Transcript World Trade Organization - un

THE WORKSHOP FOR THE NATIONAL FOCAL POINTS ON
THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE BRUSSELS
PROGRAMME OF ACTION FOR THE LEAST DEVELOPED
COUNTRIES
New York
17 – 21 May 2004,
Role of Agriculture in the Development of LDCs
Harmon C. Thomas
Chief
Commodity Policy and Projections Service
Commodities and Trade Division
FAO, Rome
Outline of the Presentation
I.
Development challenges facing LDCs and
the role of the agricultural sector
II. FAO approach to the implementation of the
BPoA
I.
Development challenges facing LDCs and
the role of the agricultural sector
• Challenges:
-
reducing poverty; and
enhancing food security
Extent of poverty: proportion of the poor in total population
(Select LDCs)
Zambia
Madagascar
Mozambique
Malawi
Gambia
Chad
Mali
Niger
Eritrea
Rwanda
Bangladesh
Mauritania
Burkina Faso
Djibouti
Ethiopia
Uganda
Nepal
Yemen
Guinea
Lao PDR
Cambodia
Tanzania
Senegal
Benin
0
10
20
30
40
Percent
Source: World Bank , World Development Indicators 2003
50
60
70
80
Extent of food insecurity: percentage of population
undernourished, 1998-2000 (available data for 36 LDCs)
Above 70%
30 – 49%
10 -29%
DR of Congo
Somalia
Afghanistan
Burundi
Sierra Leone
Tanzania
Central Africa R
Ethiopia
Madagascar
Rwanda
Liberia
Cambodia
Niger
Bangladesh
Malawi
Yemen
Chad
Guinea
Lesotho
Senegal
Lao
Burkina Faso
Togo
Gambia
Sudan
Uganda
Mali
Nepal
Benin
Mauritania
50 – 69 %
Eritrea
Mozambique
Angola
Haiti
Zambia
Below 10%
Myanmar
Source: FAO, SOFI 2002
I.
Development challenges and the
agricultural sector
• Importance of the agricultural sector in
LDCs
• Why is the agricultural potential in LDCs
underexploited?
1. Importance of Agriculture in LDCs
- Proportion of population dependent on
agricultural activities
- Share of agriculture in GDP
- Share of agriculture in exports
- Agricultural potential
The rural sector: population size, 2001
Country
Rural pop. as % of
total pop.
Total pop (million)
LDCs Total
74
684.3
Rwanda
94
8.0
Bhutan
93
2.1
Burundi
91
6.4
Nepal
88
24.1
Uganda
85
24.2
Malawi
85
11.6
Ethiopia
84
67.3
Burkina Faso
83
12.3
Cambodia
82
13.5
Eritrea
81
3.9
Laos
80
5.4
.
.
.
.
.
.
Share of population dependent on agriculture for livelihood
(frequency distribution of LDCs)
Number of countries
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
20 - 39%
50 - 69%
Above 70%
Agricultural population as percentage of total population
Share of agriculture in GDP
(frequency distribution of 42 LDCs)
Share of Agricultural GDP in Total GDP (% )
Number of countries
20
16
12
8
4
0
below 15
15-24
25-39
percent
below 15
4
40 and
above
Share of agricultural products in total merchandise exports
(frequency distribution of LDCs)
Number of countries
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Less than 5
5-25
25-50
Greater than 50
Share of single agricultural commodity in total merchandise exports
(frequency distribution of LDCs)
Above 40%
10 – 19%
Below 10%
Burundi
Sao Tome & Principe
Ethiopia
Malawi
Guinea-Bissau
Rwanda
Vanuatu
Kiribati
Djibouti
Tanzania, United Rep. of
Afghanistan
Myanmar
Sudan
Madagascar
Central African Rep.
Congo, Dem. Rep. of
Liberia
Niger
Haiti
Mozambique
Nepal
Bhutan
Eritrea
Zambia
Lao PDR
Mauritania
Guinea
Senegal
Bangladesh
Equatorial Guinea
Lesotho
Zambia
Cape Verde
20 – 39 %
Burkina Faso
Chad
Comoros
Benin
Mali
Somalia
Togo
Gambia
Source: FAO (2003)
Agricultural potential (35 LDCs)
Arable land in
use as % of
potential
Number of
countries
5 – 20%
13
Congo DRC; Mozambique; Central African
R; Angola; Liberia; Guinea-Bissau; Mali;
Madagascar; Zambia; Sudan; Chad;
Tanzania; Guinea.
21 – 50%
8
Gambia; Lao; Burkina Faso; Benin; Sierra
Leone; Myanmar; Ethiopia; Cambodia;
51-90%
7
Malawi; Nepal; Mauritania; Bangladesh;
Togo; Uganda; Somalia;
Above 90%
7
Burundi; Haiti; Yemen; Lesotho; Eriterea;
Afghanistan; Rwanda.
Source: FAO 2003
2. Why is the agricultural potential in
LDCs underexploited?
• Domestic factors
– Low investment and utilization of modern technology
– Ineffective domestic policy frameworks
• External factors
- distorted international markets and the
challenges arising from integrating into such
markets
Domestic factors
Low investment in agriculture
1992
1995
1999
Investment in agriculture (millions US $, at 1995 prices)
Burundi
Zambia
Madagascar
Nepal
Yemen
Ethiopia
Myanmar
Source: FAO (2003)
15
20
16
69
107
164
323
22
16
24
34
46
127
1705
15
3
37
71
156
…..
