Transcript impact of hurricane keith in belize

IMPACT OF HURRICANE
KEITH IN BELIZE
EVALUTION TEAM MEMBERS
• 15 members
• 6 consultants and experts from other
international organizations: IICA,
PAHO and UNICEF
• technical and logistic support from
IDB’s representation
• full cooperation of Belize government
SCHEDULE
12 -22 November 2000
•
•
•
•
13-17 - Information gathering
18-21 - Preparation of draft report
22 - Submission of report to Government
23- 27 - Editing, revising and printing of
report
• 28 - Formal submission to Government and
IDB for trasmsittal to Friends of Belize
• 7 December (in Washington, at IDB)
Friends of Belize Conference
WHAT DO WE MEASURE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF
NATURAL DISASTERS
•
•
•
•
Direct damages
Indirect Damages
Total cost of damages
Global (macroeconomic)
effects
DIRECT DAMAGES
• Are all damages to assets (capital, inventories and stock,
finished products, inputs and production in process, raw
materials, spare parts, etc.).
• It includes damage to property that occurs simultaneously
or immediately after the disastrous event.
• Covers damage to physical infrastructure, buildings,
machinery and equipment, warehouses, transport
infrastructure and equipment, furnishings, agricultural soil,
inputs and production --including crops on ground not
collected-- irrigation and drainage works, dams and
reservoirs, etc.
• Is measured in physical terms and is assigned a
value in monetary terms.
CONSIDERATION OF
REPLACEMENT COSTS
Value is assigned on “as is” basis:
• present value of assets including
• depreciation, tear and wear and
• level of maintenance or repair,
not replacement (at current costs of
similar good) or reconstruction
(improved, less risky, technologically
upgraded, etc.)
CONSIDERATION OF
REPLACEMENT COSTS
In the productive sectors replacement costs imply
• losses in assets (infrastructure and lost production
damaged by the event),
• income lost and production that will not be
obtained indirectly due to the event, and
• investment that will have to be made to recuperate
a similar production level to pre-hurricane levels.
This preliminary estimate will vary in time,
according to price fluctuations in the coming
months, financial resources available and timeframe associated with investment maturity and
natural growth of plants.
INDIRECT DAMAGES
• Are losses in flows (production that will not be
realised, goods and services not provided or
made costlier due to the disaster).
• Includes additional costs due to the
emergency in the distribution, marketing and
consumption cycle.
• Are measured in monetary terms (not
physical), at current (pre-disaster)
prices and establishing changes in
these.
INDIRECT DAMAGES (2)
• Increased operational costs due to destruction or
damage to infrastructure and other assets, including
stocks.
• Additional production costs and increased costs in
distribution and supply of goods and services due to use
of alternate means.
• Income losses resulting of diminished economic
activity (both in terms of production and distribution).
• Extraordinary costs associated with emergency needs
(such as health and hygiene campaigns, vaccination
programmes, potabilization of water, etc.).
• Extraordinary investments for the (temporary)
resettlement of activities (production, distribution,
TOTAL COST OF DAMAGES
• It is the sum total of direct and indirect
damages, in material (physical) terms and monetary
value, attributable to the disaster.
• Is undervalued and tends to reflect mostly the
direct damages without considering the
emergency costs (search and rescue, provision of
food, medicines, shelter, temporary displacement of
activities, etc.
• Does not quantify value of lives lost, recording
only the number of deaths, injured, disappeared or
most severely affected.
GLOBAL EFFECTS
• Refers to the impact on the overall performance of
the economy, measured by the main economic variables.
• Are felt during a certain lapse of time after the disaster:
– in the short run (6 months to a year in terms of
emergency and rehabilitation),
– medium-term 2 to 4 years) in terms of rehabilitationreconstruction, and
– in the long run (in terms of permanent structural
change, cancellation of development opportunities and
assets never replaced.
MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS
