Transcript Impact of changes in Blue Book and Pink Books 2013` presented by

Impact of changes in Blue Book and Pink
Books 2013
Andrew Walton, Phillip Davies, Marilyn
Thomas
27 June 2013
Summary
• Introduction
• Main changes to methods
• Impact on GDP
• Expenditure components
• Sector and Financial Accounts
• Balance of Payments
Introduction
• Published today
• QNA
• UKEA
• Quarterly BoP
• Slimline Business Investment
• Several supporting articles
• Tomorrow
• Index of Services
• Productivity
Introduction
• 31 July
• Blue Book
• Pink Book
• Supply and Use Tables
• Full Business Investment
• BoP geography
Changes in Blue Book 2013
• Reference year 2010
• Quality improvements to Supply and Use
Tables
• Private Non-Financial Corporation’s
(PNFC’s) profits
• Rental estimates, and
• Imputed rental
• Gross Operating Surplus (GoS) for own
account software
• Investment in artistic originals
Changes in Blue Book 2013
• Alignment of the National Accounts with
Public Sector Finances
• Measurement of bonds liabilities, and
• Measurement of UK Private Non-Financial
Corporations’ (PNFCs) overseas deposits
and loans
• Gross Fixed Capital Formation, and
• Changes in inventories systems
• Improved estimation of some industries
• Seasonal adjustment of construction
output
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
Impact on GDP - nominal
%
8
6
4
2
0
BB13
-2
Previously published
-4
Impact on GDP - nominal
• Levels raised by a little over 1%
on average by methods changes
• This amounts to £20.8 billion in 2012
• Switch between 2008 and 2009 –
new quarterly profits
• 2008 growth revised up 0.4 pp
• 2009 growth revised down 0.4 pp
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
-4
2000
1999
1998
Impact on GDP – real
%
6
4
2
0
-2
BB13
Previously published
-6
Impact on GDP – real
• Average growth since 1997 revised
down by 0.1% a year
• Bigger changes in individual years
• 2001 and 2009 down
• 2004 and 2005 up
• GFCF is biggest impact
• But profile of HMRC profits also
important in 2008 and 2009
Impact on real GDP – downturn
• Peak to trough is now 7.2%
• Previously published as 6.4%, 7.1% and
6.3%
• Duration of downturn is now 5-6
quarters
• Initially 6 quarters, revised to 5 quarters
in BB2011
• Q2 and Q3 2009 flat (actually down £16
mn)
Impact on real GDP – downturn
102
QNA 2011 Q1M3
BB11
100
BB12
98
BB13
96
94
92
Q1
Q2
Q3
2008
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
2009
Q4
Impact on real GDP – recovery
• 46% of loss in output during
recession has been recovered
• Previously estimated as 59%
• Revision largely due to increased ‘peak to
trough’
• But slight downward revision to path of
recovery (3.5% above trough revised from
3.9%)
• No longer two consecutives quarters of
negative growth in 2011/12 (to 1 dp)
• Q1 2012 revised from -0.1% to zero (a fall of
£250mn to a fall of £26mn)
Q1 2013
Q4 2012
Q3 2012
Q2 2012
98.0
Q1 2012
100.0
Q4 2011
Q3 2011
Q2 2011
Q1 2011
Q4 2010
Q3 2010
Q2 2010
Q1 2010
Q4 2009
Q3 2009
Q2 2009
Q1 2009
Q4 2008
Q3 2008
Q2 2008
Q1 2008
Impact on real GDP – recovery
110.0
108.0
106.0
104.0
102.0
Q1 2013 2nd est
BB13
96.0
Household expenditure
• Separate article published today
• Number of improved methods and data
sources
•
•
•
•
•
•
Imputed rental (+£30 bn in 2011)
Repairs and maintenance (-£13bn)
Supply and use balancing (+£3bn)
Financial services (-£3bn)
Internet subscriptions (-£1bn)
Smuggling (+ less than half a billion)
• Total revision in 2011 is +£17bn
Gross Fixed Capital Formation
• Key improvements to deflation and
seasonal adjustment
• improved construction of the asset, sector and
industry series:
• asset, industry and sector series constructed directly
• improved deflation and chain linking methodology:
• at more detailed asset, sector and industry level
• full set of Producer Price Indices (PPI) deflators used
• Business Spending on Capital Items Survey is now used,
for weights
• improved seasonal adjustment:
• seasonal adjustment on acquisitions and disposals
separately
Gross Fixed Capital Formation
• Artistic originals (+£2bn in 2012)
• Own account software mark-up
(+£2bn)
• Overall impact
• Growth revised from +1.5% to +0.5% in
2012
• Not a consistent pattern but reduces
growth on average
Change in Inventories
• More detailed chain linking and
seasonal adjustment
• Acquisitions and disposals
• Lower level industry and asset
• New deflators still being quality
assured
Sector and Financial Accounts
• Financial Account impacted by methods
improvements
• Alignment with Public Sector Finances
• Bonds
• PNFCs overseas loans and deposits
• Further details in articles
• Saving Ratio
• 4.2% in latest quarter, lowest quarterly saving ratio since
2009q1 (3.4%)
• 6.7% in 2012 and 2011
• Real household disposable income (RHDI)
• Fall of 1.7% in latest quarter, largest fall since 1990 q2 (1.7%)
• Rise of 1.4% in 2012 (Fell 1.2% in 2011)
Any Questions?
