Transcript Forecasting Greenhouse Gases: Ireland

Mid-Term Evaluation of NDP/CSF:
Macro and Micro Evaluation
The Economic and Social Research Institute
www.esri.ie
Introduction
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Medium-Term Prospects
Micro-economic studies
Macro-economic framework
• Implications
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Horizontal Principles
Supplementary Measures
Evaluation Process
Macro-Economic Background
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Potential Growth Rate
• Infrastructural Deficit
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Inflation
• Modelling Housing Market
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Changing Sectoral Structure
Strategy Broadly Correct
Microeconomics:Infrastructure
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International experience
Model Impact of roads
Model Impact of sanitary services
Returns to roads
• Low in 1980s
• Very high 2000
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Impacts on productivity
Microeconomics: Human Capital
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Throughput of schemes
Transforms from low to high skilled
• Reduces supply of low skilled
• Increases supply of skilled
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Participation effect
Competitiveness effect
Productivity effect
Skilled Labour Supply
S1L
W
S2L
W1
D2L
D1L
L1
L2
L
Unskilled Labour
W
W2
S2L
S1L
DL
S=W
D2L
L2
L1
U
L
Returns to Education
% premium on primary education only
100%
80%
60%
1987
1994
2000
40%
20%
0%
Junior
Leaving
Diploma
University
Implications
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Returns on Investment
• High at this point in time, c. 14%
• Constraint on action – inflation
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Model of Housing market
• Inflationary consequences of investment
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Medium-term sectoral prospects
• Good – services, also high tech.
• Poor – agriculture, fishing, tourism,
building
NDP Effects on GNP
8
7
6
4
3
2
1
20
10
20
08
20
06
20
04
20
02
0
20
00
%
5
Demand Only
Total
Investment Criteria
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Rely on Evaluations of OPs
Market Failure?
Priority and Timing
• Inflation
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Management of Infrastructure
• Getting the “best” out of it
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Competition – reveals information
The Menu
• Economists and spending money
“Envelope” to 2006
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Existing Huge Effort
• Overall Unchanged “volume” to 2006
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High Priority
• Economic and Social Infrastructure
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Regional – Special Funding for NSS
Human Resources
• broadly unchanged priority
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Productive Sector
• Reduced Priority
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20
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Investment, share of GDP 2001
30
25
%
20
15
Public Investment, % of GDP
Portugal
Poland
Netherlands
United Kingdom
Ireland 2002
France
Finland
Spain
Denmark
Germany
Belgium
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Examples
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Social housing
• Constrained by inflation
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Sectoral Prospetcs
• Agriculture, Fishing, Tourism, Building
• Affects training, R&D
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Education and health
Example - Broadband
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Where is the market failure?
Regulatory Failure
Possible Regional Issues
Taking the horse to water
Horizontal Issues
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Horizontal Principles
• Social inclusion, environment, equality,
rural development, regional balance,
North-South
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Proofing? Purpose :
• Sensitising policy makers
• Policy Evaluation
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Better:
• Targeted policy impact assessment
Supplementary Measures
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Appropriate Pricing
• Water
• Waste
• Tolling
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Management of Housing Market
Planning
PPPs
Management Issues
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Management
• under resourced
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Project Selection
• No change without evaluation
Evaluation Process
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Terms of reference
• All human life is there
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Length of reports v readability
• Best the enemy of the good
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Do more in house – less reliance on
consultants
Importance of independence
Priorities & Lessons
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Roads
Urban Public Transport
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Management of Infrastructure
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• Maximise Usage
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Appropriate pricing
No change without evaluation