• Are measured as the difference in the performance of main economic
indicators after the disaster and the existing projections or estimates
before its occurrence.
• Includes the relative value of the following:
– Gross Domestic Product, aggregated and by sectors.
– Balance of payments and trade balance.
– Indebtedness level and monetary reserves.
– Public finances balance (change in the relation between income
and outlays).
– Net capital formation (gross investment)
– Price variations (inflation)
– Employment/unemployment levels
– Family and personal income
– Other social indicators (education, health, housing, etc.)
Eastern Caribbean - Real GDP at Factor
Cost
4
3.8
3.5
Annual Percentage Change
3
3.1
3
2.7
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.7
0.5
0
1994
Source: Statistical Offices, OECS
1995
1996
Year
1997
1998
MAJOR TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANES IN THE
CARIBBEAN, 1990-1999
Year
1990
Classification
Name
Area
Tropical Storm
Hurricane
Tropical Storm
Hurricane
Tropical Storm
Hurricane
Hurricane
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Hurricane
Arthur
Diana
Fran
Klaus
Fabian
Caesar
Andrew
Bret
Cindy
Debby
Gordon a/
Erin
Tobago/St. Vincent and the Grenadines
Yucatan
Trinidad
Virgin Islands
Cuba
Trinidad and Tobago/Netherlands Antilles
Bahamas
Trinidad/ Belize
Martinique
St. Lucia
Jamaica/Cuba/Bahamas
Bahamas
Hurricane
Iris
Leeward Islands
Hurricane
Marilyn
Hurricane
Luis
Virgin Islands b/ Netherlands
Antilles/Leeward Islands/Dominica/Puerto
Rico
Leeward Islands c/ Netherlands Antilles
1996
1997
1998
Hurricane
Hurricane
Lili
None
Georges
1999
1999
Hurricane
Hurricane
Floyd
Jose
Hurricane
Hurricane
Hurricane
Lenny
Irene
Dennis
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
Cuba/ Bahamas
Dates
22-27 July
3-7 August
11-14 August
2-9 October
14-15 October
24-29 July
16-27 August
4-11 August
14-17 August
9-11 September
8-21 November
31 July
6 August
22 August
4 September
12–22 September
27 August
11 September
14–27 October
Leeward Islands/Netherlands
Antilles/Puerto Rico/Dominican
Republic/Haiti/Cuba
Bahamas
Anguilla/Netherlands Antilles/Leeward
Islands/British Virgin Islands
15 September
1 October
Netherlands Antilles/ Virgin Islands
Cuba
Bahamas
13-27 November
13-19 October
24 August
7 September
Source: United States National Hurricane Centre.
a/
Haiti severely affected. Rain/Floods.
b/
US and British Virgin Islands.
c/
Antigua and Barbuda, St. Barts, St. Maarten, Anguilla.
7-17 September
17-25 October
Contents of report
The proposed outline for the report will include:
– Summary and conclusions
– Description of the event (magnitude,
extent, force)
– Sectoral evaluations
– Summary of damages
– Overall economic, infrastructural,
social, and environmental impact
– Macroeconomic and other policy
implications
– Towards a reconstruction strategy:
risk reduction and vulnerability
mitigation
– A tentative list of project profiles for
reconstruction and mitigation
– The need for external cooperation
Social damages
– Population/areas affected
– Impact on social sectors (accounting both
on infrastructure losses and cost of
services lost and extraordinary expenses
associated with the emergency)
• Health
• Education (including sport facilities)
• Housing
• Living conditions (effects on social fabric, on
different socio-economic groups, including
the gender perspective, employment, etc.)
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
Caye
Caulker
Rest of
San Pedro Belize City
Belize
District
Orange
Rest of
COROZAL
CAYO
Walk Town
District
DISTRICT DISTRICT
Living In Flooded Areas
14,717
9,303
2435
11,393
19,126
5,823
Living in Flooded Houses
2,943
1,920
487
2,245
610
1,165
Living in Shelters
0
65
0
Homeless
279
3,000
0
Displaced
279
3,000
0
4,555
Isolated
At high risk of Health Impairment
420
1,300
10,000
14,711
9,303
2,855
1,636
7,509
1396
12,681
15,419
5,823
Types Of Trauma Management Programmes
conducted
Group Trauma management counselling
(with persons over age 30 in one shelter with a
population of 130)
Conflict resolution counselling meetings
Support group meetings for psychiatric, medical and
social worker staff
Public service announcements for stress and crisis
management
Individual
and
family
counselling;
stress
management.
SUMMARY OF DAMAGES TO THE HEALTH SECTOR
(Belize dollars)
Damage
Reconstruction
costs
Total
Direct
Indirect
TOTAL
