Transcript 121120_vilnius_-_ec_outlook

Global Economic Outlook 2013:
A Long Way Ahead
DNB, Vilnius, Tuesday 20/11/12
Chief Economist Øystein Dørum, DNB Markets
Starting point: Some fundamental questions
•
•
•
•
•
•
What has happened?
Where are we?
Where are we going?
What are central banks doing?
What may go wrong?
(Will the Eurozone dissolve?)
OECD: Boom to bust via upswing to slowing
OECD-GDP
Private debt
Percent of GDP
6
250
4
225
2
200
0
175
-2
150
-4
125
100
Q2 2000
-6
Q2 2003
USA
Portugal
Q2 2006
UK
Spain
Kilde: Thomson Datastream/ DNB Markets
Q2 2009
Q2 2012
Ireland
Denmark
-8
-10
Q1 2000
0
Q1 2005
Source: OECD/Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets
Q1 2010
Where are we? Slowing in OECD economies…
GDP, seasonally adjusted
PMI manufacturing
Percent change since 2008Q1
65
4
60
2
55
0
50
-2
45
-4
40
-6
35
30
Nov-08
-8
Nov-09
USA
Nov-10
EMU
Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets
Nov-11
UK
Nov-12
Japan
-10
Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012
OECD
US
Japan
EZ
UK
Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets
4
…as well as in the EMEs
GDP
15
12
9
6
3
0
-3
-6
-9
-12
Q3 2006
China
Percent change y/y
Q3 2008
India
Q3 2010
Russia
Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets
Q3 2012
Br.
Korea
Markets: From hope to despair and back again…
10y government bonds
Equities and bank CDS
1000
600
950
500
7
6
400
5
300
4
900
3
850
200
800
750
Nov-09
8
100
Nov-10
MSCI World Index
Source: Thomson Datastream,/DNB Markets
Nov-11
0
Nov-12
5y CDS (rha)
2
1
0
Nov-11
Feb-12
US
May-12
Aug-12
Nwy.
Spain
Ger.
Source: Thomson Reuters/DNB Markets
Italy
Advanced economies: A lost decade?
Advanced economies: Output gap
GDP. Volume
10
Percent change year/year
Percent of potential GDP
1
4.0
0.8
2.0
4
0.6
0.0
2
0.4
-2.0
0.2
-4.0
8
6
0
-2
-4
0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
World
Advanced
Source: IM F WEO/Thomson Datastream/DNB M arkets
Emerging
-6.0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
OECD
IMF (to 2013, ow n estimates thereafter)
Source: OECD/IM F/Thomson Datastream/DNB
M arkets
Large budget cuts… but debt does not disappear
Cyclically adjusted primary balance
Public debt
Percent of GDP. Change y/y
Percent of GDP
20
120
16
100
12
80
8
60
4
40
0
20
-4
-8
OC EZ Ge Sw No Jp US UK Fr Pt Sp Ir Gr
2009
2010
2011
Source: IMF Fiscal Monitor/DNB Markets
2012
2013
2014-17
0
1900
1920
1940
1960
Advanced
Source: IMF WEO 2012-2/DNB Markets
1980
US
2000
EZ
2020
Growth… but unemployment is stuck
OECD: Labour Market
Unemployment
US+EZ+Japan+UK
Per cent of labour force
385
10
380
9
60
50
40
375
8
370
7
20
365
6
10
360
Q3 2002
Q3 2007
Mill. employed
Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets
5
Q3 2012
Unemployment rate (rha)
30
0
Oct-02
Oct-07
Oct-12
EMU
Germany
Spain
Spain <25 y
Greece
Greece <25 y
Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets
Better for banks... but far from resolved
5 year CDS, bps
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Nov-08
Nov-09
EZ-11
Nov-10
EU banks
Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets
Nov-11
DNB
Nov-12
Deleveraging is the melody of the day
24 of 58 EU-banks will reduce activity (GFSR 2012-I)
Lending Conditions, Enterprises
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
Q3 2002
Q3 2007
EZ
Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets
Q3 2012
US
Central banks: «Whatever is necessary»
Central bank balances, t-5=100
Signal Rates
6
450
Actual/prediction 22/10/2012
400
5
350
4
300
3
250
200
2
150
1
100
0
Oct-05
Oct-08
US
UK
Oct-11
Japan
Sw eden
Source: Thomson Datastream/ DNB M arkets
Oct-14
EZ
Norw ay
50
Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12
Fed
BoE
Source: Thomson Datastream / DNB M arkets
ECB
FX markets
Flight to safety will continue, and weaken the €
EURUSD
1.50
1.50
1.45
1.45
1.40
1.40
1.35
USDJPY
110
110
105
105
100
100
1.35
95
95
1.30
1.30
90
90
1.25
1.25
85
85
1.20
1.20
80
80
1.15
1.15
75
75
1.10
14-Nov-11
fwd
1.10
14-Nov-13
14-Nov-12
CF Oct 12
PPP
Source: Thomson Reuters / Consensus Economics / DNB Markets
DNB
70
14-Nov-11
Fwd
70
14-Nov-13
14-Nov-12
DNB
CF Oct 12
Source: Thomson Reuters / Consensus Economics / DNB Markets
PPP
Shale crude provides floor at USD 70-80
China's oil imports & oil price
Oil consumption
40
160
55
35
140
50
30
120
25
100
20
80
40
15
60
35
10
40
5
20
Milion barrels/day. 12m moving average
45
30
25
Jan-00
0
0
Jan-95 Jan-00 Jan-05 Jan-10 Jan-15 Jan-20
Jan-05
OECD
Jan-10
Non-OECD
Source US EIA/ Thomson Datastream/DNB M arkets
Imports, 12mcs (la)
Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB M arkets
BB
J-12
A-12
Biggest headache: Will the Eurozone survive?
