Transcript Divided Korea - Porterville College

Divided Korea:
Genesis of a Nuclear Flashpoint
Whence the “Axis of Evil?”
Two Koreas
Today
 South Korea
 North Korea
 GDP Per Capita
$20,400
 Military Expenses
$21.06 billion
 Military as share of
GDP 2.6%
 Population 48,846,823
 Infant mortality
6.16 deaths/1,000 live
births
 GDP Per Capita
$1,800
 Military Expenses
$5.21 Billion
 Military as share of
GDP 31%
 Population 23,113,019
 Infant Mortality
23.29 deaths/1,000 live
births
Geography
Geography
 Division roughly
along the 38th
Parallel
 North Korea:
Communist, antiAmerican
 South Korea:
Capitalist, proAmerican
Korean History
 1910 Japanese Annexation
 Western and US Complicity
 Taft-Katsura Agreement
 Domestic Independence Movements
 March 1st Movement, 1919
 Independence Movements in Exile
 US Based: Syngman Rhee
 China and Soviet Based: Kim Il Sung
Korean History
 Repression under Japan
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Japanese Language
Japanese Names
Japanese Education
Forced labor and military service,
“Comfort Women”
WW II in Korean History
 World War II
 Pearl Harbor
 US Plan: Germany first, then
Japan
WW II in Korean History
 Cairo Conference: 1943
 Korea to be occupied
 Korean Independence “in due
time”
WW II in Korean History
 Yalta Conference:
 Feb. 4—11, 1945
 USSR to join war on Japan 3 months after
German surrender
 USSR to participate in occupation of Korea
 Potsdam Conference
 July 17—Aug. 2, 1945
 Yalta Conference arrangements for Korea
Confirmed
WW II in Korean History
 August 6, 1945, Atom bomb on Hiroshima
 August 8, 1945, Russians enter the war
against Japan, fulfilling their Yalta Conference
agreement
 August 9, 1945, Atom bomb on Nagasaki
 August 10/11, 1945 (about midnight), young
colonels, Dean Rusk and Charles Bonesteel,
under orders from Gen. McArthur, draw a
division line at the 38th parallel, keeping the
capital city, Seoul, in the American area.
 August 15, 1945, Japan Surrenders.
Cold War History: Korea
 USA/USSR tensions emerge almost at
once
 USA envisions capitalist democracy
 USSR envisions communist government
South Korean History
 October, 1945
 Syngman Rhee
returned to South
Korea from the US
 Welcomed as a
nationalist
resistance leader
by US leadership.
North Korean History
 October, 1945
 Kim Il Sung
returns to North
Korea from
Manchuria
 Welcomed by
Soviets as a
nationalist
resistance leader
Cold War History: US
 Containment
1947
 George Kennan
writes Mr. X article
 Coins term and
policy of
Containment
Two Koreas
 Emerging Cold War conflict between USA
and USSR
 Joint elections impractical
 Two separate Korean Governments
established
 1948 “Elections” in both North and South
Korea
Two Koreas
 Republic of Korea
(South)
 Syngman Rhee’s
Government 19481960
 Pro-American
 Capitalist
 Anti-communist
 Pro Christian
 Authoritarian
 Corrupt
 Inept
 Democratic
People’s Republic
of Korea (North)
 Kim Il Sung’s
Government 19481994
 Pro-Soviet / ProChinese
 Anti-American
 Communist
 Becomes anti-religion
 Authoritarian
 Isolationist
Korean War
 January 12, 1950
 United States Secretary of
State Dean Acheson
 US Press Club: RE:
America's Pacific defense
perimeter
 Implies that the U.S. might
not fight over Korea
 This omission encouraged
the North and the Soviets
Korean War
 War begins June 25, 1950: North Korea
Invades
 Incheon landing, September 15 September 28, 1950
 Chinese entry, October, 1950
 January 4, 1951, Communist Chinese and
North Korean forces recapture Seoul.
 MacArthur was removed from command by
President Truman on April 11, 1951.
 Stalemate, July, 1951
Korean Division
 Originally 38th
parallel
 Post Korean
War: Red line
called the DMZ
Korean War Ends
 Cease Fire July 27, 1953
 Neither Korea Signed Armistice
 State of war continues
 Both Koreas considered themeslves
the only legitimate authority
 Both Koreas had aurhoritarian
dictatorships at least through 1987
Post Korean War History
 South Korea: 40,000 US troops
remain to guard South Korea
 US supports pro American authoritarian
regimes
 North Korea: Chinese troops leave
 North argues that South Korea is an
occupied country, not independent
 North sees US troops as a threat
South Korean History
 South Korea
 Corruption, incompetence, and
cheating on elections leads to
Syngman Rhee’s departure 1960
 Military Coup brings Military to power
in South Korea
South Korean History
 Park Chung Hee
leads South Korea
Military Dictator
Harsh discipline
Anti-communist
Economic
development for
national security
 Fantastic economic
growth
 Terrible human
rights
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North Korean History
 Kim Il Sung in North
Korea
 Juche Ideology
 National
independence
 Aligned with USSR and
China
 Plays them off against
each other until 1991
 Standard pattern of
brinksmanship to get
what he wants
North Korea
 North Korea sees 40,000 US troops on its
southern border as a major threat
 South Korea is simply a colony of the US.
 NO need to work with SK, it is the US that
matters.
 Develops Juche ideology of independence
 Economic independence
 Military independence
 Focus on People’s needs
 In reality, Juche is a failure both in independence
and in People’s needs.
North Korea
 Authoritarian
 Anti religious persecution
 Inefficient production, very little
economic growth
 Becomes progressively less secure as
South Korea outgrows the North
North Korea
 Cold War ends
 Communist Block Collapses 1991
 North Korea can’t play China and Russia
against each other
 South Korean President Roh Tae Woo
(1988-1993) launches “Norde Politic”
drive and normalizes relations with
China and Russia, Isolating North Korea
Northern Crisis
 Isolated North Korea has difficulty
feeding its population
Bad weather
Communist incentive structure
Poor distribution
No more cheap resources from China and
Russia
 25-30% of GDP spent on military
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Nuclear Crisis
 North Korea launches Nuclear program, 1990
 1994: NK Withdraws from membership with
International Atomic Energy Agency
 Jimmy Carter visits Korea representing Clinton
Administration
 1994 Agreed Framework negotiated
 N. Korea gives up nuclear weapons for energy
support
 Korean Economic Development Organization
(KEDO) formed to help N. Korean energy
development.
Relevant History
 Kim Il Sung dies in 1994
 Kim Jong Il succeeds his
father and continues his
father’s government patterns
 US and most experts
expected North Korea to
collapse under economic
strains and leadership
transition.
Nuclear Crisis
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1994 Agreed Framework
 DPRK's nuclear power plants would
be replaced with light water reactor
(LWR) power plants by a target
date of 2003.
 Oil for heating and electricity
production would be provided while
DPRK's reactors were shut down,
until completion of the first LWR
power unit.
Nuclear Crisis