3,888,000
2,558,000
1,330,000
2,855,000
Partial or total destruction of
1,130,000
1,120,000
10,000
2,200,000
health infrastructure
Loss equipment and furnishings
640,000
640,000
Health community education
70,000
70,000
material
Extra spending on drugs and
524,000
104,000
420,000
5,000
medications
Vector control-environmental
674,000
674,000
sanitation activities
Increase cost of inpatient,
123,000
123,000
outpatient and medical care
Epidemiological surveillance
30,000
30,000
Damages in rural water supply
157,000
157,000
250,000
systems (wells, rain water vat)
Damages in rural sanitation
537,000
537,000
400,000
systems (latrines)
Psycho-social rehabilitation
3,000
3,000
(consultancy and training
materials)
Imported
components
1,600,000
1,500,000
100,000
SUMMARY OF EFFECTS ON THE EDUCATION SECTOR
TOTAL
Direct effects:
i. Reparation of schools
ii. Replacement of school materials
and furnishings
iii. Damages to libraries
iv. Damages to sport facilities
Imported Component
Indirect effects:
i. Cost of teachers during class
suspension
ii. Damages for use as shelters
Belize dollars
3,038,302
2,289,090
958,195
810,000
102,000
418,894
911,490
749,212
622,125
127,087
40,000,000
35,000,000
30,000,000
25,000,000
20,000,000
15,000,000
10,000,000
5,000,000
0
TOTAL
San Pedro
Caye Caulker
Belize District
(other than
cayes)
Orange Walk
Cayo District
Corozal District
1,988
406
275
65
1,212
30
0
Cost of damages
21,725,300
10,280,000
6,625,000
2,761,000
1,889,300
90,000
80,000
Reconstruction costs
36,989,300
12,670,000
9,625,000
3,490,000
11,034,300
90,000
80,000
Number
ESTIMATED RECONSTRUCTION COSTS
Belize dollars
TOTAL
Direct effects:(i+ii+iii)
i. Reparation
ii. Replacement
iii. Cost of furnishings
Imported Component
Secondary effects (relocation)
106,416,855
93,470,600
36,989,300
46,735,300
9,746,000
16,757,063
12,946,255
Infrastructure damages
• Basic services and lifelines
• Transportation
and
port/docking
facilities
• Telecommunications
• Energy
• Public buildings and infrastructure
• Urban services
BELIZE: TRANSPORT DIRECT COST OF DAMAGE
(Belize dollars)
Sub sector
Total
damages
Total
reconstruction Labour
costs
National
Foreign
Total
46,735,790
32,726,357 5,028,785 14,321,253 13,376,319
Infrastructure (public sector)
43,550,790
28,901,357 4,991,285 14,313,753
9,596,319
Roads network
23,154,392
25,804,990 4,273,806 12,938,160
8,593,024
Airports
Ports
Villages and town streets
and urban infrastructure
Equipment (private operators
& owners)
Vehicles (buses) a/
Aircraft
Vessels b/
75,000
115,000
66,000
27,500
21,500
516,747
678,857
190,977
196,838
291,042
19,804,651
2,302,510
460,502
1,151,255
690,753
3,185,000
3,825,000
37,500
7,500
3,780,000
150,000
150,000
30,000
7,500
112,500
2,395,000
2,875,000
7,500
0
2,867,500
640,000
800,000
0
0
800,000
BELIZE: TRANSPORTATION INDIRECT COSTS
(Belize dollars)
Sub sector
Total cost
Government
Private users &
operators
Total indirect cost
33,633,646
859,115
32,774,531
Highways
32,240,193
4,025
32,236,168
22,328,299
4,025
22,324,274
527,612
0
527,612
9,384,282
0
9,384,282
1,393,453
855,090
538,363
Airport
893,453
855,090
38,363
Airlines lost of income
500,000
0
500,000
Port
0
0
0
Port facilities
0
0
0
n.a.
n.a
n.a.
Cut of roads
Use of alternative roads
Roads condition
Airport
Operators lost of income
Source: ECLAC.
BELIZE: ASSESSMENT OF DAMAGES ON DRINKING WATER AND
SANITATION NETWORKS a/
City
Total
Direct
Indirect b/
Reconstruction c/,
Foreign currency
d/
Total
1,854.7
1,654.7
200.0
3,403.7
2,866.5
Belize
Belmopan c/
Orange Walk Town
d/
Corozal Town d/
San Ignacio/Sta.
Elena e/
San Pedro
Sales (global) f/
Others f/
1,489.6
39.7
140.4
1,489.6
39.7
140.4
-
269.9
1,371.1
202.9
1,165.4
265.1
15.1
265.1
15.1
-
1,371.1
391.6
1,165.4
332.8
635.6
200.0
51.3
635.6
200.0
-
-
-
-
-
51.3
BELIZE: SUMMARY ASSESSMENT ON THE ENERGY SECTOR
(Thousands of Belize dollars)
Total
Total
Electrical sub-sector
Generation
Transmission and
distribution
Sales
Clean up/Others
Direct
Indirect
Reconstruction
Foreign
currency
4,232.7
3,115.3
1,117.4
4,446.5
3,557.4
823.60
1,538.7
823.60
1,538.7
-
1,420.00
2,136.5
1,136.00
1,741.9
1,455.4
415.0
338.0
415.0
1,117.4
-
890.0
-
722.0
-
Source: ECLAC on the basis of official reports and figures from BEL.
Notes: 1) Hydrocarbon sub-sector reported no damages.
BELIZE : ASSESSMENT OF DAMAGES ON TELECOMMUNICATION
(Thousands of Belize dollars)
