Transcript AGR - Farm Foundation

IMPACTS OF NAFTA ON
AGRI-FOOD TRADE FLOWS:
A MEXICAN PERSPECTIVE
ASERCA-SAGARPA
August, 2001
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AND
TRADE OUTLOOK
ASERCA
 Mexican agrifood sector has successfully integrated to world markets.
 During the period 1993-1999, agrifood exports showed an annual rate of
growth of 11.6%, while agrifood imports of 6.1%.
MEXICAN AGRIFOOD TRADE BALANCE
1993 - 1999
SECTORS
AGR %
93/99
10000
Millions dollars
8000
6000
4000
2000
0.0
-2000
-4000
1993
1994
Exports
1995
1996
Imports
1997
1998
1999
Trade Balance
AGRIFOOD
EXPORTS
11.6
AGRIFOOD
IMPORTS
6.1
AGRICULTURAL
EXPORTS
8.3
AGRICULTURAL
IMPORTS
7.5
PROCESSED
FOOD
EXPORTS
19.1
PROCESSED
FOOD
IMPORTS
6.1
FOOD CONSUMPTION COSTS OUTLOOK
ASERCA
 Opening of Mexican economy to international competition has influenced
the evolution of most consumer prices, including food.
 No single food price in Mexico is under control by the government.
 The consumer price index for food grew 6.1% in 2000, 2.9 percentage
points below general inflation.
PRODUCTS WITH INCREASES IN PRICES
PRODUCTS WTIH DECREASES IN PRICES

