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Transcript View/Open - Nazarbayev University
Korea Foundation
Special Lectures on Korea 2015
Jung Soo SEO
KAC, Keimyung University
Daegu Korea
October 22, 2015
Nazarbayev University
On the 70th Anniversary of Korea’s independence from Japanese
Annexation, NSO released some interesting statistics for Korea
Population ('15, estimation)
GDP(current
prices)('14)(Billion Won)
GDP Per capita (current
prices)('14)(0,000 Won)
Life Expectancy ('13)
Internet Users (per 100)
('14)(%)
Foreign Reserve ('15.07)(US$
million)
Goods Exports('14) (US$
1,485,078.0
million)
50,617,045
370,822.3
572,664.7
2,968.0 Goods Imports('14) (US$ million)525,514.5
No of Automobile
Registration ('14)
Current Account Balance
83.6
('15.06) (US$million)
81.94
20,117,955
12,186.5
Source: statistics.kr
2
These figures place Korea in 2014 as
7th
largest trading countries by exports &
imports (IMF WEO DB)
13th largest economy by GDP (IMF WEO DB)
13th highest internet penetration ratio (World
Bank WDI DB)
27th largest country by population size (World
Bank WDI DB)
31th richest economy by GDP per capita (IMF
WEO DB)
3
Rank
Country
GDP(US$M)
Rank
Country
GDP(US$M)
1
United
States
17,418.93
11
Canada
1,788.72
2
China
10,380.38
12
Australia
1,444.19
3
Japan
4,616.34
13
Korea
1,416.95
4
Germany
3,859.55
14
Spain
1,406.86
5
United
Kingdom
2,945.15
15
Mexico
1,282.73
6
France
2,846.89
16
Indonesia
888.648
7
Brazil
2,353.03
17
Netherlands
866.354
8
Italy
2,147.95
18
Turkey
806.108
9
India
2,049.50
19
Saudi Arabia
752.459
10
Russia
1,857.46
20
Switzerland
712.05
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database
4
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Luxembourg
Norway
Qatar
Switzerland
Australia
Denmark
Sweden
San Marino
Singapore
United States
Ireland
Netherlands
Austria
Iceland
Canada
Finland
Belgium
Germany
United Kingdom
France
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database
111,716.27
97,013.26
93,965.18
87,475.46
61,219.16
60,563.62
58,491.47
56,820.02
56,319.34
54,596.65
53,461.97
51,372.96
51,306.67
51,261.88
50,397.86
49,496.72
47,721.59
47,589.97
45,653.41
44,538.15
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
New Zealand
United Arab Emirates
Kuwait
Hong Kong SAR
Israel
Brunei Darussalam
Japan
Italy
Spain
Bahrain
Korea
Cyprus
Malta
Saudi Arabia
The Bahamas
Slovenia
Taiwan Province of China
Portugal
Greece
Trinidad and Tobago
43,837.29
43,179.78
43,103.34
39,871.10
36,990.98
36,606.83
36,331.74
35,823.22
30,278.35
28,271.75
28,100.72
26,115.46
24,876.20
24,454.02
24,034.19
24,019.25
22,597.73
22,130.49
21,653.08
21,310.83
5
It is also indicated that
Korea’s GDP in 2014 is 31,108 folds bigger than
that in 1953
GDP per capita 424 times larger than that in 1953
Korea’s exports (merchandise) in 2014 was 22,907
times larger than that in 1956
Korea’s imports (merchandise) in 2014 was 1361
folds bigger than that in 1956
Thus making Korea’s external merchandise trade
2672 times larger that in 1956
8
But Korea is small in size of area
with a slightly over 100,000km2 of land area, ranked 109th in
size
Smaller than Victoria but 1.5 times bigger than Tasmania
Arable land is roughly 17% of the area
Not well endowed with natural resources
With a very high imported energy dependence ratio of 95.6%
Country Size by Area ('14)
(km2)
Population Density ('13)
(persons/㎢)
100,284
515.9
Import Energy Dependence
('15.04)(%)
Arable Land('14)(ha)
95.6
1,691,113
Source: Statistics Korea
9
Still confronting with hostile North Korea
The devastated economy during the Korean War
(1950-1953)
Short Lived but extremely bloody
Life loss(incl. deceased, casualties & missing): 2.81 million
lives
S. Korea: 650,000 & UN: 150,000
N. Korea: 800,000 & Chinese: 1230,000
Refuges: more than ½ total population
Highly Destructive to industrial production capacity
42% of S. Korea’s manufacturing
60% of N. Korea’s industries
And surrounded with super powers: US, China,
Japan and Russia
10
Geopolitics of Korea
Russia
Kazakhstan
DPRK
USA
China
Source: googlemap
Japan
RoK
11
Korean Economy is
The Miracle on the Han River (World Bank, 1993)
Asia’s Latest Miracle(Times, 2011.11.15)
How did Korea achieve such a miraculous
economic growth?