Total
BZ$
US$
City
Caye Caulker
San Pedro
Sales (Global)
2,422.4
1,211.2
Total
614.4
921.6
886.4
Direct
Indirect a/ Reconstruction
c/
b/
1,536.0
886.4
4,850.0
768.0
443.2
2,425.0
Direct
614.4
921.6
Indirect
886.4
Reconstruction
1,940.0
2,910.0
Foreign
Currency c/
3,637.5
1,818.8
Foreign
Currency
1,455.0
2,182.5
Economic sector losses
• Agriculture, fisheries, and other rural
activities
• Industry (including free zones) and
services (commercial, financial, etc.)
• Tourism (both effects on infrastructure
losses and damages to hotels,
restaurants, etc., flows of visitors,
cruise-ship visitors, impact on ground
operations (tour operators, travel
agencies, etc.)
BELIZE: SUMMARY OF DAMAGES TO THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR
113,370
Affected
area
(Ha)
37,690
Export crops
Sugar
Citrus
Papaya (papaw)
Habanero pepper
Cotton
49,961
24,281
25,528
49
22
81
6,434
3,800
2,553
42
19
20
272,264
187,800
81,891
2,376
188
9
20,693.6
7,843.9
8,023.8
4,294.8
331.2
200.0
31,244.4
23,285.3
5,976.2
1,775.9
207.0
0
51,938.0
31,129.2
14,000.0
6,070.7
538.2
200.0
Domestic
consumption crops
Rice
Corn
Soybeans
Plantain
Beans
Other fruits
Vegetables
Root crops
21,272
2,837
15,827
279
490
182
1,342
250
65
14,594
2,439
10,994
184
375
87
294
180
41
42,010
8,199
18,485
372
11,067
97
1,451
2,107
232
20,456.9
4,699.5
6,927.6
270.6
2,927.8
156.5
1,522.9
3,792.9
159.1
4,821.2
2,164.4
0
219.0
2,437.8
0
0
0
0
25,278.1
6,863.9
6,927.6
489.6
5,365.6
156.5
1,522.9
3,792.9
159.1
Total area
(Ha)
Grand total
Loss of
production
(t)
266,982
Damages (thousands of BZ$)
Direct
Indirect
Total
77,469.0
46,889.1
124,358.1
Livestock (Heads/Meat)
Cattle
Pigs
Poultry
Horses
Buffaloes
Sheep/Goats
Pastures (Has.)
Fisheries
Lobster
Conch
Other fish products
Fishing Equipment,
Materials, Infrastructure
Beekeeping
(Hives/Honey)
Capital Goods
(excluding fisheries)
Machinery
Infrastructure
Equipment & Materials
Total Area Affected Area Production
(Has)
(Tons)
554,122
38,077
173
52,060
288
78
19,000
130
35
479,000
37,635
58
3,000
15
62
2
1.0
1,000
7
0.2
42,136
17,627
-
Sector damages
Direct
Indirect
14,560,519
4,507,300
181,100
4,507,300
24,000
0
121,080
0
7,500
0
1,600
0
2,450
0
14,222,789
0
Total
19,067,819
4,688,400
24,000
121,080
7,500
1,600
2,450
14,222,789
-
-
198
100
72
26
9,554,295
4,831,508
1,197,675
167,872
3,357,240
6,205,908
4,941,315
1,077,908
186,686
15,760,203
9,772,823
2,275,583
354,558
3,357,240
800
612
37
107,100
110,160
217,260
12,096,550
0
12,096,550
148,000
11,689,000
259,550
0
0
0
148,000
11,689,000
259,550
TOURIST ARRIVALS PROJECTED 2000-2001
Philip Goldson International Airport
18,000
17,132
Arrivals projected
without H. Keith
16,000
15,623
14,000
13,019
12,678
12,564
12,100
10,565
11,410
11,356
11,171
10,470
10,376
10,000
9,877
8,687
8,000
7,055
Arrivals projected
with H.Keith
6,980
Actual arrivals
6,000
5,611
4,118
4,000
2,000
Feb-01
Ene-01
Dic-00
Nov-00
Oct-00
Sep-00
Ago-00
Jul-00
Jun-00
May-00
Abr-00
Mar-00
Feb-00
0
Ene-00
Number of tourists
12,000
BELIZE: DIRECT DAMAGES IN TOURISM
(Ambergris Caye/San Pedro, Caye Caulker, Caye Chapel)
(Thousands of
BZ$)
Total
1. Hotel buildings (including furniture, equipment, damage golf
course) a/
2. Gift shops a/
3. Restaurants a/
4. Landscaping b/
5. Piers/marinas c/
6. Seawalls + backshore d/
7. Tourist related boats (140) a/
124,094.0
84,000.0
10,000.0
11,800.0
2,560.0
1,134.0
10,400.0
4,200.0
SUMMARY OF DIRECT AND INDIRECT DAMAGES IN TOURISM
SECTOR
TOTAL
DIRECT DAMAGE
INDIRECT
DAMAGE
TOTAL
Impact in international
trade
124,094,000
79,100,000
36,299,000
36,299,000
160,393,000
115,284,000
BELIZE: SUMMARY OF DAMAGES IN INDUSTRY AND COMMERCE
(Thousands of BZ$)
Total industry
Free trade zone
Timber processing
Agroindustry commerce
(loss of stock and inventory
Total damage
Direct
45,829.6
128.0
3,205.0
41,115.0
1,381.6
30,659.6
60.0
2,925.0
26,293.0
1,381.6
Indirect
15,170.0
68.0
280.0
14,822.0
-
Impact on
international
trade
41,165.0
50.0
41,115.0
-
Environmental, cultural and
historical damages
• To ecosystems (marine life, cays, reef,
natural reserves, ecological parks, etc.)
• to archaeological sites and cultural
heritage
• Assign an economic value to these
losses in terms of:
– intervention to redress damage
– environmental services lost (for the period
of recovery)
– assets lost
HURRICANE KEITH
(WAVES, WIND, RAINFALL)
IMPACTS ON:
Wildlife (birds)