Tomatoes
61.5%

Rice
2.8%

Peppers
88.6%

Dry edible beans 7.8%

Avocados
17.5%

Oranges
15.4%

Guavas
19.2%

Apples
9.1%
AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS / AGRICULTURAL GDP RATIO
Agricultural exports have gained importance in agricultural GDP:
 21.1 per cent of agricultural GDP is generated by exports.
 15.9 per cent of agri – food GDP is generated by exports.
AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS/AGRICULTURAL GDP RATIO
25,000
35
30
20,000
25
20.4%
15,000
20.6%
21.1%
20
20.3%
(%)
Million dollars
29.4%
15
10,000
13.0%
10
5,000
5
0
0
1994
Agricultural Exports
México-World
1995
1996
1997
Agricultural GDP
1998
1999
Agricultural Exports /
Agricultural GDP (%)
MEXICAN AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS FIGURES
AGRIFOOD EXPORTS/TOTAL EXPORTS RATIO, MEXICO – WORLD
Million dollars
Concept
1995
1996
1997
1998
60,817.2
79,540.6
96,003.7
110,236.8
117,459.6
136,391.1
17.53
Agri – food exports Mexico - World
4,031.7
5,786.2
5,724.7
6,337.5
6,746.0
6,985.9
11.62
Agri – food exports / Total Exports
of Mexico (%)
6.6
7.3
6.0
5.7
5.7
5.1
(5.03)
Total exports of Mexico
PERFORMANCE OF MEXICAN AGRIFOOD EXPORTS
WITH NAFTA AND REST OF THE WORLD
AGR
10.9%
7,000
(Million dollars)
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
AGR
15.8%
1,000
-
1994
1995
1996
Rest of the World
Source: SAGARPA and Secretary of Economics.
1997
1998
1999
Mexico - NAFTA
(Years)
1999
AGR
99/94
1994
The rate of agri-food exports to
total
exports
has
been
diminishing, even though agrifood exports have increased at an
average growth rate (AGR) of
11.6 per cent.
Data shows no trade diversion on
the side of exports due to NAFTA.
Trade remains concentrated with
NAFTA Partners.
MEXICAN AGRICULTURAL IMPORTS FIGURES
AGRIFOOD IMPORTS/TOTAL EXPORTS RATIO, MEXICO – WORLD
Million dollars
Concept
1995
1996
1997
1998
60,817.2
79,540.6
96,003.7
110,236.8
117,459.6
136,391.1
17.53
Agri – food imports Mexico - World
7,343.2
5,252.9
7,678.3
8,610.1
8,546.7
6,985.9
11.62
Agri - food imports / Total Exports
of Mexico (%)
12.1
6.6
8.0
6.9
7.3
6.3
(12.2)
Total exports of Mexico
PERFORMANCE OF MEXICAN AGRIFOOD IMPORTS
WITH NAFTA AND REST OF THE WORLD
ARG
4.4%
9,000
8,000
(Million dollars)
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
1999
AGR
99/94
1994
Food imports vs total exports
measures vulnerability according
to FAO. This index is decreasing
for
Mexico,
due
to
the
performance of the economy as a
whole.
3,000
ARG
(2.2%)
2,000
1,000
-
1994
1995
Rest of the World
Source: SAGARPA and Secretary of Economics.
1996
1997
1998
1999
Mexico-NAFTA
(Years)
Data shows trade diversion on
the import side due to the NAFTA.
MEXICAN AGRICULTURAL AND AGRI-FOOD TRADE BALANCES
AGRICULTURAL TRADE BALANCE / AGRICULTURAL GDP RATIO
Million dollars
Concept
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
Agricultural Trade Balance
Mexico - World
(1,332.3)
1,176.6
(1,433.0)
(730.7)
(1,134.4)
(977.6)
Agricultural GDP
22,216.4
14,348.3
18,393.4
20,109.5
20,080.2
20,488.5
(6.0)
8.2
(7.8)
(3.6)
(5.6)
(4.8)
Agricultural Balance /
Agricultural GDP (%)
Source: SAGARPA with Secretary of Economics data.
The deficit in agri – food products is equal to 3.6 per cent of agri – food GDP.
AGRICULTURAL TRADE BALANCE / AGRI-FOOD GDP RATIO
Million dollars
Concept
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
Agri-food Trade Balance
Mexico - World
(3,311.5)
533.3
(1,953.6)
(1,311.6)
(1,864.0)
(1,560.9)
Agri-food GDP
41,968.1
28,546.4
35,023.5
39,168.4
39,785.8
43,845.6
(7.9)
1.9
(5.6)
(3.3)
(4.7)
(3.6)
Agri-food Balance /
Agri-food GDP (%)
Source: SAGARPA with Secretary of Economics data.
MEXICAN AGRIFOOD TRADE FLOWS WITH COUNTRIES
THAT HAVE SIGNED A FTA BEFORE 1999
(U.S. Dlls.)
ASERCA
Before Agreement
After Agreement
6,499,468.31
10,544,640.36
62.24
15,262.94
50,327.45
229.74
91.62
615.62
571.92
G3 2/
16,916.45
58,393.59
245.19
Chile 3/
12,027.09
75,845.81
530.62
Nicaragua 4/
16,787.36
25,411.71
51.37
Country/Block
NAFTA 1/
Costa Rica 2/
Bolivia 2/
Fuente: SAGAR with SECOFI data
1/ Before agreement = 1990-1993 average; after agreement = 1994-1998 average
2/ Before agreement= 1990-1994 average; after agreement = 1995-1998 average
3/ Before agreement = 1990-1991 average; after agreement = 1992-1998 average
4/ Before agreement = 1990-1997 average; after agreement = 1998
% Growth
MEXICAN AGRIFOOD TRADE WITH DIFFERENT BLOCKS
ASERCA
 Mexican Agrifood trade is highly concentrated in NAFTA.