12
13
Average Growth Rate,1953-1960
Resulting Market Saturation
National Priority Goal: Reunification of Korean
Peninsula
Source of Economic Growth?
5.3%p.a.
Foreign Assistance from US
Growth Strategy?
Industrialization & Inward Looking
Import Substitution
14
15
Political Leadership Committed to Economic
Development
Came into power: 1961 Military Coup
Government-Led Economic Development
1st Five-Year Economic Development Plan(FYEDP) (1962-1966)
& 2nd FYEDP
Average Economic Growth Rate (1962-1971): 9.9% p.a.
Growth Strategy
Outward Looking & Export Promotion
Manufacturing; Labor Intensive manufacturing
16
Policies and Incentives
How to make export competitive?
“Getting Prices Right”
Unified Exchange Rate System (1961)
Devaluation of Korean Currency by 50% (1964)
Tax Concessions
Import Liberalization
Free import of materials and equipment used for export activities
Negative Import List System (1967)
Generous waste allowance for export business
17
Policies and Incentives
How
to make export competitive?
“Getting Prices Right”
Unified Exchange Rate System (1961)
Devaluation of Korean Currency by 50% (1964)
Tax
Concessions
Free import of materials and equipment used for
export activities
Generous waste allowance for export business
18
Policies and Incentives
Non-Pecuniary
Export Target
Monthly Export Meeting convened by President
Social Respect
Normalization
of Diplomatic Relationship with
Japan (1965)
Foreign Capital
Export Market
Source of Advanced Technology
19
Selection of Items
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971
Gross domestic product (current prices, won) (Bil .Won)
301.65 365.81 518.47 739.59 831.25 1,065.87 1,313.26 1,692.34 2,211.86 2,794.80 3,433.30
Per capita GDP (current prices, dollar) (U$)
Gross domestic product (%)
Exports of goods and services (%)
Imports of goods and services (%)
Gross saving ratio (%)
Gross domestic investment ratio (%)
Exports of goods and services (%)
(Goods) (%)
Imports of goods and services (%)
(Goods) (%)
84.0
6.9
4.0
14.0
10.7
11.7
5.2
1.7
13.8
11.8
Population
90.0
3.8
3.9
15.6
10.1
13.1
5.0
1.9
15.4
13.6
103.0
9.2
3.9
14.7
13.8
17.8
4.8
2.8
14.6
12.9
106.0
9.5
5.0
12.4
13.5
14.7
6.0
3.6
12.3
10.8
108.0
7.2
7.1
14.3
12.5
14.0
8.5
5.2
14.2
12.4
128.0
12.0
8.4
18.2
16.2
20.6
10.5
5.8
18.1
16.1
145.0
9.1
9.1
19.7
15.6
21.1
12.1
6.0
19.5
17.1
174.0
13.2
10.1
22.6
18.1
25.9
12.9
6.8
22.5
19.6
216.0
14.5
10.6
22.5
21.0
28.8
13.4
7.3
22.5
19.5
253.0
10.0
11.4
21.1
18.4
25.7
13.8
8.5
21.7
18.4
290.0
10.5
12.7
23.0
15.6
25.2
14.6
10.0
24.2
20.4
25765673 26513030 27261747 27984155 28704674 29435571 30130983 30838302 31544266 32240827 32882704
20
1972-1981 Average Growth Rate: 9.0% p.a.