Dead birds

Habitat
destruction
(nesting and
feeding sites)
Water quality

Turbidity

Floating seagrass

contamination
Beaches

Erosion

Sedimentation
plumes

Debris
Sea-grass beds

Mechanical
damage

Excess
siltation

Smothering
TOURISM
(RECREATION)
LAND
FISHERIES
SUPPORT OF
MARINE LIFE
Mangroves

Defoliation

Uprooting of
isolated
trees
Coral reef

Mechanical damage
in located areas

Other impacts to
assess (smothering,
algae growth,
damages fishing
grounds)
COASTAL
PROTECTION
WILDLIFE HABITAT
FISHERIES
COASTAL PROTECTION
TOURISM
FISHERIES
UNIQUE ECOSYSTEM
Mainland :

Flooding

Changes in
water courses
ENVIRONMENTAL GOODS
AND SERVICES INVOLVED
TOURISM
(RECREATION)
HABITAT
TOURISM
(RECREATION)
NAVIGATION
FISHING
HIDROLOGICAL
REGULATION
ENVIRONMENTAL DAMAGE ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT SCHEME
HURRICANE KEITH
IMPACTS UPON PHYSICAL
INFRASTRUCTURE
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES
Damage to
tourist
infrastructure
- Buildings
- Piers
- Boats
- Protection
Loss of
boats and
fishing gear
HEALTH EFFECTS
DAMAGES TO
FISHING SECTOR
Loss of water quality
(turbidity, floating seagrass)
INDIRECT DAMAGE
Valuation of environmental
services lost included in the
damage assessment of:



