Transcript Draft_05_11_08

INDIA NATIONAL REPORT ON DISASTER
RISK, POVERTY AND HUMAN
DEVELOPMENT RELATIONSHIP
Disaster Risk Reduction and Poverty : Case study of Orissa and Tamil Nadu
Final Review Meeting: Asia – Bangkok
November 5, 2008
India Report
Introduction
2
Chapter 1 – Overall hazard vulnerability & poverty in
India, Framework, Methodology
Chapter 2 – Mapping socio-economic vulnerabilities
Chapter 3 – Mapping of Hazard Risk
Chapter 4 – Mapping of disaster impacts
Chapter 5 – Vulnerabilities and Disaster Linkages
Chapter 6 – Way forward
NSDP and Per Capita NSDP GR (1993-94 to 2004-05)
3
India Per Capita GDP ($PPP) (2006) = US$ 3,452
India GDP at Current Prices, 2005-06 = Rs. 25,716
Tamil Nadu Per Capita Net State Domestic Product (NSDP)
(2005-06, at current prices) = Rs. 29,958 (1.16 times of India)
Orissa Per Capita Net State Domestic Product (NSDP) (2005-06,
at current prices) = Rs. 17,299(0.67 times of India)
NSDP
Per Capita NSDP
Orissa
5.15
3.74
Tamil Nadu
5.52
4.22
India
7.07
5.58
GDP Composition
4
Composition of NSDP - Tamil Nadu
Composition of NSDP - Orissa
35.83
44.59
19.58
Prim ary
Secondary
13.96
In India, just 22%
GDP from primary
sector & 25% from
secondary sector
56.04
30.00
Tertiary
Prim ary
In Orissa 36%
GDP from
primary sector
& just 20%
from secondary
sector
Composition of GDP - India
22.81
52.41
Secondary
Tertiary
In Tamil Nadu,
30% GDP from
secondary & just
14% GDP from
primary
24.78
Prim ary
Secondary
Tertiary
Jobless growth in India primarily because of relatively small secondary sector
Employment & Urbanization
5
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Just 27.5% population in India living in urban areas
Orissa, just 15% living in urban areas
Tamil Nadu 44% living in urban areas
59% of working population in India employed in primary
sector when its GDP share is only 22%
64% or working population in Orissa employed in primary
sector, when its GDP share is 36%
Inspite of high urbanization level, 46% of workers in Tamil
Nadu engaged in primary sector with income share of 14%
 India in general and both states in particular have stress in rural
economy
Comparing Indian and international
poverty lines
6
Poverty Lines At Current Prices (in Per Capita Per Month)
1800
1600
1400
1000
800
600
400
200
India - Rural
Orissa - Urban
Global
Year
2004-05
0
1993-94
Rs.
1200
India - Urban
Tam il Nadu - Rural
Orissa - Rural
Tam il Nadu - Urban
Poverty Profile - India
7
 Incidence of poverty in India, the Head Count Ratio is 28.7% for rural and
25.7% for urban in 2004-05
220.9 millions in rural and 80.80 millions in urban areas live below the
officially defined poverty line in 2004-05
Total 301.72 million population living below poverty line in 2004-05
 Just 18.65 million population have come out of poverty from 1993-94 to
2004-05 (in last 10 years)
 Slowing down of poverty decline is inspite of high economic growth rate in
this period.
