Transcript Measurement of Agricultural Output in the Australian System of

Measurement of Agricultural
Output in the Australian System
of National Accounts: Methods
and Issues
Authors: Rick Brunton and Carol Trickett
Presenter: Allan Nicholls
Australian Bureau of Statistics
Agriculture’s contribution to GVA
• Agriculture GVA is about 2% of total GVA
• However, variability of agricultural output
can have a significant impact on total GVA
• Eg in 2006-07, because of drought,
agriculture GVA fell 19% and this made a
negative contribution of 0.5% to Australia’s
GDP in 2006-07
– So GDP grew by 3.3% rather than a possible
3.8% if ag output had been stable
Main ABS data sources
• Agricultural Census – every 5 years
– Quantities of production of a large range of commodities
– Large scale survey in non-census years
• Market prices and costs
– Used to convert production quantities to values and thus
– To calculate gross value of production
• Annual Economic Activity Survey
– Economic and financial data
– Supplemented by admin data from Tax Office
• Livestock products collections – qtly
– Price and quantity information for livestock slaughterings, meat
production, exports of livestock, exports of meat, whole milk
intake, market milk sales and wool receivals by brokers
Australian Bureau of Agricultural
and Resource Economics (ABARE)
• Annual farm surveys
– Broadacre crops, livestock and dairy only
– Farm production, farm costs and prices
• Commodity production and value forecasts up to
5 years out
• Forecasts are used initially in the national
accounts and progressively replaced as actual
data becomes available
• Farm costs important in measurement of
intermediate input costs
Components of agricultural national
accounts estimates
• Cereal and non-cereal crops
• Livestock
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Slaughterings
Exports
Capitalised livestock
Work in progress livestock
• Livestock products
• Services to agriculture
• Other components
– Output for own consumption
– Production valuation adjustment
Cereal and non-cereal crops
• Wheat and barley are main contributors
• Annual estimates
– Annual production quantities obtained from annual agricultural
survey/census
– Quantity data is revalued to current prices using data from the
market prices survey
• Quarterly estimates
– Qtly information on wheat receivals used to allocate annual
production to qtrs
– For other cereal and non-cereal crops, annual production is
allocated to qtrs using fixed harvesting ratios
– Quantity data is revalued to current prices using data from the
market prices survey
Livestock
• Livestock slaughterings and live exports
– Qtly data obtained from direct collection
– Annual derived from annualised qtly data
• Annual capitalised livestock (for beef, sheep and
dairy cattle)
– Calculated as acquisitions less disposals
– Acquisitions estimated using agricultural
survey/census data on animals raised for breeding
purposes
– Disposals estimated from slaughterings data
• Quarterly capitalised livestock derived by
allocating annual figure equally across qtrs
Livestock, ctd
• Work in progress livestock (beef, sheep
and dairy cattle)
– Annual estimates based on data from the
annual ag survey/census on numbers of
animals less than one year in age
– Quarterly estimates based on allocating the
annual figure equally across qtrs
Livestock products
• Comprise wool, milk, eggs and honey
• Wool
– Qtly estimated from wool receivals colln
• But adjusted to account for timing differences between when
wool is shorn and sent to brokers
– Annual estimates use annualised qtly data
• Milk
– Qtly estimated from data on raw milk processed in
factories
– Annual estimates use annualised qtly data
Livestock products, ctd
• Eggs
– Annual data sourced from annual ag survey/census
– Quarterly estimates based on allocating the annual
figure equally across qtrs
• Honey
– Annual data last collected in ag survey in 2001-02
– Annual data since then extrapolated using a honey
production index published by ABARE
– Quarterly estimates based on allocating the annual
figure across qtrs based on historical ratios
Services to Agriculture
• Annual estimates based on data from the
annual Economic Activity Survey
• Quarterly estimates based on allocating
the annual figure equally across qtrs
– Except for sheep shearing where the
allocation is based on shorn wool production
Other components
• Output for own consumption
– Benchmark data from a 1991-92 survey of
home production of selected foodstuffs
– Qtly estimates extrapolated using movement
in the food category for qtly household final
consumption expenditure
– Annual estimates based on annualised
quarterly data
Production valuation adjustment
• Used for wheat and wool
– These commodities are historically sold
through marketing authorities
• Initial prices based on expected sales
• Final prices not available until actual sales
– For details of the adjustment used, please
refer to the paper
Intermediate input costs
• These are subtracted from the gross value of
agricultural production to arrive at value added
at producer prices
• Four components – marketing costs, seed costs,
fodder costs & other input costs
• Marketing costs
– Annual based on data collected in the marketing
costs survey
– Quarterly derived by allocating annual based on
production profiles for relevant commodities
Intermediate input costs, ctd
• Seed Costs
– Annual based on seed price (in previous
year), area planted and yield
– Qtly derived by allocating annual based on
fixed quarterly seed planting ratios
• Fodder costs
– Separate estimation methods for Hay,
Manufactured fodder & Grains are detailed in
the paper
Other input costs
• Contribute about 65% of total intermediate
input costs
• Include costs of chemicals, electricity,
fertilisers, fuel, insurance, repairs and
maintenance & services to agriculture
• Estimates for most components are based
on data from ABAREs farm surveys
Taxes less subsidies on products
• Needed to derive gross value added at
basic prices
• Currently an area of weakness in the
accounts
• Estimated using data from the Economic
Activity Survey, Australian Tax Office data
and commodity production related
indicators
Seasonal adjustment
• Because production of most cereals is
almost exclusively in the December and
March qtrs, difficulties can arise with
seasonal adjustment
• A special method of seasonal adjustment
is applied to cereals production and to
wheat marketing costs
• Details are in the paper
Secondary production
• Main measurement issue facing Australia
• In the agriculture industry, secondary
production may include transport services
and accommodation services for tourists
• Secondary production activity is captured
in aggregate through the annual Economic
Activity Survey, but it is difficult to allocate
this secondary production to products
Double counting of outputs
• May occur in vertically integrated
businesses which have agriculture activity,
but whose predominant activity is not
agriculture
• The annual agriculture survey/census
includes these units, as does the annual
economic activity survey.
• Currently an area of weakness
Own account capital formation
• Includes fences, sheds, dams, etc
• Partly captured through the annual
Economic Activity Survey
– But sample size is relatively small
– Very small units based on tax data which
does not provide this type of information
• So there is an undercoverage of this
activity for agriculture
Crops – time of recording in output
and GDP
• SNA93 recommends crops be included in
output as work-in-progress or gross fixed
capital formation over the entire period of
growth
• Australian treatment includes crops in
output at time of harvest – we do not have
the data necessary to implement SNA93
treatment
Thank You