Transcript Sustainability of economic growth and inequality in incomes

Sustainability of economic growth and
inequality in incomes distribution
Assistant, PhD, BURZ Răzvan-Dorin
West University of Timisoara, Romania
Lecturer, PhD, BOLDEA Bogdan Ion
West University of Timisoara, Romania
This work was cofinanced from the European Social Fund through Sectoral Operational Programme
Human Resources Development 2007-2013, project number POSDRU/89/1.5/S/59184 „Performance
and Excellence in Postdoctoral Research in Romanian Economics Science Domain”.
Research hypothesis
There is a positive relationship
between uncertainty about
economic environment and the
inequality in income distribution.
Inequality – approach
Inequality – researches
Inequality – researches
Inequality – researches
Inequality – researches
Inequality – researches
Motivation
As background research we did not
find any studies which are investigating
the possible relation between
inequality of incomes distribution and
the uncertainty which affects the
economic processes and the quality of
economic subjects’ decisions.
The relationship between sustainability of economic growth
and inequality in incomes distribution – data
Output volatility
Variation in GDP
(World Bank – “World Development Indicators”)
Sample
27 developing countries
Observation time
Inequality
Gini coefficient
(United Nations – “World Income Inequality Database”)
1995 – 2006
The relationship between sustainability of economic growth
and inequality in incomes distribution – methodology
A formal description of our research hypothesis can be synthesized as:
GINIi,t  0  i X i,t  t  i  i,t
Where:
— the dependent Gini Index variable is linked to a set X of the considered
explanatory variables;
— ηi is the unobserved time-invariant specific effects;
— δt captures a common deterministic trend;
— εit is a random disturbance assumed to be normal, and identical
distributed (IID) with E (εit)=0; Var (εit) =σ2 >0 .
The relationship between sustainability of economic growth
and inequality in incomes distribution – methodology
Steps in testing our research hypothesis:
• First we are involving a static panel data model with pooled ordinary
least squares (OLS), fixed effects (FE) and random effects (RE)
estimators. The F statistics tests the null hypothesis of same specific
effects for all countries. If we accept the null hypothesis, we could use
the OLS estimator. The Hausman test can decide which model is
better: random effects (RE) versus fixed effects (FE). The FE model
was selected because it avoids the inconsistency due to correlation
between the explanatory variables and the country-specific effects.
• For a robustness assessment, we also apply the so-called GMMSystem estimation (Arellano and Bover, 1995; Blundell and Bond,
1998, 2000; and Windmeijer, 2005). The GMM-System tries to
simultaneous estimate the previous Equation together with a respecification designed to eliminate the country-specific effects by using
first differences of the involved variables as:
GINIi,t  i X i,t  t  i  Zi,t  i,t
Where Z is a set of instruments for the dependent and explanatory variables.
The relationship between sustainability of economic growth
and inequality in incomes distribution – empirical results
Inequality in incomes distribution and economic output volatility: a static panel data model
The relationship between sustainability of economic growth
and inequality in incomes distribution – empirical results
Output volatility and incomes inequality: a GMM-System and dynamic GMM estimation
Conclusion
•
•
Acording to our results, social output volatility has a positive impact
on inequality of incomes’ distribution. The results clearly indicate that
an increase in the volatility of the social output (a decrease in the
sustainability of the growth processes) leads to a greater inequality in
incomes’ distribution.
The most important result is that the output volatility variable remains
positive and statistically significant, displaying some robustness to
the changes in methodology. However, the estimation of relative
importance of output volatility to be sensitive to such changes and the
statistical significance decline in the GMM-System framework.
Amplitude
of relation
Stability of
relation
(statistically
significant)
Static
Dynamic
GMM-system
0.26
0.18
0.21
5%
1%
10%
Conclusion
•
For a developing country to have a sustainable development it must
make efforts not only to increase its GDP but also to maintain a
continuous trend of its increase. It matters not only the level achieved
but also how it is achieved. Although in a given period of time the
economy shows permanent positive results in GDP terms, if it has
variations, although it remains positive, the country development is
not a sustainable one from the point of view of inequality evolution.
Thank you!