1994 Agreed Framework
 The two sides would move toward full
normalization of political and economic
relations.
 The U.S. would provide formal assurances to
the DPRK, against the threat or use of nuclear
weapons by the U.S.
 The DPRK would take steps to implement the
Korean Peninsula Denuclearization
Declaration.
Nuclear Crisis

1994 Agreed Framework
 The DPRK would remain a party to the
Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty.
 IAEA ad hoc and routine inspections would
resume for facilities not subject to the freeze.
 Existing spent nuclear fuel stocks would be
stored and ultimately disposed of without
reprocessing in the DPRK.
 DPRK would come into full compliance with its
safeguards agreement with the IAEA
Nuclear Crisis
 US compliance with Agreed
Framework is spotty
 North Korea doesn’t get
adequate energy
 NK continues pattern of
“brinksmanship” to improve
their position
South Korean Response
 President Kim Dae
Jung (1998-2003)
Initiates “Sunshine
Policy”
 Attempts for the
first time to engage
NK with positive
incentives
 Negotiates some
trade and family
exchanges
Axis of Evil and
Bush Doctrine
 2002 State of the Union President
Bush includes North Korea in “Axis
of Evil” with Iraq and Iran
 Iraq Invasion
 President Bush declares the “Bush
Doctrine” of preemptive war
 US invades Iraq
North Korean Reaction
 2003 Withdraw from Nuclear
Non-proliferation Treaty
 Declares NK a nuclear power
 Insists on addressing only US,
not 6-party talks
South Korean Response
 President Roh Moo
Hyun (2003--)
Continues
Sunshine policy
 Disagrees with
Bush administration
on hard line
approach
Conclusions
 North Korea’s Nuclear threat derives
from North Korean perception of
insecurity
 Korea’s division created that insecurity
 North Korea sees US as the core threat
(40,000 US troops aimed at them)
 Bush Doctrine and US behavior since
2001 reinforces perception of threat
Conclusions
 North Korean leadership is NOT crazy
nor suicidal
 North Korea uses aggressive
negotiating tactics to achieve its ends
 North Korea is unlikely to USE nuclear
weapons
 Panic or over-reaction to North Korean
provocations are counterproductive