Transcript The European Neighborhood Policy in Trouble?

The European Neighborhood Policy in
Trouble?
Debora Revoltella
Director Economics Department EIB
Pre-Presidency Conference, Luxembourg, 5 June 2015
2-Apr-16
European Investment Bank
1
Agenda
• Economic context – very different
• The European Investment Bank – a crucial arm of the EU
Neighbouring policy
• Questions on the European Neighbourhood policy
•2-Apr-16
•European Investment Bank
•2
Neighboring Countries – economically
very different
Economic Indicators - South
GDP EUR GDP/capita Current acc. Fiscal bal.
bn
EUR
/GDP %
/GDP %
GDP growth
Algeria
Egypt
Israel
Jordan
Lebanon
Morocco
Syria
Tunisia
West Bank - Gaza
2013
2.8
2.1
3.2
2.9
1.5
4.4
n.a.
2.3
n.a.
2014
3.8
2.2
2.5
3.5
1.8
3.5
n.a.
2.8
n.a.
168.2
210.3
225.2
27.0
35.1
83.1
n.a.
36.3
n.a.
4,346
2,463
27,991
4,031
7,775
2,504
n.a.
3,298
n.a.
-3.0
-0.4
1.9
-10.0
-12.7
-6.8
n.a.
-7.7
n.a.
-4.5
-12.2
-2.9
-10.3
-11.1
-5.0
n.a.
-4.4
n.a.
Ext. Debt
/GDP %
1.3
18.7
n.a.
30.0
176.4
32.9
n.a.
55.8
n.a.
Rating
Rating
outlook
Ba1
B3
A1
Ba3
B2
Baa3
D
Ba3
Caa2
Stable
Stable
Stable
Negative
Negative
Stable
n.a.
Negative
Stable
Rating
Rating
outlook
Ba2
Baa3
B3
Ba3
B2
Baa3
Caa2
Stable
Stable
Stable
Positive
Stable
Negative
Negative
Source: IMF, ECON
Note: economic data are 2013; ratings are Jan 2015
Economic Indicators - East
GDP EUR GDP/capita Current acc. Fiscal bal. Ext. Debt
bn
EUR
/GDP %
/GDP %
/GDP %
GDP growth
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Belarus
Georgia
Moldova
Russia
Ukraine
2013
3.5
5.8
0.9
3.2
8.9
1.3
0.0
2014
3.2
4.5
0.9
5.0
1.8
0.2
-6.5
8.2
57.5
57.0
11.9
5.7
1518.9
99.6
2,490
6,130
6,050
2,663
1,606
10,570
2,199
-7.7
14.6
-8.5
-8.4
-6.2
2.7
-2.5
-1.7
0.3
-3.3
-2.9
-1.7
-0.9
-5.8
78.2
15.9
52.1
64.0
87.2
35.3
102.2
Source: IMF, ECON
Note: economic data are 2013; ratings are Jan 2015
2-Apr-16
European Investment Bank
3
Neighbouring Countries – economic
needs and priorities
South: Euro 200 bn investment per annum in 2014-2018
• Infrastructure: Transport, energy and environmental issues.
Among the least connected in the world and fiscal
constraints particularly in oil importing countries
• Energy efficiency and renewable energy (more opportunities
after changes in energy subsidies), for security and
adaptation
• Access to finance, SMEs and micro-finance
East: EUR 350 bn investment per annum in 2014-2018
• Infrastructure: maintenance and re-focus to adapt to different
needs, including connectivity with Europe
• Energy, climate and adaptation
• Private sector development and SMEs
2-Apr-16
European Investment Bank
4
The EIB and Neighbouring Countries
•2-Apr-16
•European Investment Bank
•5
EIB activities: Neighbouring Countries
Signatures to date
SOUTH: Total signatures 2007
- 2014 (EURm)
EAST: Total signatures 2007 2014 (EURm)
3,000
Russian Federation
2,500
Other Countries
2,000
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,500
1,400
1,200
1,000
1,000
800
600
500
400
200
2007
2-Apr-16
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2007
2008
European Investment Bank
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
6
EIB in neighboring countries - South
Structure of Bank operations to date
2-Apr-16
European Investment Bank
7
EIB in Neighboring Countries - East
Structure of Bank operations to date
2-Apr-16
European Investment Bank
8
Neighbouring Countries
The Mandates (2014 - 2020)
Neighbourhood and Partnership Countries: EUR 14.4bn
broken down into the following indicative sub-ceilings:
(i) Mediterranean countries: EUR 9.6bn
(ii) Eastern Europe, Southern Caucasus and Russia: EUR 4.8bn
The Own Risk Facilities
(i) EUR 3bn Neighbourhood Finance Facility (NFF).
(ii) EUR 1.5bn Climate Action and Environment Facility (CAEF)
(iii) EUR 0.5bn Strategic Projects Facility (SPF)
2-Apr-16
European Investment Bank
9
EIB key strategic orientations - South
Key strategic orientations
• Continue the role of large-scale financier, with 2 main areas of focus:
social and economic infrastructure and private sector development.
• Infrastructure projects will focus on energy, transport, water and
sanitation, urban development and education.
• Strong focus on technical assistance and advisory, to develop a pipeline
of bankable projects.
• Private sector development support will imply direct lending to corporate
or support to financial intermediation, following different approaches.
•2-Apr-16
•European Investment Bank
•10
EIB key strategic orientations - East
Key strategic orientations
• Reflecting the “more for more” principle that underpins the EU strategy in
the EaP, renewed priority will be given to investments in infrastructure and
support for SMEs in the countries that signed an Association Agreement
with the EU.
• A prominent feature of the Bank’s operational plan in the Eastern
Neighbourhood is the Bank’s commitment to lend EUR 3bn to Ukraine
during 2014-2016 in the context of the EU’s initiative to support Ukraine.
•Regarding Russia, in compliance with the Council decisions and
conclusions, the Bank suspended all origination and due diligence activities
on operations in Russia.
• Given the macroeconomic situation of the region, the bulk of Bank
lending is expected to be extended on a sovereign basis.
• The effective implementation of the Bank’s operational plan in the Eastern
Neighbourhood (including the planned increase in Bank lending in Ukraine)
would result in the full use of the resources available for the region under
the 2014-20 ELM by mid-2017 already; this critical issue is to be
addressed in the context of the upcoming Mid-Term Review of the ELM.
2-Apr-16
European Investment Bank
11
Rethinking the European
Neighborhood Policy?
• Goals: Stability, Security and Prosperity
• European catalytic power
•
•
EU challenges
Russia, Turkey and the Middle East
• Economic dimension crucial – common interest
• A single framework for very different regions and countries
•
•
•
Regional dimension (Union for the Med and Eastern Partnership)
Within countries, very different needs
Sectorial dimension
• Need for more Flexibility and Ownership
•2-Apr-16
•European Investment Bank
•12