Transcript China - The Millennium Project

Millennium Project Annual Planning Committee Meeting July 7-8, 2011
World Future Society Conference, July 8-10, 2011
Sheraton Wall Centre Hotel, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
A. National SOFI and Long-term Strategic Management
System
B. Beyond GDP, Establishing China Genuine Progress
Indicator (GPI) system
C. Ecological rebuild and development for 60,000
hektares wasteland in “Lu Liang Mountainous Area”
D. Good news from China: Tech-BIA, one of the Life
soft-tech bringing agricultural revolution
China Node Zhouying JIN
Center for Technology Innovation & Strategy Studies,
Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
July 7-8, 2011
A. China SOFI and Long-term Strategic
Management System
 Nation level’s SOFI is A tool for evaluating Social, Economic and
Environmental Sustainability.
Therefore, SOFI should be embodied in Long-term Strategic
Management System
Four quadrants design
China SOFI (started from 2001)divided fore parts
in order to build a quadruple bottom line strategy sistem
The integration of a
quadruple bottom line
strategy and an early
warning systems
 Development postures and
the structure of radar charts
The first quadrant representing natural resources ; The second quadrant is environmental and
ecological fields; The third quadrant representing the economic field ； the fourth quadrant
representing the social area
 Three rings of the radar chart: the inner ring represents the warning line; The outer ring
represents the target line; the middle ring is a comparative line; the dotted lines represent the
behaviors of the object of analysis
The characteristics are: (1) through setting warning signals, benchmarking and objective
indicators as the background of radar signals, the regional development perspective and decision
support can be visualized; (2) through system integration of key strategic indicators, we can
visualize, track and achieve the quadruple bottom line management objectives; (3) through
calculation and adjustments of these four areas, the degree of harmonization can be coordinated; (4)
through scenario analysis, the forward-looking development perspective can be seen, so that early
warning signals can be detected, and hence strategic deployment as well as the overall strategy can
be adjusted.
LSSIM (Long-term Strategic System Integration
Model) –For China 2050 study
2015 postures of case city
SOFI and foresight
The development postures for the future 40 years
+scenario study
The harmonious degree
In order to increase the quantitative basis of long-term strategic management, we
defined the harmonious degree, which manifests the coordinated development situation
among the areas or elements required to be integrated under the principle of sustainable
development.
 The total harmonious degree refers to the coordinated degree among the fields of
economy, society, environment and resources
 the harmonious degree of the field refers to the coordinated degree among the
important elements within each strategic areas.
 100% represents the optimum
Harmonious Degree (%)
Economy
Eco-environment
Total harmonious degree
Society
Strategic resources
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
2009
2015
2020
2030
2040
2050
2050Optimum
B. Beyond GDP, Establishing Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI)
improving performance measures of political achievements
GPI composed of social, economic and environmental accounts
Economic factors of GPI
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GDP is the key indicator to measure the
economic growth at the present
moment. However, it neither reflects the
quality of economic growth, nor the
total progress of society; nor is it the
national happiness index.
Factors of environmental costs of GPI
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Cost of long-term environmental damage
Loss of Wetlands
Cost of Water Pollution
Cost of Air Pollution
Cost of Ozone Depletion.
Cost of household pollution abatement
Cost of noise pollution
Loss of farmland
Cost of depletion of non-renewable resources
Loss of old-growth forests
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Weighted Personal Consumption
Net Capital Investment
Value of Household Work and Parenting
Services of Household Consumer
Durables
Net foreign lending
Volunteer work
Service of public capital
Factors of social costs of GPI
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Cost of Overwork
Cost of Commuting
Cost of unemployment
Cost of Underemployment
Cost of Crime
Cost of Family Breakdown
Cost of Automobile Accidents and
other urbanization costs
The trend of GDP and GPI
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During 20 years from 1988 to 2007, Either China or the case city has been brought
“genuine” progress with China’s economic miracle. During this period:
China’s GDP and GDP per capita increased by 5.33 times and 4.3 times
respectively; GPI and GPI per capita increased by 3.9 times and 3.1 times
For the case city, GDP and GDP per capita increased by 8.56 times and 5.54 times
respectively；GPI and GPI per capita increased by 7.69 times and 4.95 times
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Comparison of China's GDP and GPI trend
The trend of GDP and GPI in the case city
GDP & GPI of China (1978-2007)
The trend of GDP & GPI (1988-2009)
110000
45
GDP
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
40
GPI
35
GDP
30
25
20
15
10
5
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
0
0
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
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1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
100 Million (1990=1.0）
90000
GPI
100 Million (1990=1.0)
100000
The gap between GDP and GPI caused by
social cost and environmental cost
The negative share of
environmental cost and social costs in GPI
For China
For the case city
The influence of social & environmental costs
on the negative factors (%)
The influence of social & environmental costs
on the negative factors (%)
80
Social costs
70
100
90
60
50
Environmental costs
Social costs
80
Environmental costs
70
60
40
50
30
40
30
20
20
10
2007
2008
2009
2004
2005
2006
2001
2002
2003
1997
1998
1999
2000
1994
1995
1996
1991
1992
1993
0
1988
1989
1990
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
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1987
1988
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1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
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2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
0
10
High cost for the high GDP growth rate
Comparison of the ratio between GPI & GDP
of case city & that of China (%)
Case city
China
100
90
80
70
60
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
50
40
30
20
10
0
1989
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The ratio between GPI and GDP reflects the proportion of real progress.