Growth is accompanied by increasing inequalities
Rural Poverty - India
8
Incidence and Changes in Rural Poverty in States
1993-94
2004-05
80
Change in poverty(% points)
40
20
AP
Ker
Kar
TN
Raj
Mah
Guj
HP
Pun
Har
JK
MP
Asm
UP
Bih
Ors
WB
0
IND
Head Count Ratio
60
-20
-40
States
There is regional dimension to rural poverty. Eastern states have the highest
rural poverty followed by western states & southern states
Poverty Among SC, ST and All - Rural
9
80
70
60
Percentages
50
40
30
20
IND
HP
Pun
Har
Raj
JK
Guj
AP
Asm
Kar
UP
TN
Mah
Ker
Bih
Ors
WB
0
MP
10
States
ST
SC
All
Rural poverty also has social dimension; The HCR among Scheduled
Tribes (STs) is 48% and among Scheduled Castes (SC) is 35% in 2004-05
Poverty in Orissa
10
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47% rural population below official poverty line
44% urban population below official poverty line
Increase in urban poverty from 41% to 44% in 1993-94 to
2004-05 period
Rural poverty gap index value 12.1 and urban PG index
value 14.1 in 2004-05
Gini coefficient increased in rural from 24.6 to 28.5
Gini coefficient in urban increased from 30.7 to 35.4
Poverty among SCs is 50% and among STs is 77%
SCs 16.5% of state’s population and STs 22.1%
Poverty in Tamil Nadu
11
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23% rural population below official poverty line
22% urban population below official poverty line
Decrease in urban poverty from 40% to 22% in 1993-94 to
2004-05 period
Rural poverty gap index value 3.7 and urban PG index
value 5.3 in 2004-05
Gini coefficient increased in rural from 31.2 to 32.2
Gini coefficient in urban increased from 34.8 to 36.1
Poverty among SCs is 30% and among STs is 31%
SC 19% of state’s population and STs just 1%
IMRs - Manifestation
12
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Male
0
Orissa
Orissa
Tam il Nadu
Tam il Nadu
India
India
Fem ale
Person
Malnourishment Among Children
13
% Stunted
% Wasted
50
40
30
20
10
0
Orissa Tam il
Nadu
India
25
20
15
10
5
0
NFHS - 1
NFHS - 2
Orissa Tam il
Nadu
NFHS - 3
India
NFHS - 1
NFHS - 2
NFHS - 3
% Underweight
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Orissa Tam il
Nadu
India
NFHS - 1
NFHS - 2
NFHS - 3
Hazard prone areas of India
14
Disaster
Vulnerable States/ Regions
1
Tsunami*
Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Pondicherry and Andaman & Nicobar
Islands
2
Earthquake
Across the country with moderate – high intensity (over 65% of
the areas of India is vulnerable to earthquake)
3
Cyclones
Coastal areas – particularly in East coast & Gujarat (8% of area)
4
Floods
Indo-Gangetic plains and Brahamaputra
comprises 40 million hectares prone to floods)
5
Droughts
A slow disaster across the country (approx 68% of cropped
area affected)
6
Forest Fires
Himalayan Forests
7
Landslides
Sub-Himalayan region & western Ghats in particular
Of the 35 states and union territories, 27 area hazard prone
241 districts are multi-hazard prone
May to November months are the most hazard-prone
basin
(approx
15
Earthquake
Hazard
16
Wind & Cyclone
Hazard
Wind & Cyclone Hazard Zone, Orissa
17
Whole of
coastal region
is hazard proof
18
Coastal Tamil Nadu is
also hazard proof
Annual trends of Disaster - Orissa
19
Annual Distribution of Climatic Disasters (1998-2006)
250
200
150
100
2006
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
Year
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
Question of quality of
data
2001
0
2000
1000
1999
Number of Events
Year
Higher incidence
reported after 2003 in
Orissa because of better
reporting
Annual Distribution of Other Than Climatic Disasters
(1998-2006)
1998
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
0
1999
50
1998
Number of Events
300
Annual Disaster Trend – Tamil Nadu
20
Annual Distribution of Climatic and Water Related Disasers (19982006)