3rd
(1972-1976) and 4th (1977-1981) Five
Economic Development
Creating Comparative Advantage
Heavy Government Intervention
By promoting Heavy and Chemical Industries
Iron & Steel, Non-Ferrous Metal, Shipbuilding,
Petrochemical, Machinery and Electrical
Capital-Intensive & Energy-Intensive
21
Backgrounds
Losing comparative advantage & Needs to Upgrade
Industrial & Export Structure
due to rapidly rising wages
Catching-up by ASEAN
Protectionist barriers against NIES’ export
Non-Economic and Political Reasons
The Nixon Doctrine (1969)
Koreanization of Korean Security: Withdrwal of US troops from
Korea
The fall of Vietnam (1975)
22
Policies Used
“Carrots
and Sticks”
Government Subsidies and Tax Concession
Preferential & Policy loans to HCI
Negative interest rate, combined with higher
inflation rate
Easy excess to foreign capital with government
guarantee
Protection
of HCI against import
2nd stage import substitution
23
Policies Used
“Carrots
and Sticks”
Export Promotion by promoting large firms
Created General Trading Companies
Samsung (1975)
Highly Restrictive export target
1975: US$50 million; 1979: US$301 million
In returns for substantial rewards including cash subsidies
for export earnings
SMEs
were discriminated
24
Selection of Items
1972 1973 1974 1975
Gross domestic product (current prices, won) (Bil .Won)
4,259.80 5,513.50 7,879.90 10,505.10 14,413.20 18,520.30 25,023.10 32,218.90 39,471.30 49,324.00
Per capita GDP (current prices, dollar) (U$)
Gross domestic product (%)
Exports of goods and services (%)
Imports of goods and services (%)
Gross saving ratio (%)
Gross domestic investment ratio (%)
Exports of goods and services (%)
(Goods) (%)
Imports of goods and services (%)
(Goods) (%)
Population
324.0
7.2
16.6
21.5
17.5
21.2
18.3
13.8
23.0
19.0
406.0
14.8
23.9
27.7
22.9
25.7
25.6
20.2
29.3
24.7
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
562.0 615.0 831.0 1,051.0 1,452.0 1,713.0 1,703.0 1,870.0
9.5 7.9 13.1 12.3 10.8 8.6 -1.7 7.2
22.3 22.7 25.6 26.0 24.9 23.5 28.5 30.0
33.4 31.4 28.4 27.9 29.2 30.9 37.1 37.2
22.2 19.5 25.1 28.6 31.3 30.6 25.4 24.9
32.3 29.1 27.5 30.6 34.2 38.0 34.6 32.7
24.3 24.2 27.0 27.8 27.2 25.8 32.1 34.3
19.4 20.2 22.9 23.0 22.1 20.6 25.1 26.5
35.0 33.9 30.4 30.1 31.3 33.5 41.9 43.2
30.0 28.3 25.7 25.2 26.2 27.8 33.1 33.3
33505406 34103149 34692266 35280725 35848523 36411795 36969185 37534236 38123775 38723248
25
Five Year Economic Development changed
to Five Year Economic and Social
Development
6th
(1982-1986) & 7th (1986-1991) FYESDP
Emphasizing Stability, Balance, Efficiency
Through Stable Prices, Openness, Competition, Social
Development, Social Welfare
Average
Growth Rate 1982-1991: 10.2% p.a.
26
Backgrounds for Switch Over
Internal Pressure
Sectorial Imbalance and Social Inefficiency
Associated with HCI Drive & Moral Hazard
Socialization of Private Risk
Excessive Capacity with Lower Capacity Utilization: 20%
Political Instability
Assassination of President & 2nd Military Coup
Poor Harvest
High Inflation associated with Rapidly rising international oil and
resources prices
External Pressures
High International Interest Rate
Slowdown of Global Economy
27
General Policy Stance
To correct excesses and imbalances
From export earnings to enhanced international
competitiveness
By giving more private initiatives
Continuing liberalization
Unilateral Import Liberalization
Privatization of banks by selling government shares(1981 &
1983)
Retained the gov’t right to appoint CEOs of commercial banks
Privatization of Interest rate (1988)
Introduction of a negative list system for Inward FDI (1984)
28
Political Liberalization
June 29 Declaration of Democratization (1987)
1st Democratic Change of Government
Accompanied Massive Industrial Dispute & Outward FDI
Hyper Economic Growth (1985-1988): 11%
p.a.
