Transcript National Transfer Accounts in Brazil

National Transfer Accounts:
Brazil
Cassio Turra & Bernardo Queiroz
NTA Workshop
Berkeley, January 15, 2005
What have we done?
• Turra (2000) applied Lee’s model to Brazilian
data;
• generated labor income profiles (1979-2003);
• collecting data on government expenditures from
1980 to 2000;
• historical data on school enrollment and
percentage of population retired from 1960 to
2000;
DATA
• Census 1960 - 2000 from IPUMS;
• PNAD (Household Survey) 1979-2003: labor
income profiles, labor force participation, some
info on transfers, household composition;
• POF and PPV (Consumer Expenditure Survey):
1973, 1986, 1996, 2002;
• Administrative data (Social Security
Administration, Ministry of Education, etc.)
Social Expenditures
Government Social Expenditures, Brazil, 1980 - 2003 (as % of GDP)
8.00
7.00
6.00
% GDP
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
Year
Health
Education
SS Private Workers
SS Civil Servants
00
01
02
03
Social Expenditures in Brazil (%GNP)
9%
8%
7%
Social Security
6%
5%
4%
Health
3%
Education
2%
1%
0%
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
Social Security Expenditures and
Retirement in Brazil
Brief History of the Pension System
• 1988: last major reform. Most of the measures
made system more generous than before: index
pension benefits to minimum wage, incorporate
rural workers;
• 1990’s: reforms aim to increase revenues.
Demographic and actuarial side of pension system
became central part of the debate;
• 1998: new methodology to compute pension
benefits based on the Swedish Notional Defined
Benefit Program (transition period is very long).
Brief History of the Pension System
• 1988: last major reform. Most of the measures
made system more generous than before: index
pension benefits to minimum wage, incorporate
rural workers;
• 1990’s: reforms aim to increase revenues.
Demographic and actuarial side of pension system
became central part of the debate;
• 1998: new methodology to compute pension
benefits based on the Swedish Notional Defined
Benefit Program (transition period is very long).
Public Expenditures on Social Security - Civil Servants by government level (% of total)
1.00
0.90
0.80
0.70
%
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
Year
Federal
States
Local
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
Percentage of Individuals Receiving Retirement and Survivor Pension Benefits by age and
both sexes, Brazil, 1960 - 1991
1.000
0.900
0.800
0.700
0.600
1970
0.500
1980
1991
0.400
0.300
0.200
0.100
age
78
75
72
69
66
63
60
57
54
51
48
45
42
39
36
33
30
27
24
21
18
15
12
9
6
3
0.000
0
%
1960
Retirees, Workers Enrolled, Labor Force and
Retirees/Enrolled Ratio
80000000
35
70000000
30
25
20
40000000
15
30000000
10
20000000
Year
Pensioners
Payers
Urban Labor Force
Ratio
2001
1998
1995
1992
1989
1986
1983
1980
1977
1974
1971
1968
1965
1962
1959
1956
1953
1950
1947
1944
1941
1938
1935
0
1932
0
1929
5
1926
10000000
Ratio
50000000
1923
Population
60000000
Average Retirement Ages, Males, 1950-2000
65
62
Age
60.17
58.90
59.04
58.83
59
58.83
57.83
56
1950
1960
1970
1980
Year
1990
2000
Mean Pension Benefits and Income
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
Mean Pension
Per Capita Income
Bottom 10%
Top 10%
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
0
Expenditures on Education
Public Expendiures on Education by government level, Brazil, 1980-2000 (% of total)
0.60
0.50
% of total
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
Year
Federal
States
Local
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
School Enrollment by age and both sexes, Brazil, 1960-2000
1.000
0.900
0.800
0.700
0.600
1960
1980
1991
2000
0.400
0.300
0.200
0.100
age
64
62
60
58
56
54
52
50
48
46
44
42
40
38
36
34
32
30
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0.000
0
%
1970
0.500
Health Expenditures
Public Expenditures on Health, by government level (% of GDP)
3.50
3.00
2.50
%
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
year
Federal
State
Local
Total
89
90
91
92
Next Steps (short term)
• Estimate private consumption in 1973, 1986, and
2003;
• estimate public transfer profiles to education and
social security based on information collected;
• continue to collect data on government
expenditures.
Some Questions
• How to create age profile for expenditures on
health?;
• What should we include on education
expenditures?
• How do we define the household head when not
defined by the survey?