Transcript Philippines - ESCO Country Report Yr 2011_final

2011 SEAISI Economic, Environmental &
Safety Seminar
Nov. 21-22, 2011 • Hotel Istana, Kuala Lumpur City Centre,
Malaysia
Philippines
COUNTRY REPORT
Presented by: JOEL T. RONQUILLO
Philippine Iron and Steel Institute
ECONOMIC UPDATES:
• World steel demand is projected to be 1,340
million tons in 2011 (an increase of 5.30%
from 2010).
• Apparent steel consumption growth of 14%
(4.02M tons in 2010 vs 3.53M tons in 2009).
• GDP posted a 7.3% growth in 2010.
• Government forecasted a 7-8% GDP growth in
2011.
GDP Growth by Sector, 2008-2010
2008
2009
2010
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
3.7
1.1
7.3
Agriculture, Fishery and Forestry
3.1
0
(0.5)
Industry
4.9
(0.9)
12.1
Mining and Quarrying
1.9
21.5
18.4
Manufacturing
4.2
(4.4)
12.3
Construction
7.6
9.8
10.5
Electricity, Gas and Water
7.3
(2.9)
8.5
3.1
2.8
7.1
Transport, Comm., Storage
4.2
0.6
1.9
Trade
1.2
1
10.7
Finance
2.5
5.9
6.5
Ownership of Dwelling and Real Estate
5.8
(0.3)
6.8
Private Services
4.9
6.4
8.8
3
6.1
1.7
Services
Government Services
Performance of the Steel Industry in 2010
Apparent steel consumption reached 4.02 million MT in
2010, growing by 14% compared to 3.53 million MT in 2009.
Apparent Steel Consumption (1990-2010)
In Million Metric Tons
4.5
5.0
4.2
4.5
million metric tons
4.0
3.4
3.5
3.0
2.5
3.7
2.5
1.7
1.9
2.5
3.3
3.0
3.0
3.3
4.0
3.5
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.4
3.3
3.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Comparative Steel Demand
2009
2010
Construction
Construction
81%
81%
Light &
Heavy
Others Packaging Fabrication
1%
4%
14%
Others
1% Packaging
4%
Light &
Heavy
Fabrication
14%
Summary of Key Steel Statistics
In Metric Tons
2010
2009
Yr-Yr
Change
CRUDE STEEL PRODUCTION
1,235,294
969,412
27%
FINISHED STEEL PRODUCTION
2,762,221
2,773,736
(0.4%)
FINISHED STEEL IMPORT
1,989,442
1,711,016
16%
FINISHED STEEL EXPORT
104,836
73,768
42%
4,017,118
3,530,034
14%
APPARENT STEEL CONSUMPTION
Adjusted for double counting
Apparent Consumption:
SEMI-FINISHED STEEL
In Metric Tons
2010
2009
BILLETS
Production
Import
Export
Apparent Consumption
SLABS
Production
Import
Export
Apparent Consumption
1,050,000
1,169,998
2,219,998
824,000
1,117,789
1,941,789
-
64,286
64,286
-
Yr-Yr
Change
27%
5%
14%
(100%)
(100%)
Sources: Bureau of Customs (BOC), Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) and Industry Sources
Apparent Consumption:
FINISHED STEEL
In Metric Tons
2010
LONG PRODUCTS
Production12
Import
Export
Apparent Consumption
FLAT PRODUCTS
Production1
Import
Export
Apparent Consumption
Yr-Yr
2009
Change
2,132,512
642,827
829
2,774,510
1,790,724
465,285
320
2,255,689
19%
38%
159%
23%
0
1,346,615
104,006
1,242,609
102,062
1,245,731
73,448
1,274,345
(100%)
8%
42%
(2%)
Sources: Bureau of Customs (BOC), Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) and Industry Sources
1
Covers hot rolled products only in order to avoid double counting
2 Excludes
bar products converted from wire rods
Breakdown of Finished Steel Production
in MT (2010 vs. 2009)
In Metric Tons
Yr-Yr
2010
2009
2,508,218
2,216,500
13%