• Will survive
- Imbalances are being reduced,
- Steps towards fiscal union, improved crisis mechanisms,
- ECB stands ready
- Political commitment
- Situation will gradually improve
• But plenty of factors can derail developments
- Weakening activity
- Italian, Spanish, German politics
- Grexit?
- 5-10% probability of events "spinning out of control" (vs 30-40% one
year ago)
EZ Imbalances are being reduced (I)
Current account, euro bn
Unit Labour Costs
2000=100
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
2000
2003
Italy
Portugal
2006
Spain
Ireland
Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB M arkets
2009
2012
Greece
Germany
250
200
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
-150
-200
-250
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Gmy. Pt. Ir. It. Gr. Sp. Bg/Fr/Nl/Au
Source: Thomson Datastream / DNB M arkets
Ki l de:OECD/ T homson Datastr eam/ DnB NOR M ar kets
EZ imbalances are being reduced (II)
Eurozone deleveraging
Housing investments
Percent of GDP
16
600
15
560
14
520
6
13
480
4
2
12
440
14
12
10
8
0
Q2 2000
Q2 2005
Spain
France
Ireland
Portugal
Source: OECD/Thomson Datastream / DNB M arkets
Q2 2010
11
Q3 2002
Q3 2007
400
Q3 2012
Belgium
MFI's: Assets/capital
Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB M arkets
Enterprise debt/op.surplus
But: PIIGS going downhill, imbalances are rising
EZ periphery: GDP, seas. adjusted
Central bank claims in Eurosystem
Percent change since 2008Q1
Net. Euro billion
3
0
-3
-6
-9
-12
-15
-18
-21
Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012
Port.
Italy
Irel.
Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets
Greece
1000
-1000
800
-800
600
-600
400
-400
200
-200
0
-200
Sep/00
Spain
0
Sep/03
Sep/06
Germany
Other
Source: IMF/Thomson Datastream / DNB Markets
Sep/09
200
Sep/12
PIIGS (inv,rha)
Second headache: "Fiscal cliff"
• Fiscal cliff: Without agreement between Democrats and Republicans,
several automatic budget cuts will kick in from January 1st next year.
• CBO-baseline implies tightening of 2,5% of GDP in 2013, 3,2% in 2014
relative to alternative (where only payroll tax is abolished). Recession!
US: Federal balance
Percent of GDP unless else stated
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6
-7
-8
0
-200
-400
-600
-800
-1000
-1200
2012
2014
2016
Difference ($bn,rha)
2018
2020
Baseline
Source: Congressional Budget Office/DNB M arkets
2022
Alternative
Third headache: Chinese hard landing?
China: USDCNY and mon. policy. %
Balancing risks: Investments
Percent of GDP
49
Decreasing risk of declining
45 aggregate demand
20
8.0
15
7.5
7.0
10
6.5
5
41
6.0
0
Increasing risk of
capital
misallocation
37
33
1997
2000
2003
Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets
2006
2009
5.5
-5
Nov-06
Nov-08
USDCNY 3m/3m
Nov-10
RRR
Source: Thomson
Souirce:
Thomson Datastream/DNB
Datastream/DNB Markets
Markets
5.0
Nov-12
1y lending r. (rha)
Upside: US growth dynamics
US: Households debt and interest
payments, % of disposable income
Real income, consumption &
savings ratio, percent y/y
8
150
15
6
130
14
4
110
13
90
12
70
11
50
10
2
0
-2
-4
-6
Aug-02
Income
Aug-07
Consumption
Aug-12
Savings, 12mmav
Source: Thomson Dat ast ream/ DNB M arket s
30
Q3 1952
Debt
9
Q3 2012
Q3 1982
Trend 1950-2000
Serv.costs (rha)
Source: Thomson Dat ast ream/ DNB M arket s
USA: Housing investments
US: Housing Market Indicators
Seasonally adjusted. t-10 years = 100
1.0
7.0
0.5
6.0
0.0
5.0
-0.5
4.0
-1.0
3.0
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
Sep-92
Sep-97
Sec.home sales
Sep-02
Sep-07
C-S 10c, real
Source Thomson Dat ast ream / DNB M arket s
Sep-12
Starts
-1.5
1995
2.0
2000
2005
2010
Grow th contribution y/y, %
Source: Thomson Dat ast ream/ DNB M arket s
2015
%GDP
Summing up
• Global growth in the 3½-4% range, short-term in the lower end
• Advanced 1¼-2%, emerging 5¼-5½%
• Negative output gaps in advanced economies to 2017/18 and tight
budgets: A low inflation, low interest rate environment
• Eurozone will survive, with all its present 17 members
• Biggest downside risks: EZ collapse (5-10%), US 'fiscal cliff',
Chinese hard landing, renewed Middle East tensions
• Long-term: Structural challenges + trade wars?
• Upside risks: US growth dynamics, generally lowered risk premia
Thanks for listening!
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