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ABE
Whether the Abenomics
Still Has Positive Effects On Japanese Economy?
Present by Lun Wei(Allen)
Fanjian Kong(Frank)
Fanqi Peng(Jack)
Pan Rao(Damon)
Shinzo Abe
•
96th and current Prime Minister of
Japan
• the President of the LDP and
chairman of the Oyagaku propulsion
parliamentary group
• right-wing nationalist
• born into a political family
IMC
Abenomics
• Three arrows
• 1. fiscal stimulus: fiscal spending
will increase
A. 在此录入文字目录
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by 2% of GDP
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• 2. monetary easing: 2% target
inflation
rate
D. 在此录入文字目录
through quantitative easing
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F. 在此录入文字目录
• 3. structural reforms: encourage
private
investment
IMC
Background
• Lost Decade since the burstA.of在此录入文字目录
the Japanese asset
price bubble in the early 1990s.
B. 在此录入文字目录
C. 在此录入文字目录
• Raised consumption tax from
3% to 5% in 1997.
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• Global economic recessionE.in在此录入文字目录
2008.
F. passed
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• Yoshihiko Noda government
a bill to
Increase consumption tax rate to 8% in 2014 and
10% in 2015.
IMC
Economic Outlook in Japan 1994-1999
Year
NGDP
NGDP
(%)
Unemployed
persons
Economically active Unemployed rate
population
(%)
1994
486526.3
1.19
1920,ooo
66,450,000
2.88
1995
493271.7
1.38
2100,000
66,660,000
3.15
199
6
502608.9
1.89
2250,000
67,110,000
3.35
C. 在此录入文字目录
1997
512248.9
1.91
2300,000
67,870,000
3.38
199
8
502972.8
-1.81
2790,ooo
67,930,000
4.10
199
9
495226.9
-1.54
3170,000
67,790,000
4.67
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IMC
Effects
• Depreciation of Japanese yen
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• Unemployment rate fell fromA.4%
in the final
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quarter of 2012 to 3.7% in the
first
quarter
of
2013
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• The yen became about 25% lower
against the U.S
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E. 在此录入文字目录
dollar
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• The stock market had risen by 55%.
• Worsened Japan’s trade deficit as the weaker yen
increased the cost of imports.
IMC
A. 在此录入文字目录
Nationality and characteristic of Japanese
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C. 在此录入文字目录
D. 在此录入文字目录
E. 在此录入文字目录
F. 在此录入文字目录
IMC
Sense of discipline
• Mikado ---the emperor of Japan.
• Supreme leader of Shintoism
in Japan.
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• There were huge amount ofB.Japanese
adore the
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Mikado and follow the Mikado
especially in WW2
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enthusiastically.
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IMC
Japan in WW2
• The Mikado of Japan took an important role
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in WW2 include the invasion
in China during
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1937-1945
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• Due to the sense of discipline,
the Japan
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E. 在此录入文字目录
Army kill thousands and millions
of people
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in China by following the instructions of the
Mikado and the order by the superior.
IMC
Characteristic of Japanese
1. The Japanese always follow their boss
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order without any excuse no
matter it is
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right or wrong.
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2. Japanese tend to do theirD.best
in order
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to reach the standard which
was set by
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their leaders.
IMC
Fact of WW2
• The Prime Ministers of Japan had apologized to
China for the WWII about 23 times.A. 在此录入文字目录
• Meanwhile, the prime ministers in Japan
are trying
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to obscure the fact of invasion to the other Asian
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country.(make it ambiguous among the Japanese).
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Evident: The time that the prime ministers
had
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visited Yasukuni Shrine was 25 times
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These 2 things seem very contradictory.
IMC
Abe visiting Yasukuni Shrine
• Background of Yasukuni Shrine: honers
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the class A WWII criminals. A.The
visiting
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of Abe to Yasukuni Shrine hurt
the
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people in neighbour countryD. such
as
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China and Korea.
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IMC
Explaination of Abe visiting
Yasukuni Shrine
• By visiting Yasukuni Shrine and obscure
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the fact of invasion to the other
Asian
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country, the prime ministerC.can
keep
a
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good reputation and authority
of Mikado
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among the Japanese.
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• That is the way how the Japanese
protect their leader(Mikado).
IMC
Explaination of Abe visiting Yasukuni
Shrine
Mr Abe is convincing his people that
1.Japan is a superior nation and it is better
than any other
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country in Asia.
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2. Outside of Japan, when it comes toB.visiting
to Yasukuni, Mr
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Abe had to behave himself in a Japan-oriented
way. Only in
this way, he can lead Japanese peopleD.to在此录入文字目录
believe in thier
country and sacrifice for their country, thus, they will work
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harder, learn harder, which will improve
national economy.
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IMC
Economic Model
Sense of
Discipline
Lower population
growth rate.
Lack of labor force
Japanese completely
follow the economic
policy and birth control
policy
Endogenous
Model
Work harder,
study harder,
Positive impact Lower birth rate.
Economic take-off
during 1960-1980
Solow Model
Higher human
capital and lower
birth rate
Endogenous
Model
Economic
slowdown
Negative impact nowadays.
