Transcript S 1

The Modern Approach to
Aggregate Demand
The Capital Market and the
IS Curve
Learning Objectives
• Understand the relationship between saving and
interest rates and income.
• Understand the relationship between interest rates
and investment
• Learn how to use the saving function and the
investment function to graphically derive the IS
curve.
• Understand how government spending, taxes, and
expectations about future rates of return and
productivity shift the IS curve.
Savings, Interest Rates, and Income
• Unlike the classical model, in the Keynesian
model there is no unique level of income.
– Income may be at its natural rate, above the
natural rate, or below the natural rate.
– Because income fluctuates, individuals’
willingness to save also changes.
– Therefore, saving is assumed to be determined
by both interest rates and income.
Savings, Interest Rates, and Income
– When income is high, the supply of savings to the
capital market is larger because people are better able to
save more.
– As a consequence, firms can attract the funds they need
at lower rates of interest.
– On the other hand, when income is low, the supply of
savings to the capital market is smaller since people are
less able to save.
– As a consequence, when firms compete for the smaller
pool of savings, interest rates are driven up.
The IS Schedule
• The IS schedule plots every income and
nominal interest rate (Y, i) combination that
results in equilibrium in the capital market.
– The IS schedule is an equilibrium schedule.
• At every point on an IS schedule, investment just
equals saving.
Saving and Investment: IS Model
• Definitions:
– Saving is a function of the real interest rate and
income.
• S(Y, i – /\PE/P)
– Investment is a function of the real interest rate.
• I(i – /\PE/P)
IS Derivation: Investment and
Saving
A
B
i
i
S1(Y1)
S*(Y*)
i1
i*
i2
1
i1
S2(Y2)
2
1
2
i*
i2
3
3
I
0
IS
S,I
0
Y1
Y*
Y2
Y
Investment, Saving and IS
• Panel A represents equilibrium in the capital
market for three different levels of income,
where Y1< Y* < Y2.
– When income equals Y1, saving is S1.
– When income equals Y*, saving is S
– When income equals Y2, saving is S2.
Investment, Saving and IS
• Panel B shows the IS curve.
– Point 1 represents equilibrium in the capital
market when income is Y1 and the interest rate
is i1.
– Point 2 represents equilibrium in the capital
market when income is Y* and the interest rate
is i*.
– Point 3 represents equilibrium in the capital
market when income is Y2 and the interest rate
is i2.
Investment, Saving and IS
• At every point on the IS curve, the quantity of
investment demanded just equals the quantity of
saving supplied.
– For higher levels of income, the equilibrium rate of
interest is lower because households are willing to save
more at every value of the interest rate.
– For lower levels of income, the equilibrium rate of
interest is higher because households are less willing to
save at every value of the interest rate.
Shifting the IS Curve
• Several exogenous variables affect the economy
through their effect on the IS curve.
• They include:
–
–
–
–
–
–
Government spending
Taxes
Changes in wealth
Expectations about future productivity
Expectations about future rates of return
Expectations about future income.
Government in the IS Model
• Government taxing and spending activities
affect interest rates and income.
• To introduce the government into the model, we
redefine the saving and investment functions:
– Total Borrowing = I(i – /\PE/P) + D, where
(i – /\PE/P) is the real rate of interest and D is the
government’s budget deficit.
– Saving = S(Y, T – TR,(i – /\PE/P)), where (T – TR)
is net taxes.
Government Spending
• Assumptions:
– Government goods and services are not
substitutes for consumption goods and services.
• Private saving is unaffected by government
spending.
– Saving is determined by Y*, the natural rate of
output.
– Saving does not depend on net taxes.
Government Spending and the IS
Curve
B
A
i
i
S*
2
i*2
i*1
2
1
1
I+D2
IS2
IS1
I+D1
0
S,I
0
Y*
Y
Government Spending
• Panel A
– Saving just equals total borrowing at the
equilibrium rate of interest i1.
– The increase in government spending causes
the deficit to increase, which other things
remaining the same, causes total borrowing to
shift to the right.
– The equilibrium rate of interest rises to i2.
Government Spending
• Panel B
– The increase in total borrowing causes the IS
curve to shift to the right.
– The equilibrium rate of interest rises to i*2.
Taxes and the IS Curve
• Assumptions:
– Taxes are levied as a lump sum on households
and firms.