Annual Distribution of Geological Disasters (1998-2006)
90
2000
80
1800
70
1600
60
Data Cards
1200
1000
800
50
40
700
600
500
400
300
200
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
0
1998
100
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
0
Annual Distribution of Other Disasters (1998-2006)
Data Cards
2001
10
0
2000
20
200
1999
400
1998
30
600
1998
Data Cards
1400
Literacy Rate, 2004-05
21
Male
Female
Rural
Orissa
62.5
46.0
Tamil Nadu
72.4
54.5
All India
63.6
45.0
Orissa
77.3
66.4
Tamil Nadu
85.6
75.6
All India
80.5
69.3
Urban
SC – ST Literacy
22
Male
SC
Orissa
Tamil Nadu
All India
ST
Orissa
Tamil Nadu
All India
Rural
Female
Person
Male
Urban
Female
Person
61.1
64.5
59.3
36.2
43.6
31.5
48.8
53.3
45.6
80.6
83.1
80.7
46.8
64.9
55.0
64.6
74.1
68.5
43.9
43.9
54.2
19.7
19.7
28.5
31.3
30.2
41.4
70.4
71.9
82.4
39.1
35.5
60.1
54.5
58.1
71.3
Disaster Events (1998-2007)
10.1
4.8
0.1
23
Orissa : Natural Hazards (1998-2007)
Population affected
93.9
Flood
Cyclone
Lightning
42%
Heatw ave
Fire
40%
Epidem ic
Orissa
0%
0%
Cyclone dominates
disaster events
Flood
Epidemics lead population
affected
Epidemics lead human
deaths followed by cyclone
18%
Cyclone
Lightning
Heatwave
Fire
Epidemics
Orissa : Natural Hazards(1998-2007)
Human Death
2%
41%
39%
1%
Flood
Cyclone
9%
Lightning
8%
Heatwave
Fire
Epidemics
Orissa : Natural Hazards (1998-2007)
Destroyed Houses
0%
0%
7%
10%
24
83%
Flood
Cyclone
Lightning
Heatwave
Buildings largely
damaged by cyclone
Fire
Epidemics
Orissa : Natural Hazards (1998-2007)
Property Loss
0% 5% 0%
Property loss due to
floods
20%
75%
Flood
Cyclone
Lightning
Heatwave
Fire
Epidemics
Distribution of Disaster Data Cards (1998-2006)
15%
Distribution of Population Exposed by Type of Disaster (19982006)
34%
10%
2%
25
44%
2%
0%
1%
1%
1%
55%
34%
Flood
Rains
Lighting
Drought
Tsunam i
Flash Flood
Cyclone
Fire
Epidem ics
Fire
0%
Flood
Tamil Nadu
Largest death because of
Tsunami
Cyclone
0%
Tsunam i
Fire
Epidem ics
others
Distribution Human Deaths by Type of Disaster
(1998-2006)
0%
11%
22%
 Largest data cards of fire
 Largest proportion of
population exposed is
floods
1%
0%
5%
9%
49%
Flood
4%
Cyclone
Tsunam i
Lightning
Fire
Epidem ics
others
Distribution of Building Damaged &Destroyed by Type of
17%
Disaster (1998-2006)
Tamil Nadu
26
6%
8%
69%
0%
Flood
Cyclone
Tsunam i
Fire
others
Largest proportion of
buildings damaged because
of floods
Largest property damaged
because of floods
Distribution of Building Damaged &Destroyed by Type of
18%
Disaster (1998-2006)
8%
52%
16%
6%
Flood
Cyclone
Tsunam i
Fire
others
Key development and poverty
challenges
27

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Rural poverty
Low ranking on Hunger Index of India. Tamil Nadu
and Orissa in category of alarming level of hunger
Increasing inequalities
Children and women’s health
Low female literacy (taken as proxy for poverty in
some studies such as Gujarat State’s HDR)
A quarter in Tamil Nadu and about half households
in Orissa live in temporary house structures. This is
also a proxy for poverty
Methodology
28
Enhance
Poverty Outcomes
Disaster Risk
 The reverse loop Disaster Risk to Poverty requires longitudinal
household level data, which not available at the moment in India
Attempt is to capture poverty through
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Head Count Ratio (Private estimates)
Proportion of SC and ST (Population Census) (Proxy for poverty)
Temporary Housing (Population Census) (Proxy for poverty)
District Level Analysis of these dimensions of poverty with disaster data
Relationship of Poverty and Disaster Risk captured through correlations &
scatter diagrams
Data issues
29

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A Caution – District Level Poverty estimates are
private estimates and not individual estimates.