Sector & Financial Accounts
2013 Q1
Phillip Davies
Summary
• Financial Account methods changes
• Sector Financial Accounts Key Indicators
• Links to Methods Papers & Publications (to
follow!)
Financial Account
• Methodological Changes
o Bonds
o Overseas deposits and loans
o Public Sector Finance alignment
Bonds
ONS undertook a review of the Bonds liability methodology which recommended:
• Converting bond liabilities estimates from nominal to market values,
using a weighted index of bond prices, so that they move into line with
international (SNA2003/ESA 95) requirements
• Using aggregate data from the Bank of England Balance Sheet Survey
of Banks and Building Societies to measure MFIs bond liabilities
• Improving the processing and sectorising of data on quoted UK bonds
collected from the London Stock Exchange
• Using data from the London Stock Exchange as a source for
measuring the bond liabilities of insurance companies and pension
funds
• Treating the Rest of the World bond assets as the residual difference
between total bond liabilities and assets, due to a lack of data
coverage for the sector
In addition to these actions, the bond review recommended a change in the way
bond estimates are presented in the financial account
• Now presented in a combined F.3325-6
Bonds continued
• 2003 onwards but presentation back to 1997
• Financial account (flows) and balance sheet
(levels)
• Impacted PNFCs bond liabilities
Old
New
PNFCs Bonds Liabilities Flows F.3325-6
50000
40000
30000
PNFC Pre
20000
PNFC Post
10000
0
1997
-10000
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
PNFCs Bonds Liabilities Levels F.3325-6
500000
450000
400000
PNFCs Pre
350000
PNFCs
Post
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
MFIs Bonds Liabilities Flows F.3325-6
200000
150000
MFIs Pre
MFI Post
100000
50000
0
1997
-50000
-100000
-150000
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
MFIs Bonds Liabilities Levels F.3325-6
900000
800000
MFI Pre
MFI Post
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
OFIs Bonds Liabilities Flows F.3325-6
250000
200000
OFIs Pre
150000
100000
50000
0
1997
-50000
-100000
-150000
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
OFIs Bonds Liabilities Levels F.3325-6
1000000
900000
OFIs Pre
800000
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Overseas deposits and loans
• Changes to estimates of UK deposits with and
loans from overseas banks
• Previously overstating overseas deposits for
PNFCs and understating for OFIs
• Split moved from 80% PNFCs & 10% OFI to
growth in line with the sectors UK bank deposits
and loans
• Affects F.229 & F.419 across all sectors
• 2003 onwards
• Impacts mainly to liabilities of PNFCs & OFIs
• Financial account and balance sheet
PNFCs OSD Asset Flows F.229
100000
80000
PNFCs Pre
60000
40000
20000
0
1997
-20000
-40000
-60000
-80000
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
PNFCs OSD Assets Levels F.229
450000
400000
PNFCs Pre
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
OFIs OSD Flows Assets F.229
300000
200000
OFIs Pre
100000
0
1997
-100000
-200000
-300000
-400000
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
OFIs OSD Assets Levels F.229
900000
800000
OFIs Pre
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
SFA Key Indicators
• Saving Ratio
4.2% in latest quarter
Lowest quarterly saving ratio since 2009q1 (3.4%)
6.7% in 2012 and 2011
• Real household disposable income (RHDI)
Fall of 1.7% in latest quarter
Largest fall since 1990 q2 (1.7%)
Rise of 1.4% in 2012 (Fell 1.2% in 2011)
2012 Net Lending-Borrowing non-financial
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
Central Gov
-20000
-40000
-60000
-80000
-100000
-120000
Local Gov
Public Corps
Financial Corps
PNFCs
Households &
NPISH
ROW
2012
2013 Q1 Net Lending-Borrowing non-financial
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
Central Gov
-5000
-10000
-15000
-20000
-25000
Local Gov
Public Corps
Financial Corps
PNFCs
Households &
NPISH
ROW
2013 Q1
Publications & Articles
• Bonds
• Overseas deposits and loans
• PSH
Further details?
• Bonds & Overseas deposits:
Harry Duff [email protected]
• Public Sector
David Mathewson
[email protected]
• UKEA
Phillip Davies or Michael Rizzo
[email protected]
[email protected]
Balance of Payments
• Also impacted by changes to
Financial Account
• Improvements to debt securities
(bonds) liabilities
• Improvements to PNFCs overseas
loans and deposits (and OFIs
overseas loans and deposits)
• Further details in articles
Questions?