For whole China, this ratio declined from 59% in 1980 to 10% by 2000,
and rose to 38% until 2007. This rise is mainly because the net capital
investment surged since 2003 and China’s foreign debt turned into an
increase in external assets since 2002.
For the case city, the ratio of GPI to GDP declined from 28.85% in 1988
to 18.84% in 2000, and then rebounded rapidly, rising to 37.8% by 2007.
This is mainly because the net capital investment surged since 2001
1988
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C. China launch 10 national experimental zone for
second step of development
-Different type of Reform model
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Shanghai 浦东新区－综合配套改革，2005.6
Tianjin 海新区－综合配套改革 ,2006,5
Chongqing city－统筹城乡综合配套改革,2007,6
Chengdu city－统筹城乡综合配套改革,2007,6
Wuhan 城市圈－资源节约型和环境友好型社会,2007,9
Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan 城市群－资源节约型和环境
友好型社会,2007,12
Shenzhen city－综合配套改革,2009,5
Shenyang 经济区－国家新型工业化,2010,4
Shan’xi Province－资源型经济转型 ,20010,12
Yiwu city－国际贸易综合改革,2011,3
Shan’xi Province－ Experimental Zone for
Transformation of Resources base economy
（2010.12）
 First Experimental Zone in province level, for systematic
reform model
 Important base of China’s energy and raw material
supply
 Eco-environment is has been destroyed, Natural
resources going to dry up, restrict sustainable
development
 I will in charge of the strategy and design a model of
comprehensive ecological rebuild and development for
60,000 hektare wasteland in “Lu Liang mountainous area”
D. A technology revolution in China
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It will make us completely take leave of the chemical
agriculture
 It provides direction for resolving the food safety radically
 It will dissolve some crisis of human existence
It is Tech-BIA
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Open up the approach to the agriculture with zero
agricultural chemical residues
Another method for treating incurable disease
Another kind of approach for pollution control
1. Tech-BIA: Bio-information Adjustment Technology
One of the life soft-tech
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Tech-BIA established new research method for life science by using
their expression characteristics of the specific information spectrum of
life matter.
As a living body, human is composed of physical matter (tangible
entity substance) and life information (intangible spectrum of specific
information).
Tech-BIA activates the visible part of the life (physical) by utilizing
another long-neglected part of the life (intangible information) part,
which to adjust the life information and field strength (energy) to
create various solutions to solve the problems.
From the perspective of biochemistry, there is a commonness for living
entities including animals, plants and micro-organisms,- is composed
of the same four nucleotides in the gene level.
Thus, Tech-BIA’s application can reach as far as the treatment of
human diseases, agriculture, animal husbandry, aquaculture, fisheries,
pollution control and other aspects.
2. Agricultural applications of Tech-BIA
 Chemical fertilizers are completely replaced by biological
fertilizers, realizing safe food production with zero
agricultural chemical residues
 Instead of pesticides, plant protection agents are adopted
－Applied in the 21 provinces and cities, as well as 70
counties in China.
－Their biological fertilizers have been exported to 16
countries (Australia, Malaysia, Canada, Vietnam, Korea,
Indonesia and Japan); two German companies have been
carrying out follow-up study and cooperation for 3 years
3. San’an Food
 San’an food, is world one-up food without chemical residue, no
pesticide residue and no drug residue, and accords with
San’an Food Quality Standard.
 San’an Standards：204 Quality and Safety Standards of San’an
Food ; 136 Operational Procedures ; 188 Quality Safety
Inspection Methods of San’an Food.
 Their quality and safety have exceeded the standards of
Positive List System for Agricultural Chemical Residues in
Foods of Japan, Pesticide and Veterinary Drug Residues in
Foods of EU and the standard for organic food of China
(GB/Tl9630.l-GB/Tl9630.4).
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28 sample preparation
4. Treating diseases of immune injury
 Considerable success has been achieved in follows
－ There are 62 kinds of biological drugs, including anti-AIDS
drug "Picika" biological agents (it has met with approval
by the State Food and Drug Administration on February 8,
2007, and carries out clinical applications in the 302
Hospital of PLA)
－ More than 600 success stories on the treatment of Cancer,
AIDS, leukemia, diabetes and other incurable diseases.
5. A great inventor
Professor Larry Cheung
Chief scientist of CK Biotech Laboratory Ltd
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The initial idea were established in 1974
He has experienced great difficulties during 32 years,
even be framed as metaphysics and put in prison,
and passed from China to US, HK and come back to
China.
Bold to challenge the traditional science
He has successfully innovated and integrated 108 outcomes, which
can be used in the fields of bio-pharmacy, bio-agriculture and ecoenvironment.
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Biggest regret: though there are a large number of successful
practices, it has not been recognized by traditional academia:
We need broad international support, especially the support
from the academia of future study.
Progress in study on Soft Technology
2011.1
2005.1
Preface for the Second English Edition by Theodore Jay Gordon
Published by Intellect Bristol, UK /Chicago, USA