3099
Government expenditure on agriculture as
a share of total expenditure
Share of agriculture in GDP
Share of agriculture in total government expenditure
60
56
52
48
44
Source: FAO (2003)
40
36
32
28
24
20
16
12
8
4
en
Ye
m
M
al
di
ve
s
Le
so
th
o
bi
a
Za
m
at
u
Va
nu
M
ad
ag
as
ca
r
hu
ta
n
B
ep
al
N
an
Su
d
ur
un
di
B
io
pi
a
Et
h
M
ya
nm
ar
0
External assistance (ODA) to agriculture in all developing
countries
25
20
20
16
15
12
10
8
5
4
0
percent
24
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
billion US$
External assistance to agriculture (EAA)
Share of EAA in total ODA
Why is the agricultural potential
in LDCs underexploited?
External factors
• Differences in support to agriculture (rich
vs. poor countries)
• Challenges arising from integrating into
distorted international agricultural markets
External factors .... consequences
External factors .... consequences
Agricultural trade balance, 1960 to 2000
Least developed countries
Source: FAO data
External factors .... consequences
• Specific challenges
– Displacement effect of import surges
– Continuing rise in food imports
– Financing the increasing food import bills
Displacement effects of import surges
Examples of import surges and production shortfalls
Senegal - tomato production
and tomato paste import
9
69
Production
Im port
7
49
5
39
29
3
19
1
9
-1
-1
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
Tomato paste import
( 1000 mt)
Tomato production
( 1000 mt)
59
Rising commercial food import bills – LDCs & NFIDCs
Commerical food import bills - current US$
12,000
10,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
Year
Commericial Food Imports LDCs
Commercial Food Imports NFIDCs
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
1974
1973
1972
1971
0
1970
US$ million
8,000
Rising commercial food import bills - LDCs
1980-89
1996-2001
million US$
LDCs Total
Change
percent
2716
4985
84
Myanmar
17.1
145.7
752
Tanzania
39.8
202.7
409
Uganda
20.0
85.2
326
Haiti
66.5
247.7
272
Nepal
32.7
118.8
263
Malawi
12.0
40.9
241
Bhutan
3.4
11.2
230
Cape Verde
13.1
42.5
224
Benin
32.6
91.1
179
Laos
9.0
24.5
172
341.7
891.3
161
Equatorial Guinea
4.1
8.4
103
Tuvalu
0.5
1.0
103
Kiribati
4.1
7.8
90
Zambia
33.1
61.8
87
Comoros
9.4
15.0
59
Cambodia
33.2
48.9
47
Bangladesh
Source: FAO (2003)
Ability to finance food import bills
Food imports as a percentage of total exports of goods and
services minus debt service, 1999
Haiti
Mauritania
Rwanda
Guinea-Bissau
Mozambique
Lesotho
Gambia
62.7
56.4
55.7
49.7
46.7
44.0
41.8
Djibouti
Senegal
Burkina Faso
Niger
Bangladesh
39.7
28.9
27.7
27.2
26.8
Burundi
Benin
26.1
21.0
Conclusions: What needs to be done from a
development and food security perspective?
• Reform international agricultural markets
– by reducing/eliminating distortions in such markets
• Improve the policy incentives in LDCs for
productivity raising investments in agriculture
• Financial and technical assistance
– to help LDCs diversify from excessive economic dependence
on one or a few agricultural commodities
Outline of the Presentation
I.
Development challenges facing LDCs and
the role of the agricultural sector
II. FAO approach to the implementation of the
BPoA
II. FAO Approach to the implementation
of the Brussels PoA
• Mainstreaming those aspects of the PoA within
FAO’s mandate into its existing Programme of
Work.
• Addressing the specific problems of LDCs on a
case-by-case basis through FAO’s technical
assistance programme.
• Annual reporting to FAO Council on progress of
implementation
II. FAO Approach to the implementation
of the Brussels PoA
FAO’s technical assistance to LDCs is focussed
on:
– Strengthening supply-side capacity and production
– Responding to emergencies
FAO Contributions to the implementation of
Brussels PoA: major areas of assistance
PoA Commitments
Major FAO activities
Commitment 1
-FAO Anti-hunger programme
Commitment 3
- Food and nutrition education
- Nutritional care and support for people with HIV/AIDS
- Agricultural education, training and extension
-Support for rural women
-Food safety and quality standards
- Building institutions that foster farmers’ and rural people’s
organisations
Commitment 4
- Special programme for food security
- Strengthening agricultural productive capacity: productivity,
diversification and quality enhancement
- Livestock production and health
- Forest and forest management
- Fishery industry: utilization, development and marketing
FAO Contributions to the implementation of
Brussels PoA: major areas of assistance
PoA Commitments
Major FAO activities
Commitment 4
(cont.)
- Assistance on emergencies
- Support in policy formulation and agricultural development
strategies
- Food insecurity and vulnerability information and mapping
system
Commitment 5
- Promoting regional economic integration by collaborating
with Regional Economic Organisations (REO)
- Support to the NEPAD initiative of the African continent
- Technical analyses and support on trade negotiations
- Assistance on agricultural commodities
Commitment 6
- Support to developing and implementing national forest
programmes
- Assistance for disaster preparedness and prevention
FAO and mobilization of resources for LDCs
•
FAO field programme
–
•
In 2003, more than 510 FAO field projects, with a total budget
value of US$ 532 million, were active in 45 of the 49 LDCs.
FAO assistance to LDCs in mobilising external
assistance to agriculture and rural development
projects.
–
During 2001 – 2003, FAO assisted LDCs by mobilizing external
funding commitments for 84 agricultural and rural development
projects, amounting to total investments of US$1,428.9 million.
FAO Field Programme Delivery in LDCs by technical sector, 2003
Others
17%
Rural
Developm ent
3%
Em ergency
36%
Natural
Resources
4%
Forestry
6%
Food Production
Support
10%
Crops
24%
Thank you