 In 1990, Mexico’s agrifood trade with NAFTA countries was 74.6% of
total agrifood trade, and in 1999 it grew to 82.5%.
 Agrifood trade with Europe fell from 12.6% to 6% during the same
period .
1990
3.4 %
1999
10.2 %
9.4 %
12.6 %
74.6 %
1.3 %
6%
82.5 %
TLCAN
EUROPE
Source: SAGAR with SECOFI data.
1/ Include: agriculture livestock and agrifood
MERCOSUR
Rest of the World
NORTH AMERICAN FREE TRADE AGREEMENT (NAFTA)
ASERCA
 From 1988 to 1993, agrifood trade between Mexico and NAFTA countries
grew 43.2%, while from 1993 to 1999 it grew 66.8%.
 Agrifood trade deficit was 2.2 billion dollars, while in 1999 was 1.3 billion
dollars, a decrease of 40.3%.
Agrifood trade Mexico-NAFTA
(Millio dollars)
14,000
AGR
1993/1999
TMAC: 8.8%
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
1990
1991
Source:Secretary of Economics
1992
1993
1994
Exports
1995
1996
1997
1998
Imports
1999
Agrifood
EXP.
10.1 %
Agrifood
Imp.
7.8 %
Agrifood.
Trade.
8.8 %
MEXICAN AGRIFOOD IMPORTS
FROM U.S.A. AND CANADA
ASERCA
 In the last 6 years, an average 66% of our agrifood imports are agriculture
and livestock products, and 34% are processed products.
 During 1993–1999, Mexican agrifood imports increased in average 7.8%,
2.3 points less than agrifood exports.
AGRIFOOD IMPORTS OF MEXICO FROM NAFTA COUNTRIES
(millons of US dlls.)
1993
1999
% AGR
93/99
CONCEPT
% AGR
93/99
AGRIFOOD
IMPORTS
4,492
7,045
7.8
AGRIFOOD
EXPORTS
10.1
AGRIC.
IMPORTS
2,734
4,698
9.4
AGRIC.
EXPORTS
7.1
FOOD
IMPORTS.
1,759
2,347
4.9
FOOD
EXPORTS
17.9
CONCEPT
Source: SAGAR with SICM data
MEXICAN AGRIFOOD EXPORTS TO U.S.A. AND CANADA
ASERCA
Mexican agrifood exports to Canada
Growth 1993 – 1999: 126%
77.07
 From 1993 to 1999, the Mexican
agrifood exports to U.S.A.. grew
77.4%, while to Canada 125.8%
 Mexico
has consolidated its
position as the second supplier
of U.S.A. markets.
Million dollars
80.00
68.96
NAFTA
70.00
61.09
60.00
42.88
50.00
34.12
40.00
43.80
28.98
30.00
20.00
10.00
0.00
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
Mexican agrifood exports to U.S.A.
Growth 1993 – 1999: 77.4%
 The share of Mexican agrifood
NAFTA
5,000
Million dollars
products in total U.S. Imports
grew from 9.1% in 1993, to
11.5% in 1999, only second to
Canada.
5,382
6,000
4,000
3,211
4,790
4,555
5,696
4,933
3,437
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AND
TRADE OUTLOOK
ASERCA
 Total agrifood exports show an annual rate of growth of 10.1% during
1999-2000, while total agrifood imports of 13.7%.
 Agrifood deficit increased from 1,569.4 million dollars in 1999 to 2,035.6
million dollars in 2000.
EXPORT PRODUCTS
WITH SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
1999 - 2000
• Peppers
40.9%
• Onions
17.5%
• Chickpeas
22.2%
• Avocados
25.7%
• Bananas
36.3%
• Bovine live cattle
41.4%
• Pork meat
28.8%
• Honey
37.3%
IMPORT PRODUCTS
WITH SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
1999 - 2000
• Bovine meat
30.2%
• Poultry meat
29.4%
• Raw cotton
41.5%
• Milk powder
26.8%
• Fresh apples
36.2%
PRODUCE EXPORTS FROM MEXICO
TO NAFTA COUNTRIES
ASERCA
 The Mexican produce exports to the United States, have increased 72.9%,
from 1.4 billion dollars in 1993 to 2.4 billion dollars in 1999.
 Exports to Canada increased 70.9% in the same period, from 15.2 to 25.9
million dollars.
 Mexico has increased its participation in U.S. Imports, in some cases in
more than 50.0%
MEXICAN VEGETABLES SHARE IN U.S. IMPORTS
(1999)
96
100
86
90
80
%
71
72
70
MEXICAN FRUITS SHARE IN U.S. IMPORTS (1999)
100
90
80
70
70
60
60
50
% 50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
91
69
76
75
52
0
Tomatoe
Onion
Asparragus Eggplant and Cucunber
cabbage
Watermelon Mango and
guava
Papaya
Melón
Strawberry,
blueberry and
raspberry
THE MAIN MEXICAN AGRIFOOD EXPORTS
TO U.S.A. AND CANADA
ASERCA
 In many products, Mexico has consolidated its position as the most
important supplier of United States markets.
 In 1999, Mexico was the supplier of 221 products of the 2,070 that
conformed the agriculture and livestock United
represents 53.5% more products than in 1993.
PRODUCT
ASPARAGUS
GARLIC
PEPPER
CUCUMBER
TOMATOE
LEMON
GRAPE
AVOCADO
BEER
COCKIES
CANDIES
OILSEEDS
VEGETABLES
Source: SAGAR with USDOC data
Exports growth
1993 – 1999 (%)
709
127
66
69
36
71
169
------233
193
313
106
71
States tariff.
Importance as a U.S.A.
supplier
1993
1999
1
2
1
1
1
1
2
0
2
2
4
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
3
1
1
This