Transcript 07_Mega_trends_Stefan_Bringezu

Research foresight for Environment and Sustainability
Workshop on mega-trends and surprises
EEA, Copenhagen, 14-15 May 2007
Environmentally important mega-trends
Stefan Bringezu
Director
Research Group Material Flows & Resource Management
Stefan Bringezu | www.wupperinst.org | Research Foresight 15-05-2007
Megatrends
 Decoupling
of economic growth and direct material and energy use
(efficiency) in all countries although with different rate
 Increasing global resource use and
environmental impacts
mainly through growth in DCs and TCs
 EU shifts resource supply and
environmental impacts to other regions
like other old-industrial countries, while improving domestic
environmental quality
Stefan Bringezu | www.wupperinst.org | Research Foresight 15-05-2007
Megatrends
 Decoupling
of economic growth and direct material and energy use
(efficiency) in all countries although with different rate
 Increasing global resource use and
environmental impacts
mainly through growth in DCs and TCs
 EU shifts resource supply and
environmental impacts to other regions
like other old-industrial countries, while improving domestic
environmental quality
Decoupling of resource use and environmental pressures
EU15
Stefan Bringezu | www.wupperinst.org | Research Foresight 15-05-2007
130 Index 1990=100
125
120
115
110
105
100
Gross domestic product at
market prices [Millions of euro
(at 1995 prices and exchange
rates)]
Gross inland energy
consumption [Thousands tonnes
of oil equivalent (TOE)]
Emissio n of greenhouse gases
[Global warming potential, CO2
equivalent, 1000 tonnes]
95
85
EMC (envi ronmentally weighted
material consumption)
[Normalised (World 95) and
equally weighted scores]
80
DMC [1000 tonnes]
90
1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002
Source: Eurostat NewCronos online database (GDP, energy, greenhouse gas emissions); van der Voet et al. 2004 (EMC); Eurostat/IFF 2004
(DMC); see also EEA Report no. 9/2005: Figure 3.3, p.20
15-05-2007
Stefan Bringezu | www.wupperinst.org | Research Foresight0647e
Decoupling aggregate material use and GDP
GDP growth p.a.: 2.3 % (EU15), 3.5 % (EU-10)
GDP growth p.a.: 1.6 % (EU15), 3.2 % (EU-10)
Technological progress needs time:
Given a certain rate of increase of material productivity
(GDP/material use) relative decoupling is higher with lower rates of
economic growth
Source: EEA report 4/2005
Stefan Bringezu | www.wupperinst.org | Research Foresight 15-05-2007
Megatrends
 Decoupling
of economic growth and direct material and energy use
(efficiency) in all countries although with different rate
 Increasing global resource use and
environmental impacts
mainly through growth in DCs and TCs
 EU shifts resource supply and
environmental impacts to other regions
like other old-industrial countries, while improving domestic
environmental quality
Worldwide used extraction of resources
90
80
70
Billion Tons
Stefan Bringezu | www.wupperinst.org | Research Foresight 15-05-2007
MOSUS Baseline scenario
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1980
Biomass
1985
Coal
1990
Crude Oil
Source: SERI; Giljum et al. 2007
1995
2000
Natural Gas
2005
2010
Metal Ores
2015
2020
Ind. & Constr. Minerals
Total material requirement and economic growth
1120
Finland
Czech
Republic
1100
USA
TMR per capita in Tons
Stefan Bringezu | www.wupperinst.org | Research Foresight 15-05-2007
TMR per cap. in t
Germany
80
Netherlands
60
EU
V P
China
40
West-Germany
West-D
J
Japan
UK
Italy
Poland
20
0
0
5
10
15
20
GDP per capita in `000 US$
25
30
35
Source: different sources and Bringezu and Schütz 2001
Stefan Bringezu | www.wupperinst.org | Research Foresight 15-05-2007
Megatrends
 Decoupling
of economic growth and direct material and energy use
(efficiency) in all countries although with different rate
 Increasing global resource use and
environmental impacts
mainly through growth in DCs and TCs
 EU shifts resource supply and
environmental impacts to other regions
I. mineral supply: geology, technology and market driven
II. shifting impacts:
(environmental) policy driven
III. biomass supply:

