Transcript New method
National Bureau of Statistics of PRC Improvements on the Issues of 12th Workshop: Finance, Health, Education and Owner Occupied Dwelling Estimation LU Feng Department of National Accounts, NBS 30 Nov., 2009 Haikou, China Finance: Banking Industry 1. FISIM Estimation From 2008, the NBS begins to use reference rate approach to calculate the FISIM, which is an important improvement in the GDP estimation of China. Finance: Banking Industry 1. FISIM Estimation Old method: FISIM = (Loan interest revenue - Deposit interest expense) +(Revenue from transactions with financial institutions - Expense from transactions with financial institutions) + Investment revenue + Rental revenue Finance: Banking Industry 1. FISIM estimation New method: FISIM for the depositors = Annual average deposits of financial institutions × Reference rate – Actual interest payment of deposits FISIM for the borrowers = Actual interest income of loans – Annual average loans of financial institutions ×Reference rate Finance: Banking Industry 1. FISIM estimation New method: Total FISIM = FISIM for the depositors + FISIM for the borrowers Where, Reference rate = (Deposit rate + Loan rate) ÷ 2 Finance: Banking Industry 2. The central bank of China – the People’s Bank of China now is treated as enterprise institution in GDP estimation. Before, it was treated as government institution. Finance: Securities Industry 1. Real VAD Estimation The real value-added estimation of securities now uses volume extrapolation approach instead of single deflation approach. Finance: Securities Industry 1. Real VAD Estimation Old method: Real VAD = Nominal VAD / Deflator where the deflator is equal to the weighted average of CPI and IPI (Investment Price Index). Finance: Securities Industry 1. Real VAD Estimation New method: Real VAD = Real VAD of last year × Stock transaction volume index Finance: Securities Industry 2. Nominal VAD is subdivided into more detailed level to calculate. According to the Second Economic Census’s data, value added of securities is subdivided into three parts, which are securities, fund and futures. Finance: Securities Industry 3. The treatment of stamp duty on securities transactions is improved. Now only stamp duty of securities transactions paid by agencies is treated as production tax of securities, not including stamp duty on securities transactions paid by individuals. Finance: Insurance Industry Real VAD Estimation Real VAD estimation still uses the single deflation method, but the deflator is improved. Finance: Insurance Industry Real VAD Estimation Old method: Deflator = Weighted average of CPI and IPI New method: Deflator = (Investment revenue / Insurance output) × Deflator of securities + [(Insurance output － Investment revenue) ÷ Insurance output] × Weighted average of CPI and IPI Health Real VAD Estimation Real VAD estimation still uses the single deflation method, but the deflator is improved. Health Real VAD Estimation In the old method, the deflator was the health care and personal articles price index, while in the new method the deflator is the health care price index. Education Real VAD Estimation As education includes both market activities and nonmarket activities, now we use the average of deflation method result and quantity extrapolation method result as the real VAD result of education. Education Real VAD Estimation Old method: Real VAD = Nominal VAD / Education price index Education Real VAD Estimation New method: Real VAD = (Real VAD_Def + Real VAD_Exa) / 2 Where, Real VAD_Def = Nominal VAD / Education price index Real VAD_Exa = Real VAD of last year × employee number index Owner Occupied Dwelling Real VAD Estimation The real value-added estimation of Owner Occupied Dwelling now uses volume extrapolation approach instead of single deflation approach. Owner Occupied Dwelling Real VAD Estimation Old method: Real VAD = Nominal VAD / Deflator where the deflator is the renting price index of houses. New method: Real VAD = Real VAD of last year × Floor space of residents index Thank you for your attention!