Due to favourable external conditions: “3 Lows” or “3
Blessings”
Low International Interest Rate
Low Currency Value
Low International Oil and Resource Prices
29
30
8th FYESDP (19912-1996)
Crisis
Hit the Korean Economy (1997-1998) &
Massive Economic and Social Reforms were
Conducted
Average Growth Rate (1992-1996): 7.2% p.a.
Background
International Competitiveness Eroded
Due to fast rising wages
Growth of Nominal Wages: over 19% p.a.
Revaluation of Currency by 8.65% (1987-1989)
31
8th FYESDP (1992-1996)
Background
Slowdown of the Economy
Consumption-led Growth
Current Account turned in deficit again
Further Acceleration of Globalization
Capital Account Liberalization
Korea Joined OECD in 1996
32
Crisis Hit the Korean Economy in 1997
Massive
contraction of the Korean economy
By - 5.5%
The Value of Currency Plummeted
By 40% in1998, relative to that in 1997
Unemployment skyrocketed
Unemployment rate in 1998: 7%
2.6% (1997)
No of the unemployed in 1998: 1.49 million people
0.57million (1997)
33
Reforms conducted
Corporate sector reforms including Chaebols
Big deals
Public Sector
More Foreign firms’ investment
Increased FDI, especially M&As
Government-led Reforms
Reforms slowed down with a quick economic recovery
9.6% p.a. Growth Rate (1999-2000)
34
35
In the Post Asian Financial Crisis period: Globalization and
Regional Trading Agreement (RTAs)
Actively Pursuing Free Trade Agreements
Background
Substantial Slowdown of Korean Economy
Average Economic Growth Rate (2001-2014): 4% p.a
Slow Down of Population Growth and Aging
Average Population Growth Rate (2001-2014): 0.5%
People with 65 and Older: 13%
RTAs expanding rapidly,
esp. since the establishment of WTO(Jan1,1995)
604 RTAs Reported to WTO & 398 RTAs are being effective (January, 2015)
Free Trade Agreement (FTA): 220 (58%)
36
Source: WTO (http://wto.org/english/tratop_e/region_e/regfac_e.htm)
Korea’s FTA Status:
FTAs
in force (11)
Chile, Singapore, EFTA(4), ASEAN(10), India, EU,
Peru, USA, Turkey, Australia, Canada
FTAs
signed (5)
Columbia, Turkey, China, New Zealand, Viet Nam
38
Chile
April, 2004
Singapore
March, 2006
EFTA(4 countries)
India
September 2006 9(*EFTA: Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, Lichtenstein )
Goods Trade Agreementin June 2007, & Service Trade Agreement in
May 2005, Investment Agreement in September 2009 (*ASEAN 10
Countries)
January, 2010
EU(28)
July 2011 (EU 28 countries)
Peru
Agust, 2011
USA
Turkey (Base Agreement
&Goods Trade)
Australia
March, 2012
Canada
January, 2015
Columbia
Signed Feb.21, 2013
ASEAN(10 countries)
In-Force (11
FTAs)
May, 2013
December, 2014
Turkey(Service & Investment) Signed (provisional) July 2014
Signed(5)
China
June 1, 2015
New Zealand
Signed (Provisional) December 11, 2014
Viet Nam
December 10, 2014
Indonesia
Negotiating 7 time since March 28, 2012
In negotiation (3) Korea-China-Japan
RCEP
Suspension and
Resume
negotiation
Japan
Source: Customs, Korea
Negotiating 6 times since November 20,2012
Negotiating 6 times since November 20, 2012 At East Asia Summit
(*RCEP : Korea,China, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, ASEAN)
Started Negotiation in December 2003 and Negotiation is in suspension in
November 2004; 9times meetings to resume the negotiation during 20082012
39
Export (US
$ million)
Import
(US$
million)
Export (%) Import (%)
With FTA Partners
253,334
206,874
45.6%
40.1%
With FTA signed
Partners
169,790
91,830
30.6%
17.8%
Total Trade
555,632
515,586
40
Korea actively participated bilateral free trade agreement as well
as mega-regional trade agreement such as RCEP or TPP
Shifting Korea’s Trade Policy paradigm
Why?