Stefan Bringezu | www.wupperinst.org | Research Foresight 15-05-2007
The EU has a growing net demand of foreign resources
Million tonnes
Physical trade balance of EU-15 considering
hidden flows of imports and exports
PTB
absolute
PTB of HF
PTB of TMR
trade
Source: Schütz et al. 2003
Stefan Bringezu | www.wupperinst.org | Research Foresight 15-05-2007
EC/ EU imports from developing countries
Developing countries
Newly industrialized
countries inside EUR
.
million tonnes
Newly industrialized countries
outside EUR
.
.
.
.
million tonnes
million tonnes
2500
2500
2500
2000
2000
2000
Raw materials
1500
1500
1500
Semimanuf actured
and finished goods
1000
500
1000
1000
500
500
ERs of raw materials
ERs of
semimanufactured
and finished goods
DMI total imports
0
1976
0
0
1982
1988
1994
2000
1976
1982
1988
1994
2000
1976
1982
1988
1994
2000
 The EU induces growing Ecological Rucksacks (Hidden
Flows) in other regions of the world
Source: Schütz et al. 2003
Resource intensive imports will increase
250
200
in billion US$
Stefan Bringezu | www.wupperinst.org | Research Foresight 15-05-2007
Resource-intensive imports from “Anchor countries”- MOSUS baseline EU-25
150
100
50
0
1990
1992
Turkey
1994
1996
1998
Mexico
Source: SERI; Giljum et al. 2007
2000
China
2002
2004
Indonesia
2006
India
2008
2010
Thailand
2012
2014
2016
Argentina
2018
Brasil
2020
Stefan Bringezu | www.wupperinst.org | Research Foresight 15-05-2007
Ever decreasing ore grades are going to be used
Source: U. Dorner after
PreConsultants 2002
Stefan Bringezu | www.wupperinst.org | Research Foresight 15-05-2007
Environmental Impact of Copper Mine
Ok Tedi Mine, Papua New Guinea
These images show
environmental impact of
the mine
• 1990: Both the mine and
township of Tabubil, are
clearly visible
• 2004: Raised river
beds, forest damage and
decline in biodiversity are
some impacts
Shifting problems: the case of Platinum Group Metals
1 t primary PGM used in car catalysts* would
help to avoid
Stefan Bringezu | www.wupperinst.org | Research Foresight 15-05-2007
• 51 400 t NOx
equivalent to
36 000 t SO2eq
• 2000 t CH4 (28 600 t CO2eq)
+ increased fuel
equivalent to
17 400 t CO2eq
cons. net effect
… diffusely emitted in Europe
For the production of 1 t primary PGM
• 1800 t SO2eq emissions
• 23 450 t CO2eq emissions
• 388 600 t TMReq
… occur concentrated in other regions
The use of primary PGM in Europe
implies:
• extremely high SO2 emissions in
Siberia (outdated technology for the
smelting process)
• high CO2 emissions in South Africa
(92 % of power generation from
coal)
• extreme amounts of TMR and
related mining waste
Source: Mathieu Saurat
and Stefan Bringezu
* Assumptions: 1.4-2 L cylinder capacity, Euro III, 3.5 g PGM / car, 100 000 km /
car during lifetime, -1.8 g NOx / km, -0.07 g CH4 / km, +1 g CO2 / km
Global land use for consumption of agricultural goods
Stefan Bringezu | www.wupperinst.org | Research Foresight 15-05-2007
in 1.000 m2/cap
Source: Bringezu 2005 / Steger 2005
Stefan Bringezu | www.wupperinst.org | Research Foresight 15-05-2007
Scenarios for biofuels and land use
If the EU uses 18% biofuels in 2030, it will have fuelled up
nearly total of its „fair share“ of all natural grasslands and
savannas
Additional land requirements (in 1000
m2/cap) for biofuels add to the
exceedance of global land use availability.
A significant reduction of animal based
food could provide room for the
production of non-food crops (in 1000
m²/cap).
Source: Bringezu 2005 / Steger 2005
Stefan Bringezu | www.wupperinst.org | Research Foresight 15-05-2007
Conversion of forests into
palm plantations in Papua, Indonesia
• 1990: a new human
presence, earth
colored roads provide
access to the forest
• 2000: rectilinear
patterns cover
10,000 ha
• 2002: Cleared
area nearly doubles
since 2000
Conclusions
Stefan Bringezu | www.wupperinst.org | Research Foresight 15-05-2007
We need more information on

the EU´s global resource use
- material resources
- land use
 shifts of burden to regions outside the EU
- environmental impacts
- socio-economic implications
- security issues
 potentials for absolute reduction and
a more balanced pattern of domestic and foreign
resource use