2,092,548
1,848,469
13%
Shapes and Sections1
201,074
179,065
12%
Wires
214,596
188,966
14%
254,003
557,236
(54%)
-
102,062
(100%)
5,552
104,477
(95%)
198,095
293,179
(32%)
50,356
57,518
(12%)
LONG PRODUCTS
Bars1
FLAT PRODUCTS
Hot Rolled Coils
Cold Rolled Coils
GI/Pre-painted/Zn-Al Coated Sheets
Pipes and Tubes2
Source: Industry Sources
1 Includes
bar products converted from wire rods
2 2009 figures are revised due to new available information
Change
Breakdown of Finished Steel Imports
in MT (2010 vs. 2009)
In Metric Tons
2010
2009
Long Products
Wire Rods
Bars
Shapes and Sections
Sheet Piles
Wires
Rails
Others (Alloy & Stainless Steels)
Flat Products
Plates
Hot Rolled Coils/Sheets
Cold Rolled Coils/Sheets
GI Sheets/ Pre-painted/Zn-Al
Tinplates/TFS
Pipes and Tubes
Others (Alloy & Stainless Steels)
Yr-Yr
Change
642,827
465,285
38%
336,854
54,831
189,771
29,946
12,503
2,174
16,748
337,730
21,722
56,328
10,434
23,306
2,464
13,301
0%
152%
237%
187%
(46%)
(12%)
26%
1,346,615
1,245,731
275,587
214,908
292,648
231,116
188,190
121,781
22,385
326,804
277,742
211,257
150,791
151,263
98,632
29,242
Sources: Bureau of Customs (BOC), Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) and Industry Sources
8%
(16%)
(23%)
39%
53%
24%
23%
(23%)
Breakdown of Finished Steel Exports
in MT (2010 vs. 2009)
In Metric Tons
2010
2009
Yr-Yr
Change
Bars / Sections
465
189
146%
Wires
364
130
180%
Hot Rolled Coils/Sheets
21,795
12,647
72%
Cold Rolled Coils/Sheets
24,695
20,671
19%
GI Sheets/ Pre-painted/Zn-Al
40,839
37,034
10%
Pipes and Tubes
16,678
3,096
439%
104,836
73,768
42%
TOTAL
Source: National Statistics Office
Steel Projects
COMPANY
TKC Steel
LOCATION
ILigan City
(Mindanao)
Davao City
New Carcar
Manufacturing (Mindanao)
Corp.
Source: Industry Sources
DESCRIPTION
STATUS
New installation
1st Blast Furnace
400,000 mtpy
On-going testing
operation
New installation
2nd Blast Furnace
400,000 mtpy
On-going installation
Commissioning - 3Q
2012
New capacity
Bar rolling mill
400,000 mtpy
Start of construction 3Q 2011
Commissioning - 4Q
2012
Cebu
(Visayas)
New capacity
EAF to produce billets
400,000 mtpy
On-going planning
Commercial operation- Jan 2014
La Union
(Luzon)
New capacity
EAF to produce billets
400,000 mtpy
On-going planning
Commercial operation- Jan 2014
Davao del
Norte
(Mindanao)
New capacity
EAF to produce billets
400,000 mtpy
On-going planning Commercial
operation - Jan 2014
ENVIRONMENTAL UPDATES:
• 20% drop of total suspended particulates (TSP) for
the first quarter of 2011 at 131 µg/Ncm as against
163 µg/Ncm for the same period of 2010.
• 25% drop of TSP for the second quarter of 2011 at
125 µg/Ncm as against 166 µg/Ncm for the same
period of 2010.
• TSP levels recorded for the third quarter of 2011
went down further at 120 µg/Ncm.
ENVIRONMENTAL UPDATES:
• Issues on the proposed DENR Administrative Order
regarding oxygen correction factors and emission
averaging and guidelines for employing the emission
averaging approach for compliance purposes.
• Proposal from DENR to use EURO IV fuels by Jan. 01,
2016 for all new passenger and light duty motor
vehicle types.
Thank You
for
your attention!