To reduce costs associated with the Spaghetti Bowl Effect
Asia is the most active in Global Supply Chain Management
Need to help firms to improve efficiency in production
To counteract the possible trade diversion effect of megatrading blocs such as EU,NAFTA, MERCOSUR etc.
To Tone down regional security threats
Can Korea-Kazakhstan be Partners in the era of FTAs and Mega
FTAs?
41
42
How Did Korea Achieve it?
7.5% p.a. Economic Growth Rate (1953-2014)
With a fairer income distribution
Significant Structural Changes
Gini Coefficient: 0.344 (1965) => 0.307 (2012)
From Primary to Industry
From Light Manufacturing to Capital Intensive and Technology Intensive
Why?
Leaders Committed to Economic Growth and Development
Accountability and transparency in International Economic and Trade Policy
Outward Orientation
Globalization through a main level of openness
Strategic, Pro-active Policy makings
Competitive Macroeconomic Policy
Promoting Competition
43
Rapid economic growth
Accompanied a Fair Income Distribution: Gini Coefficient
1965
1970
1976
0.344
0.332
0.391
1990~19
97
0.281~0.
0.357
295
1982
1998
1999
2000
2001
2006
2012
0.316
0.32
0.317
0.319
0.306
0.307
Significant structural changes
In Outputs
In exports
Agriculture-Industry-Service
Primary – Manufacturing
L-intensive-K-intensive-Knowledge-intensive
Export Share (%)
Primary
Light Manufacturing
Heavy and Chemical Manufacturing
IT
Others
1962
27.5
63.4
9.1
1972
10.3
56.3
33.4
1977 1982 1987 1991 2001 2011 2014
13.8
7.9 6.0
3.5
2.7 2.8
2.2
52.2 43.5 42.3 36.5 16.4 6.2
6.4
34.0 48.6 51.7
60 80.9
91 91.4
15.4
27 22.4 23.9
44.6 53.9 68.6 67.5
44
1953
Primary(Agriculture,
Forestry & Fishery)
1962
1971
1981
1991
2001
2011
2014
30.1% 25.9% 16.6% 9.8%
4.9%
3.3%
2.3%
2.3%
0.7%
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
Mining
2.0%
3.5%
2.7%
Manufacturing
2.8%
4.9%
9.3% 16.9% 20.9% 25.1% 31.6% 32.0%
Electricy, Gas and Water
0.1%
0.2%
0.5%
2.1%
2.2%
2.1%
Construction
3.9%
5.5% 10.0% 10.6% 12.1% 6.8%
4.7%
4.4%
Services
Source: nso.kr
1.8%
0.9%
1.6%
61.1% 60.0% 60.9% 59.9% 59.8% 62.4% 59.0% 59.1%
45
<1960s-Mid1980s>
Gov’t
<Mid 1980s-1998>
Gov’t
Busin
ess
Peop
le
Gov’t
Entrepreneurial
Leadership
Busine
ss
<Post-1998- >
Gov’t
Peop
le
Gov’t Leadership
& Business Power
Busines
s
People
Gov’t Leadership
& Business Power &
People Power
46
47
Kazakhstan and Korea: Now
Area (km2) (ranking)
Agricultural Land (%)
Population (million; 2015) (ranking)
65 and overs (%)
Life Expectancy (years)
Population Growth Rate (%; 2014)
Birth Rate (per 1000 popltn) (ranking)
Fertility Rate(child born per woman)
(ranking)
GDP (US$)
Exports (US$)
Major Export Products
Imports (US$ Billion)
Major Import Products
Major Natural Resources Reserves
(ranking)
Mobile Phone (2014)
Internet Users (2014) (ranking)
% of Population
Military Expenditure (% of GDP)
(2012)
Source: ciafactbook
Kazakhstan
2,724,900 (9th)
77.4
18.2(61th)
7.17
70.6
1.14
Korea
99720 (109th)
18.1
49.1 (28th)
13.00
80
0.14
19.15 (19th)
8.19 (220th)
2.31 (92th)
1.25 (220th)
212.3 billion
87.3 billion
46.7 billion
machinery and equipment, metal
products, foodstuff
1.41 trillion
572.7 billion
semiconductors, petrochemicals,
automobile/parts, ships, wireless
communication equipment, flat