IMC
Change in characteristic among Japanese
man –Herbivore men hypothesis
• Herbivore men(草食男，草食系男子,초
A. 在此录入文字目录
식계)or grasseaters B. 在此录入文字目录
C. 在此录入文字目录
• Trait:
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1.The men who shun marriage
and rufuse
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to fall in love with girl. F. 在此录入文字目录
2.They are quiet, mild, lack of ambition
3.Behave became feminized(女性化)
IMC
Reason
• Herbivore men:
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1 Age between 20-30.
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2 Born in a enviroment that lack
of
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competitions. They don‘t
to worry
D. have
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what they eat and whatE. they
dress.
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3These type of men became
passive and
tend to wait for the opportunities rather
than searching for opportunities
IMC
Effect on Economy
• Herbivore men don't like to pay a lot of
A. 在此录入文字目录
times and attentions on their
jobs and
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works. Meanwhile, they likeC.to在此录入文字目录
spent
their time at home by themselves.
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E. 在此录入文字目录
• The saving behavior of Herbivore
men
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are tend to be conservative. They don't
like to spent time on manage their
money matter and investment.
IMC
Effects on economy
1 Lead to lower and lower birth rate
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(Herbivore men tend to avoid
marriage),
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in long run, it will do harm to
the
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economic growth.
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2 The herbivore men in business
became
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mild and lack of competitiveness. It will
go against economic growth.
IMC
Revive the economy
• Herbivore men hypothesis show a negative
development trend on nationalism.
But Abe want
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to achieve the high economic
growth again like the
B. 在此录入文字目录
period in post world war 2. C.In 在此录入文字目录
the period of post
ww2, Japanese governmentD.energize
the Japanese
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economy by arousing people's
nationalistic zeal in
E. 在此录入文字目录
their mind. And their patriotic
love for their
F. 在此录入文字目录
country. Thus people worker harder and study
harder in order to sacrifice for their country in the
future.
IMC
Herbivore men hypothesis
• There are lot of reasons and facts that leaded to
Japan economic slowdown. Such as technology
development in Korea are much more faster
than Japan today due to import technologies
directly form US. And Prof Hugh Patrick at
Harvard said that young Japanese are as good as
the old Japanese although they may look
different. But in the near future, we can see the
Herbivore men hypothesis effect the Japan
economy or not.
2016/4/1
IMC
political
IMC
Simple Economic Policies
• no special or new strategy
• depreciation
– Plaza Accord 1985
IMC
Political Appeals
• make Japan a normal country
– concentrate state power
• central bank
– implement Abenomics
• cabinet legislative bureau
– change constitution and get the right of collective selfdefence
• state television
IMC
Political Appeals
– improve all citizens confidence
• depreciate currency
– reduce other Asian countries competitive power
• visit Yasukuni Shrine
– redefine Japan's actions during the second world
war.
IMC
Fanli Asian Economic
Region
Flying Geese Model
U.S.A
Japan
Japan
Korea
Korea
China，India
China，India
Burma，Vietnam
Burma，Vietnam
IMC
Political aspect
IMC
Political actions
Mr. Abe’s visiting to Yasukuni (靖国神社）
The interview with Mr. Honda from WSJ was
quiet surprising, which was about the reason of
Mr. Abe’s visiting to Yasukuni and the subtext of
Japanese military build-up, which was denied
later.
IMC
Mr. Abe’s
Island
aggression
on
Fishing
IMC
Besides, Japan had been arguing with Korea
about the Takeshima Island for a long time.
IMC
Consequences of Political Side
of Abenomics
Besides, American government leader announced that they
did not believe in Mr. Abe’s visiting at first, but they also got
astonished after they had confirmed the news.
America had thrown cold water on Japan. The commander of
U.S Forces in Japan had emphasized that American military
will not be involved with the conflict between China and Japan
due to the Fishing Island issue.
IMC
The reflections of other countries’s media towards
Abe’s visiting to Yasukuni
Korean Media, YTN TV Station said, Abe will rise
while the whole Japan is going to fall
Russian News Media, said, Top leader of Japan
should not knee down in front of Japan’s criminals.
Switzerland Media said, Abe’s promise for
permanent peace is just saying.
Malaysia Media said, Abe’s visiting to Yasukuni
worsened the its relationship with the whole Asia.
IMC
Mr. Abe had aroused China’s public
anger.
IMC
Economy consequences due to the
political effect aroused by
Abenomics
The import and export from Japan to China and China
to Japan had been descended sharply.
IMC
Empirical experience
In 2013,
volume of the trade between China and
Japan was 312.55 billion dollar, which was
decreased by 5.1%.
Volume of goods and services export from
China to Japan was 150.28 billion dollar,
which was decreased by 0.9%.
Volume of goods and services import from
Japan to China was 162.28 billion dollar,
which was decreased by 8.7%.
IMC
Empirical experience
In 2012, nominal GDP of Japan is 5938.545 billion US dollar
In 2013, nominal GDP of Japan is 4898.113 billion US dollar
Decreased by 17.5%
IMC
Conclusion
Mr. Abe’s political strategy does not suit for the situations in the presentday.
It is undoubted that it is efficient to improve economy by arousing
people’s passion and love for their country, which is also increasing
human capital.
However, if Mr. Abe keeps establishing his policy, it would harm the
relationship with Japan and the whole Asia, which will definitely lead to a
economy descend.
Abenomics is only ethnocentrism if Japan does not behave humble to
other countries.
Abenomics, as an extremely dangerous political policy that it can hardly
help Japan to develop economy in the future.
IMC