Transcript International Seminar at Ottawa, Canada Seminar on Rapid Estimates

International Seminar at Ottawa, Canada
Seminar on Rapid Estimates
Session 6 – Comments on Dissemination and
communication policy for rapid estimates
Eduardo Pereira Nunes - President of Brazilian Institute of Geography and
Statistics (IBGE)
Rapid Estimates of US GDP - dissemination
Rapid Estimates of US GDP are released 30 days after the end of the
Quarter.
Advanced Calendar of GDP Release.
Policy of dissemination data, methodology and Revision cycles of GDP.
Last month of Quarter is evaluated by some assumptions.
Rapid Quarter GDP calculated through two months of statistical data and
one month of estimates.
First revision of Rapid estimate of Quarterly GDP change sources of
data.
For every Quarter, US have three Releases of GDP.
Policy of regular communication with users and press.
Transparence way of dissemination.
Rapid Estimates of US GDP
Question for David on US Rapid estimates of GDP:
During the last Quarters, the differences between first
and last estimates were well received by users,
press and government?
In some countries it is difficult to deal with frequent
revisions.
Users, press and politics may disagree with different
numbers from the NSO.
Issue: Accuracy, timely and transparence of methods.
Rapid Estimates of Canada GDP - communication
Canada Paper shows recent Canadian experience of assistance policy
makers and business people to understand current financial and
economic crisis.
Remark: Statistics Canada improved quality of Releases on economy
without developing new information sources.
Communication on evolution of financial crisis through Statistics
Canada on Financial Flows Accounts, National Balance Sheet
Accounts, Income and Expenditure Accounts and International
Investment Position.
This communication on Recent Economic Events through the Lens
of the Canadian SNA expanded using of available data without
creating new data.
This successful experience requires continuous training of technical
team to show the important events related to the economic changes,
like the 2008 turning point of cycle.
Rapid Estimates of Canada GDP
During the period of crisis, Releases of Statistics Canada show
evolution of monthly and quarterly indicators.
Releases highlight what is genuinely important for users to understand
better Canadian economy and policy makers take decision.
Paul Cheung question on:
What are the NSO doing to give flash information oh this financial
crisis?
Statistics Canada experience of communication is a very good way to
respond to this question.
However, by the users’ point of view, in times of economic crisis,
those economic indicators could be released earlier.
But, sometimes, release of rapid estimates has a great risk for the NSO
credibility.
Rapid Estimates of Canada GDP
Trade-off between timeliness and revisions.
Each country has different capacity to deal with political consequences of
large revisions.
Issue: Accuracy, timely and transparence of methods.
For StatCan, NSO have to consider how, when and what kind of rapid
estimates they can publish to support decision and policy-makers,
without risks of large revisions later.
This decision is very difficult to be achieved in times of economic crisis.
In each period we could make different choices and the users will not
believe in your transparence and independence.
Rapid Estimates of GDP
Question for Canada on Rapid
estimates:
Question for US on Rapid
estimates:
During the last Quarters, have
you published the same
rapid estimates?
During the last Quarters, the
differences between first and
last estimates were also well
received by users, press and
government?
Had you made any large
revision?
Had you been any problem with
users, press and
government after rapid
estimates revisions?