display, steels,
525.5 billion
crude oil, petroleum products,
semiconductors, coal, steel
Crude Oil: 30 billion barrel (12th)
Crude oil: 0 barrel
Natural Gas: 2.407 trillion m3 (15th)
28 million
10.6 million (45th)
59.3
5.748 billion m3 (89th)
57.2 million
44.9 million (13th)
91.5
1.21
2.8
oil and oil products, natural gas,
ferrous metals, chemicals, machinery
48
(USB$
)
Source: Korea Customs
Source: Korea Customs
Source: Koreaexim Bank
51
Korea’s F야 by Industry (1980-2014)
(Invested Amount)(US$M)
Manufacturing
31,044, 11%
Mining
19,152, 7%
99,112, 35%
22,467, 8%
Whole Sales and Retails
Banking and Insurance
25,310, 9%
Reality and Lease
30,872, 11%
52,962, 19%
Source: Koreaexim Bank
Speciality, Science and
Technology Service
Others
52
Korea-Kazakhstan Diplomatic Relationship
January 28, 1992
Korea-Kazakhstan Trade has expanded rapidly
US$88 million (1993) to US$1468 million(2014)
Exports
US$41million(1993) to US$907 million (2014)
Imports
US$ 47 million (1993) to US$ 561 million (2014)
But still remained below its potential
Year
Export (USM$)
Import (USM$)
Total Trade (USM$)
1993
41
104
57
82
273
604
1,074
907
47
31
51
49
242
334
249
561
88
135
108
131
515
938
1,323
1,468
1998
1999
2000
2005
2010
2013
2014
Source: kita.net
53
Source: kita.net
54
Products (SITC 2 digit)
Imports
Growth Rate (%)
Total
560,771
209.9
1
33
Petroleum and Petroleum Products
372,193
-
2
67
95,808
0.1
3
52
72,228
2.9
4
68
13,022
5.0
5
29
6,948
-0.1
6
89
Steel and Iron
Inorganic Chemicals
Non-ferrous Metal
Non specified Unprocessed meat and
vegetables
Miscellaneous n.e.s
155
75.2
7
59
Chemical Products, n.e.s.
137
-54.7
8
77
Electrical Apparatus and Machinery
80
-30.2
9
26
Textile and Textile Waste
49
-
Industrial Machinery and Equipment
46
-
10
74
Source:
kita.net
Source: kita.net
55
Products(SITC2 digit)
Exports
(US’000)
906,958
Growth Rate
(%)
268.6
388,723
267.4
62,270
34.1
1
78
2
57
Total
Automobile
Plastics(Materials)
3
76
Communication and Recording Equipment
61,692
52.3
4
77
Electrical Machinery and Equipment
53,077
131.2
5
87
46,981
32.6
6
72
46,832
28.3
7
67
Other Scientific and Control Apparatus and
Equipment
Special Industrial Machinery
Steel and Iron
36,308
108.7
8
74
Industrial Machinery and Equipment
35,129
68.8
9
82
Furniture, Bedding, Mattress etc.
18,418
-4.2
10
09
Other Food and Food stuffs
16,906
6.2
Source: kita.net
56
Industry & Sectors
Finance & Insurance
Construction
Manufacturing
Reality and Lease
Mining
Electricity, Gas and Water
Publishing, Broadcasting and Information Services
Wholesale and Retails
Transportation
Art, Sports and Leasures
Argiculture, Foresty and Fishery
Hotel and Restaurants
Special Scientific and Technology Services
Total
Invested Amount (US$'000) Share (%)
712,062
29.1%
418,546
17.1%
380,832
15.6%
268,457
11.0%
219,120
9.0%
156,039
6.4%
141,268
5.8%
65,730
2.7%
52,279
2.1%
23,103
0.9%
5,508
0.2%
2,088
0.1%
2,024
0.1%
In total , US$ 2.45 billion
Finance & Insurance
(29.1%)
Construction (17.1%)
Manufacturing (15.6%)
Realty and Lease (11.0%)
2,447,216
Source: kita.net
57
Economic partnership between Korea and
Kazakhstan
In trade and FDI: getting stronger but remained
less than its potential
Why?
Lack of mutual understanding
Other reasons?
How?
58
59