Transcript DPG Joint program document

DPG : presentation of a draft
Joint Program Document
DPG, 5 September 2006
Outline
• Brief overview of preliminary draft
• MTEF projections & lead in to 07/08 cycle
• Next steps, Work program for September
Joint program document: current
status
• Revised version of Part 2, joint analysis
• Part 3 – first draft on agreed outline
• Current part 3 draft – includes sections in ‘issues
mode’ rather than final draft, especially where
DPG/DP WG guidance needed
• Focus for DPG discussion :
– proposed DPG commitments
– Sept work program for moving from issues to final
draft
Joint drafting process
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Part II:
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12 DPs (40+ people) in drafting team
DPG WGs worked on text
2 rounds of editing
Still collecting comments - DPs and public hearing (DPG Website)
Part III:
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6 DPs in drafting team
Guided by Steering Group (10 DPs) - half a dozen meetings June-August
Document based on DP MTEF projections
DP MTEF issues group cracked numbers....
GoT/DPG/CSO MTEF Workshop on 25 July
First draft presented at September DPG
DPG WGs to work on document during September
Agreement with GoT and CSO on consultation process
Part 3 outline
• Intro, context, lessons learnt
• Managing external finance
• Issues for developing aid strategy: MTEF
projections, scaling up, consistency with
MKUKUTA,JAST
• Response to MKUKUTA cluster strategies
• M&E/Results matrix
• Risk analysis
• Other JAST issues
Managing external finance
Institutional challenges of high levels of aid
• Vision of DP role as catalyst for strengthening
domestic accountability
• Key role of sector reviews in realising this
vision,balancing national planning and budget
role, domestic accountability and
monitoring/dialogue for DPs
• Recognising the responsibilities of high aid
dependence, DPs as integrated particpants in
budget process
Key changes in DP input to
planning/budget cycle
PRESENT
Got passive recipient of
individual agency
projections
FUTURE
GoT actively assesses
projections,leads
dialogue
One off DP input
Iterative, interactive
Exclusively bilateral
DPG role in coordination
quality review,
facilitating adjustment
Follow up for annual budget cycle
Current work on
draft part 3, MTEF
Projections
Finalise joint program
document (Parts 2+3)
Enhanced input to
07/08 Budget
Guidelines/MTEF
Agree with GoT
improved process for
future annual budget
cycle
Post workshop issues
• Scaling up : scenario analysis around
alternative aid futures
• Consistency with MKUKUTA – background
work for follow up in revision of cluster text
• Consistency with JAS: key indications one
year ahead – number of projects
increasing 25%, average project size falls
by 20%, slight fall in % budget support
Cluster programs
• Current text only an initial frame for
detailed redrafting from DP working
groups
• Aim for one page cluster summaries,
developed in parallel with results matrix
• Primary focus: Cluster priorities,MKUKUTA
alignment, financing strategy, development
of dialogue/sector reviews
M&E, Results matrix
• Linking DP inputs (MTEF projections) to
MKUKUTA outcomes (MKUKUTA indicators)
with intermediate results drawn in summary from
MKUKUTA
• Matrix in text includes indicators only at this
stage
• Draft versions with MTEF inputs and (tentative)
worked example for education to follow
• Need to define steps for completing the matrix,
with guidance from DP working groups
Risk
• Risk matrix distributed in July, several
rounds of comment/discussion
• Early decision that analysis focus on joint
view of risk and mitigating measures
• Views welcome on expanding the
coverage to collective response
Other JAST issues
• Joint program document is an opportunity
to reflect joint commitment on other JAST
objectives (some proposals in section 8)
• Need to liaise with GoT on how this fits
with work program for JAST working group
Total External Financing (actual+projections)
14.0
12.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
Actual Donor Support
MTEF Projection 07
MTEF Projection 06
MTEF Projection 05
MTEF Projection 04
MTEF Projection 03
20
09
/1
0
20
08
/0
9
20
07
/0
8
20
06
/0
7
20
05
/0
6
20
04
/0
5
20
03
/0
4
20
02
/0
3
20
01
/0
2
20
00
/0
1
0.0
19
99
/0
0
% of GDP
10.0
DPs MTEF Projections
2500
2000
Unallocated
(3 agencies)
Million USD
Pipeline/indicative
(2 agencies)
1500
1000
Commitment
(18 agencies)
500
0
2006/07
2007/08
Commitment (18 agencies)
2008/09
Pipeline/indicative (2 agencies)
2009/10
Unallocated (3 agencies)
Figure ?: Average Forecast Error
(as a % of GDP)
Domestic Revenue
DPs Total Support
DPs Other Support
DPs Budget Support
0
1
2
3
4
5
% of GDP
Year 3
Year 2
Year 1
6
Figure ?: Average Forecast Error
(in percent)
Domestic Revenue
DPs Total Support
DPs Other Support
DPs Budget Support
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Percent
Year 3
Year 2
Year 1
70
80
90
Improving DP projections : some
options
• Individual agencies prepare comprehensive
MTEF projections annually (commitments,
pipeline + unallocated)
• DPG takes more collective responsibility for
quality of projections (ex ante), and realisation
(ex post)
• Reserve funds set aside to assure stable
medium term flows(DP or GoT)
• Recommendation : pursue all three
approaches, option 1 to be included in next GoT
MTEF call, PER macro group to work on
detailed proposals on 2 and 3
Work program for sector working
groups
• Review sector MTEF projections – identify gaps,
encourage WG members to improve coverage
(commitment/pipeline)
• Review Joint program doc:
– Proposed drafting revisions for cluster text, covering:
sector priorities, developments in external financing,
status of sector review/policy dialogue institutions
– Results matrix : review indicators (col 1), review DP
inputs and summarise (col 3), insert summary of
strategies/intermediate results (col 2)
– comments on other sections
A proposal for work on the results
matrix
• DP working groups identify representatives for
cluster level meetings next week
• Half day meeting for each cluster, to discuss
draft cluster matrix, propose draft for DP working
group comment
• WB can offer two specialists to (i) facilitate
cluster meetings (ii) support DP working groups
as required (iii) comment on drafts as required
Finalising the joint program doc
• First draft with GoT, comments expected
mid Sept, including views on any broader
consultation process required
• Similar for civil society
• Still aiming for final draft end Sept/next
DPG
• DP views on facilitating HQ engagement/
comment/agreement on final draft ?