– For simplicity, we assume there is no income
tax. This permits us to disregard the effects of
taxes on labor supply.
Taxes and the IS Curve
• Assumptions:
– Net taxes affect saving only through their effect
on disposable income.
– Government spending does not change.
– Saving is determined by Y*, the natural rate of
output.
Taxes and the IS Curve
B
A
i
i
S*2
S*1
i*1
i*2
1
1
2
2
I+D1
IS1
IS2
I+D2
0
S,I
0
Y*
Y
Taxes and the IS Curve
• Panel A
– Other things remaining the same,an increase in
taxes reduces the government deficit from D1 to
D2, causing the I + D1 line to shift left to I + D2.
– As the deficit falls, competition for available
savings decreases, and other things remaining
the same, the interest rate falls below i*2.
Taxes and the IS Curve
• Panel A
– Other things, however, do not remain the same.
– The increase in taxes also decreases disposable
income which reduces savings, causing the
savings curve to shift to the left from S*1to S*2.
– The net effect is to reduce the equilibrium
interest rate from i*1 to i*2.
– Note that an increase in taxes does not drive
interest rates as low as a decrease in spending.
Taxes and the IS Curve
• Panel B
– The increase in taxes causes the IS curve to
shift to the left.
– The equilibrium rate of interest falls to i*2.
Investment and the IS Curve
• Assumptions
– Saving is determined by Y*, the natural rate of
output.
– Increases in technology increase firm
profitability and, thus, encourage investment
spending.
– Changes in the expected level of future
inflation lower the expected real cost of
borrowing.
Investment and the IS Curve
B
A
i
i
S*
2
i*2
i*1
2
1
1
I2+D
IS2
IS1
I1+D
0
S,I
0
Y*
Y
Investment and the IS Curve
• Panel A
– An increase in technology or an increase in
future expected inflation increases current
investment spending, causing the I+D line to
shift to the right.
– As investment increases, firms compete harder
for the available savings and push up the
interest rate from i*1 to i*2.
Investment and the IS Curve
• Panel B
– The increase in total borrowing causes the IS
curve to shift to the right.
– The equilibrium rate of interest rises to i*2.
Farmer on Investment
• “Notice how investment has increased in the 1990s. If
investment crashes again, as it did in 1974 and 1979, then
the economy will probably fall into another recession.”
• “Some economists argue that the investment boom of the
1990s represents investment in new technology that will
result in large future increases in GDP. These increases are
in anticipation of the fruits of new technologies, such as
the Internet. Other economists think that this investment
boom may be partly a result of mistaken beliefs and that
some investors are over-optimistic about the likely payoff
of the new technologies.” (Farmer, p. 257, 1999).
Consumption and the IS Curve
• Definitions:
• S = (Y– (T – TR)) – C
• C = (Y– (T – TR)) – S
• Assumptions:
• Saving and consumption are determined by Y*,
the natural rate of output.
• Consumption and saving change if there is a
change in wealth.
Consumption and the Wealth Effect
B
A
i
i
S*2
S*1
i*2
i*1
2
2
1
1
IS2
IS1
I+D1
0
S,I
0
Y*
Y
Consumption and the Wealth Effect
• Panel A
– An increase in consumption associated with an
increase in wealth generally decreases saving,
resulting in a leftward shift of the saving line.
– The equilibrium rate of interest rises.
• Panel B
– The IS curve shifts to the right.
– The equilibrium rate of interest rises.
Interest Rates
• Definitions:
– Ex ante real interest rate:
• The real interest rate that people expect.
• rE = i – /\PE/P
– Ex post real interest rate:
• The real interest rate that actually occurs.
• r = i – /\P/P
Expected Inflation and Interest Rates
i
S2
S1
i*2
(/\PE/P2-/\PE/P1)
i*1
I2
I1
0
S,I
When expected inflation increases
from /\PE/P1 to /\PE/P2, the
interest rate that equates saving
and investment rises from i*1 to
i*2.
The increase in the interest rate
is exactly equal to the increase in
expected inflation.
Saving and investment totals do
not change.
A
B
i
i
S*
IS1
I1+D
0
S,I
0
Y
A
B
i
i
S*
IS1
I+D
0
S,I
0
Y
A
B
i
i
S*
IS1
I+D
0
S,I
0
Y