Transcript Working abroad – the patterns of migration flows and remittances

Working abroad – the patterns of
migration flows and remittances
across countries
Anne Harrison, Tolani Britton and
Annika Swanson
Round Table on Sustainable
Development
• Ministerial level meetings directed to
finding means to implement goals agreed
internationally to further sustainable
development globally
• Focus on the impacts of OECD countries
on countries in the rest of the world
Sustaining whose development?
• Presented to a meeting of the Round
Table in November 2003
• Presented nine data sets
• Five use data concerning international
flows
– Services
– FDI
– Debt
– Remittances
Migrants and remittances
• Part of the social aspect of sustainable
development
• Highly topical, not fully understood, not
always well represented
• Can an examination of the data help
understanding and representation?
• Doha mode 4
Country coverage
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All 30 OECD countries
27 large non-OECD countries
85% of population, 97% of GDP
Plus 17 regional “other” groups covering
the remaining 160-170 countries
Goal
• Take IMF data on remittances and
estimate the match between country of
origin and destination
• Initially work with data for 2000 only
• Preliminary updates to 2003
First task – pattern of migrants
• Have information on number of migrants in
each country, no comprehensive
information on number of nationals abroad
and the countries where are
• Set about building a matrix of stock of
migrants for the world for 2000
Problems
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Nationality, citizenship, place of birth
Refugees
Length of stay
Worker or family member
Links to home country
Skill level
Year data available
Results
Millions
%
From
OECD
ROW
Total
To OECD
22.2
16.2
34.1
24.9
56.3
41.1
ROW
2.5
1.8
77.9
57.0
80.4
58.8
Total
24.7
18.0
112.0
81.9
136.7
100.0
Nationals abroad (mn)
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•
Russia 10.2
Mexico 7.9
India 7.2
Ukraine 4.7
Philippines 4.1
UK 3.4
Bangladesh 3.3
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•
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Italy 3.0
Turkey 2.8
Indonesia 2.4
Nigeria 2.1
Portugal 1.7
Thailand 1.6
Germany 1.5
Remittances
• Add workers’ remittances and
compensation of employees
• Credits 41.8 + 60.7 = 102.5
• Debits 45.2 + 54.9 = 100.1
• Philippines
• Ignore migrants transfers
Conceptual problems
• Not all migrants send transfers
• Not all remittances come from migrants
– Some may be “ex-migrants”
– Some may be new relatives eg marriage
– Some may be non-relatives eg adopt a child
• Special problem of border workers
Data probelms
• Even OECD countries have poor data
• Often have only compensation of
employees or workers’ remittances but not
both - are they merged or is one missing
• Ambiguity about coverage of flows through
informal channels
Remittances per migrant
• Estimate missing countries – Nigeria,
Qatar, UAE, Malaysia, Singapore, Canada
• Made estimtes for missing data - not for
underrecording
• Annex table 6
• Outflow per migrant (col 4)broadly
consistent across countries
Border workers
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•
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•
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Credits
France 7.9
Belgium/Lux 3.7
Germany 3.4
Italy 1.5
• Total 19.4
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Debits
International orgs 6.5
Switzerland 5.6
Germany 4.2
Belgium/Lux 2.9
Italy 2.0
• Total 24.1
Simple minded model
• Assume average remittance sent by all
migrants (only) in a given country
• No allowance for nationality, skill, family
circumstance, length of time away
• Indian waiter in UK sends as much as
Portuguese waiter
• Indian waiter in UK sends more than
Indian waiter in Africa
Receipts per national abroad
• Annex table 6 col 6, col 9
• Again reasonably consistent across
countries at similar levels of development
and with IMF data
Geographical groupings
Africa
Asia
Europe
Latin America and Caribbean
North America
Oceania
Total
Border workers in Europe
Total
11.7
37.6
18.9
19.3
2.4
0.8
90.7
19.4
110.1
10.4
43.4
19.6
16.2
1.6
0.3
91.5
21.4
115.7
Impact on GDP
• Annex table 6 cols 7 and 10
• Largest impact
– Philippines 105.9
– Bangladesh 104.0
• For most countries, impact one or two
percent
• Only very small countries have very high
impacts
Perception
• Remittances come from OECD countries
Data -$bn 2000
Int orgs
6.5
France
3.8
USA
26.8
Malaysia
3.8
Saudi Arabia
15.4
Belgium/Lux
3.3
Other western
Asia
Germany
14.1
Japan
2.5
7.4
Italy
2.0
Switzerland
7.3
Spain
1.7
Perception
• Most remittances go to the third world
Data - $bn 2000
India
9.2
Germany
3.4
France
7.9
Portugal
3.4
Mexico
7.6
Egypt
2.9
Philippines
6.2
USA
2.4
Turkey
4.6
Morocco
2.2
Spain
3.8
Bangladesh
2.0
Belgium/Lux
3.7
Results
$Billions
%
To OECD
ROW
Total
From
OECD
38.9
35.1
29.3
26.4
68.2
61.4
ROW
0.7
0.6
42.0
37.9
42.7
38.5
Total
39.6
35.7
71.3
64.2
110.9
100.0
Update
• Flows to 2003
• Review migration matrix
• Main improvements to come from better
data
Data needs
• Compensation employees and workers’
remittances problematic
– Regular commuters (border workers)
– Irregular working visitors (seasonal and
casual workers from abroad)
– Long -term migrant workers
Data needs (cont)
• Seek bilateral data from key providers and
recipients of flows
• Add estimates of informal flows
• Match inflows and outflows