Tourism sector
Fisheries
Water sanitation
DAMAGES TO
TOURISM BUSINESS
Birds habitat destruction
Damages to seagrass beds
Damages to coral reef
Damages to mangroves
Beach erosion
ESTIMATION OF DIRECT
DAMAGES
 Mangroves
 Beach clean-up
 Beach erosion
 Coral reef
Overflow of
sewer
lagoons and
inundation of
septic tanks
NO ESTIMATION OF
DIRECT DAMAGES
ENVIRONMENTAL DAMAGE ASSESSMENT
DIRECT DAMAGES
 Property loss by beach erosion a/
 Damage to mangroves b/
 Damage to coral reef
 Beaches clean up (Caye Caulker and Ambergris
Caye)
 Damages
to
infrastructure
of
Lamanai
(archeological site) c/
 Damages to Crooked Tree Wildlife Sanctuary d/
TOTAL
(000 Bz$)
3,240
40,000
4,240
1,060
500
11
49,051
Overall economic impact
• (on the basis of expected performance
ex ante of the event and the
measurement made by the mission of
post-facto effects), indicating:
– impact on macroeconomic variables (such
as GDP, external/fiscal balances, etc.),and
– projected reconstruction needs in the
short/medium term
ASSESSMENT OF TOTAL DIRECT AND INDIRECT DAMAGE
(Thousands of Belize dollars)
Direct damage
Total
Indirect damage
Total damage
423,281.4
136,812.3
560,093.7
Social sector
Housing
Health
Education
73,307.7
68,460.6
2,558.0
2,289.1
2,239.4
160.2
1,330.0
749.2
75,547.1
68,620.8
3,888.0
3,038.3
Infrastructure
Transport
Telecommunication
Energy & electricity
Water and sewerage
53,041.8
46,735.8
1,536.0
3,115.3
1,654.7
35,837.4
33,633.6
886.4
1,117.4
200.0
88,879.2
80,369.4
2,422.4
4,232.7
1,854.7
232,222.3
124,094.0
77,469.0
98,358.0
36,298.9
46,889.1
330,580.3
160,392.9
124,358.1
30,659.3
49,051.0
10,482.9
1,844.6
8,580.7
57.6
15,170.0
0.0
377.5
377.5
-
45,829.3
49,051.0
10,860.4
377.5
1,844.6
8,580.7
57.6
5,175.7
0.0
5,175.7
Economic sectors
Tourism
Agriculture, livestock &
fisheries
Industry & commerce
Environment
Miscellaneous
Emergency expenditures
Cost of food
Cost of services
Cost of services interrupted
Foreign assistance
SUMMARY OF DAMAGES
Thousand of US dollars
Direct
damage
Indirect
damage
Total
damage
Total
211,640.7
68,406.2
280,046.9
Social sector
Infrastructure
Economic sectors
Environment
Miscellaneous
Emergency expenditures
Foreign Assistance
36,653.9
26,520.9
116,111.2
24,525.5
5,241.5
2,587.9
1,119.7
17,918.7
49,179.0
0.0
188.8
188.8
0.0
37,773.6
44,439.6
165,290.2
24,525.5
5,430.2
188.8
2,587.9
Source: ECLAC
The summary data on direct and indirect
damage indicates that
– the most affected sectors are the productive
ones:
– tourism and agriculture represent over 47
per cent of the direct damage measured.
– Total damage to the economic sectors is
estimated as 59 per cent of total damage
– Losses of infrastructure account for about 16
per cent of total damage.
Their repair or replacement must be a priority
as they perform a generator function to
economic and social activity nation-wide.
KEITH’S IMPACT ON BELIZE ECONOMY
Total damage as percentage of GDP (nominal estimate after Keith)
45.7
Total damage as percentage of exports 1999
78.8
Total damage as percentage of imports 1999
64.3
Direct damage as percentage of gross capital formation 1999
92.0
Indirect damage as percentage of domestic savings 1999
45.5
Indirect damage as percentage of consumption 1999
12.7
KEITH’S EFFECTS ON GDP
1998
GDP (real)
1999
2000 (Pre 2000 (Post
Keith) a/
Keith) a/
2001 a/
2002 a/
1,097,612 1,165,242 1,234,801 1,223,262 1,253,490 1,336,331
I. Primary activities
1.1 Agriculture
202,451
146,920
225,752
157,819
251,965
168,651
233,774
156,300
234,604
148,628
259,568
159,537
II. Secondary activities
2.1 Manufacturing
