Transcript here - EaP CSF

Where do we
stand today?
Joanna Miksa - DG
Trade – European
Commission
EU-Georgia
EU-Moldova
EU-Ukraine
DCFTAs
Legal framework
• GE and MD DCFTAs implemented since 1
September 2014
• UA DCFTA scheduled to start on 1 January 2016
• Autonomous Trade Preference for Ukraine since
April 2014
Transition arrangements in place:
• GSP+ for Georgia until end 2016
• Autonomous Trade Preference for Moldova until
end 2015
Implications of DCFTA
• For products – lower or 0% import duties  cheaper
exports
• For services – ability to export services and expand
business contacts in services
• For investment – equal treatment of companies setting up
subsidiaries or offices, in (almost) any sector
• For the country – reforms reforms reforms
• For the citizens and civil society – empowerment, impact
on government policies
Do we trade more? -- Ukraine
• overall fall in exports (-13,5%) in 2014, but EU share
increases (+4%, to 31%) against Russia's share (-6%, to
18%).
• Imports from UA stable 2013-2014 against a number of
external factors.
• EU export to UA has fallen by 28% in 2014.
• Factors: war in Donbas, Russia's trade bans,
macroeconomic stability, currency depreciation
Do we trade more? -- Moldova
• overall exports stable (-3%) but EU share increases (+7%,
to 53%) against CIS (-7%, to 31%) in 2014.
• EU imports from MD: +20% in 2014, but under DCFTA: 0%
growth. But EU share in total trade upward in 2015
• EU exports to MD: +3% in 2014, but -3% under DCFTA
• Factors: macroeconomic stability, currency depreciation,
Russia's trade bans
Do we trade more? -- Georgia
• overall exports stable (-1%) but EU share increases (+1%,
to 21%) against CIS (-4%, to 51%) in 2014.
• EU imports from GE: (-1.5%) growth in 2014, but under
DCFTA: +23%. EU share in total trade upward in 2015
• EU exports to GE: -6% in 2014, and -4% under DCFTA
• Factors: automotive sector (re-exports to AZ), currency
depreciation, regional stability
Reform agenda: the ship has left the
harbour…
• Moldova: ambitious timeframes and scope of reform (475
EU acts over 10 years); frontloaded; XX acts to be adopted
in 2015
• Georgia: more cautious approach, narrower scope (107
acts – SPS excl.); legislative reforms to start in year 2
• Ground-work for reforms ongoing (e.g. food safety,
technical assistance), also in Ukraine
• First meetings – Trade Committee, sub-committees, civil
society
…but is not yet at cruising speed
• Ca. 1 year before first assessment of trade flows (cf.
unexpected events)
• Ca. 5 years before first assessment of the results of reform
• Expected long-term impact:
• Boost of Georgia's GDP by +4.3%, +12% exports, +7.5%
imports
• Boost of Moldova GDP by +5.4%, +16% exports, +8%
imports
Civil society –role in DCFTA
implementation
• Reforms to boost competitiveness, create jobs, lower
consumer prices, increase quality of living and governance
standards
• Civil society as an observer AND contributor to the reform
process: Domestic Advisory Group
• Trade and Sustainable Development Sub-Committee
• Contribute to and push for inclusive policy-making
THANK YOU
Joanna Miksa
Bilateral Trade Coordinator - Moldova
DG Trade – European Commission
[email protected]
Tel. +32 2 295 64 71