Transcript enough energy! - Amazon Web Services

THE ANNUAL REPORT
Department of Energy
Profs Lloyd & Uken
Energy Institute
Cape Peninsula University of
Technology
PPC Energy October 2012
How did the Department do?
• It passed!
• It scored 31%
– That means it got more than twice as much
wrong as it got right!
– As the Headmaster would say “Could do
better – much better!”
• Let’s look at some examples
PPC Energy October 2012
Our vision
• A transformed and sustainable energy
sector with universal access to modern
energy carriers for all by 2014.
• Improving our energy mix by having 30%
clean energy by 2025.
• Good! But the first is not achievable, AND
• Something is missing from both
• ENOUGH ENERGY!
PPC Energy October 2012
Enough energy?
• IRP2010 was approved by Cabinet in
March 2011
• The Department has a clear remit
• It was presented with a roadmap for
meeting the demand forecast
PPC Energy October 2012
Enough energy?
?
PPC Energy October 2012
Enough energy?
• Rounds 1 & 2 of REIPP have set in motion
the 2100MW of installed renewable energy
• Good - - BUT
• It will only yield on average about 500MW
• Our demand goes up by 800MW annually
• There is progress on 3200MW nuclear
• OK - - but slow!
PPC Energy October 2012
Enough energy?
• No progress on 4320MW of conventional
energy
• Which would yield 3600MW on average
• Enough for over 4 years growth
• Give the Department 500MW renewable,
1100MW nuclear, 1600MW total
• Score 1600/ (1600 + 3600) = 31%
PPC Energy October 2012
But why worry?
• Can’t we get by with saving electricity?
• And can’t we improve the efficiency of
use?
• Yes - - we can, BUT
• We need to grow the economy
• And that means more energy
PPC Energy October 2012
That means more energy
• There is a DIRECT relation between the
wealth of a nation and the amount of
energy it uses
• It is one of the strongest economic
relationships known
• The International Energy Agency uses it to
make forecasts
• Their predictions of 25 years ago are
within 10%
PPC Energy October 2012
That means more energy
PPP GDP, 2007$/capita
100,000
10,000
R² = 0.8057
1,000
100
100
Source: World Bank
1000
10000
kg oil equivalent per capita
PPC Energy October 2012
100000
That’s why we worry
• Being short of energy means
– Being short of growth
– Being short of jobs
– Being poor
– Being ill-fed
– Having a short life
• That’s why we worry about a Department
that only just passes
PPC Energy October 2012
And the long-term vision?
• Improving our energy mix by having 30%
clean energy by 2025.
• Good - - but
• All the Department’s effort goes into
producing clean energy
• We need to worry about HAVING clean
energy
PPC Energy October 2012
Having clean energy
• Means having clear air over the Highveld
in winter
– Which means addressing the domestic use of
coal
– Which means having far fewer dying of CO
poisoning
– And the Department is making no progress on
this
PPC Energy October 2012
Having clean energy
• Means being able to cook and heat the
home without indoor air pollution
– Which means affordable sources of clean
energy
– And cheap electricity isn’t the answer
– LP gas might be
– And the Department is making minimal
progress on this
PPC Energy October 2012
Having clean energy
• Means having less shack fires
– Which destroy about 50 000 homes annually
• Means burning less children
– Spend a morning at the Red Cross hospital
and you will see the problem
• And the Department is making no effort in
this direction
PPC Energy October 2012
Having clean energy
• Means having clean fuels for our cars
– And the Department is making slow progress
on this ?
• Score 1.5 out of 5 – 30%
PPC Energy October 2012
Is a pass good enough?
•
•
•
•
There is some basis for our marking
Could the Department do better?
Should it do better?
Does it really recognize how important
energy is to our development?
• Does it really understand how important
energy is to our people’s wellbeing?
• You be the judge!
PPC Energy October 2012
Thank you for your kind
attention!
[email protected]
[email protected]
PPC Energy October 2012