2.2 Electricity & water
2.3 Construction
249,301
143,484
43,322
62,495
255,929
150,502
31,594
73,832
271,088
151,016
32,333
87,739
277,148
155,200
29,821
92,126
290,642
149,196
29,631
111,815
313,365
151,723
30,031
131,611
III. Service
3.1 Trade, rests., hotels
3.2 Transport &
communications
3.3 Finance & insurance
3.4 Real estate & bus service
3.5 Public administration
3.6 Communications & other
services
Per capita GDP ($)
Annual per cent growth in
GDP
699,886
234,801
114,843
729,434
245,745
123,704
758,489
258,084
125,600
759,080
256,866
125,112
774,685
264,496
124,565
810,179
285,509
127,730
73,208
70,370
136,716
76,679
73,888
137,579
81,802
78,772
141,178
81,802
78,772
142,174
85,562
82,337
143,524
90,403
86,939
144,037
69,948
4,612
1.5
71,840
4,795
6.2
73,053
4,881
6.0
74,354
4,835
5.0
74,200
4,812
2.5
75,561
4,977
6.6
KEITH’S EFFECTS ON GDP
1998
2000
Pre
1999 Keith
(BZ$ millions)
GDP at current market prices
1,351.4 1,374.2
GDP by industry at current factor cost
1,051.2 1,154.9
GDP by industry at constant 2000 prices 1,097.6 1,165.2
(US$ millions)
GDP by industry at current factor cost
525.6 577.5
GDP by industry at constant 2000 prices
548.8 582.6
Percentage change in GDP at current
1.1
9.9
prices
GDP growth, constant (2000) prices
(after Keith)
1.5
6.2
Source: ECLAC.
1,469.3
1,234.8
1,234.8
2000
Post
Keith
2001
2002
1,470.2 1,536.4 1,659.4
1,223.3 1,289.8 1,400.5
1,223.3 1,253.5 1,336.3
617.4
617.4
6.9
611.7
611.7
5.9
644.9
626.8
5.4
700.3
668.2
8.6
6.0
5.0
2.5
6.6
KEITH’S EFFECTS ON GDP
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
1998
1999
2,000.0
2001
2002
GDP growth, constant (2000) prices (after Keith)
Estimated GDP grouth, constant (2000) prices (withouth Keith)
Reconstruction strategy and
priorities
• Definition of a mitigation and reconstruction
strategy
• Capital losses and reconstruction funds
needed
• Social sectors restitution and compensation
mechanisms
• Identification of local constraints and
resource-complements required to
overcome them
• appeal of assistance in reconstruction (as
distinct from the emergency needs)
• role of the private sector
ANNEX:
• List of project profiles in the form of
individual fact sheet for each profile
indicating sector, content, objectives,
actions to be performed, total cost, local
inputs and external resources needed,
indicating executing agency suggested
and possible source of resources.
Sector composition of the projects
identified
In the amount of BZ$211.6 million (or US$105.8) in
percentages:
Projects in social sectors
48.0
Health and sanitation
2.5
Education
1.4
Housing
Energy, water supply, sanitation and
telecommunications
44.1
6.1
Transport subsector
15.8
Productive sectors
24.8
Agriculture
24.3
Tourism
0.5
Environmental management
5.3
Prevention and mitigation
Thus the urgency to face the challenge
not only of replacing lost housing and
other social infrastructure but to do so
with new, more resilient criteria and
giving full attention to risk reduction
since –as Keith made apparent—
Belizean society has a high level of
exposed vulnerability.
On occasion an event like Keith –fortunately enough without
major losses of lives as has recently occurred in other
countries—opens the opportunity for a change of policy and
a soul-searching effort to avoid preserving or aggravating
presently negative trends. Certainly Keith represents an
economic setback in some aspects but it may be just the
kind of reminder needed to give a hard look to ongoing
processes that may be rectified.
IMPACT OF HURRICANE KEITH IN BELIZE