Official level poverty estimates are only upto state
level
Disinventar Data – Better reporting in the last three
years
TN – Tsunami dominates the impacts which cannot
be seen across all the districts (More than half the
deaths in last 10 years is because of tsunami)
Poverty disaster linkages – Some observations
30
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Tamilnadu reports 283 epidemic-related deaths whereas the figure
for Orissa is a shocking 9848. The poverty-disaster link can be
established here.
In Tamil Nadu, epidemic related deaths localised in 4 backward
districts, in Orissa spread throughout the state indicating poor public
provisioning of health care.
No death due to heat wave reported in Tamil Nadu inspite of warm
climate indicating possibility of quicker access to emergency care.
In Orissa, the bulk of disaster loss is borne by the coastal districts
which are not only at much higher levels of per capita income, but
also are better off in terms of infrastructure and human poverty
criteria than the interior districts. This is in part the consequence of
locational vulnerability to climatic hazards, and may also reflect the
greater degree of urbanization and higher density of population of
the coastal districts.
31
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Flood deaths are higher in Tamil Nadu than Orissa
because of higher population density in the former.
Fire related deaths in Tamil Nadu are higher than in
Orissa and are concentrated in the industrialized
belt of Chennai, Tiruvallur, Kancheepuram and
Vellore
Correlations – Poverty with disaster impacts
32
Orissa
Of HCR with
% permanent housing
% SC
-0.44
0.72
-0.20
% temporary housing
-0.14
% ST
Deaths per 100,000 population - floods
Deaths per 100,000 population - cyclone
Deaths per 100,000 population - heatwave
Deaths per 100,000 population – fire
Deaths per 100,000 population - epidemics
- 0.11
- 0.18
-0.23
-0.39
-0.41
HCR & Deaths Due to Floods
20
18
16
14
12
Series1
10
Linear (Series1)
8
6
4
2
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
HCR
HCR & Death Due to Epidemics, Orissa
1.4
Deaths due to epidemics
Deaths per 100000
33
1.2
1
0.8
Series1
0.6
Linear (Series1)
0.4
0.2
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
HCR
60
70
80
90
Correlations – Poverty with disaster impacts
34
Orissa
Of % SC with
% permanent housing
% temporary housing
Deaths per 100,000 population - floods
Deaths per 100,000 population - cyclone
Deaths per 100,000 population - heatwave
Deaths per 100,000 population – fire
Deaths per 100,000 population - epidemics
-0.21
0.37
0.16
-0.08
-0.12
0.21
0.23
Correlations – Poverty with disaster impacts
Orissa
35
Of % temporary housing with
Deaths per 100,000 population - floods
Deaths per 100,000 population - cyclone
Deaths per 100,000 population - heatwave
Deaths per 100,000 population – fire
Deaths per 100,000 population - epidemics
Population exposed (per 100,000 total population)
Population exposed to floods (per 100,000 total population)
Population exposed to cyclone (per 100,000 total population)
Population exposed to lightning (per 100,000 total population)
Population exposed fire (per 100,000 total population)
0.21
0.40
0.22
0.10
0.46
0.57
0.51
0.54
0.31
0.65
Orissa
36
37
Tamil Nadu
38
Tamil Nadu
Orissa
39
Tamil Nadu
Orissa
Conclusions
40


i)
ii)
The correlations presented are indications of
relationship existing
Two states taken contrast each other in
development trajectories and nature of state
policy
Orissa historically less developed, agricultural, subsistence economy, a
section of population adversely impacted by degrading natural
resources. Inefficient state in intervening for welfare.
Tamil Nadu, historically well developed, industrial economy, with a long
history of welfare interventions. Efficient welfare state
Way forward
41

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This report should lead to developing data base of
households in disaster prone areas. This should lead
to longitudinal data sets. Disaster management has
been mainstreamed in India in the 11th Plan
Document and such data can be useful.
Move towards district level poverty estimates
Improvement in Disinventor data itself.