Transcript Hart Research Winning The Tax Wars Polling PowerPoint

HART
RESEARCH
A S SOC I A T ES
Winning The Tax Wars:
A Three-Step Program For
Fairness And A Strong Economy
Key findings from nationwide voter survey
Conducted June 2012
for
Survey Methodology

Survey among 1,200 U.S. registered voters

Interviews conducted online June 4 – 10, 2012

Overall margin of error = ±2.9 percentage points

Oversamples among white Catholic and white
evangelical voters yielded total samples of 349 white
Catholics and 326 white evangelicals.

The survey design was substantially informed by prior
focus groups conducted by Lake Research Associates.
2
Winning the Tax Wars: Three-Step Program for Fairness/Strong Economy–June 2012–Hart Research
Public Says Tax Reform Should Be About Fairness,
Not Lower Tax Rates
% rating each as a very important goal* for reforming federal tax system
Make tax system
more fair
62%
57%
Simplify tax system
Maintain tax deductions
for families (child credit,
college tuition deduction)
45%
Keep taxes low
41%
Reduce tax rates on
small businesses
Reduce tax rates on
all taxpayers
35%
23%
* 9 + 10 ratings on zero-to-10 scale, 10 = extremely important goal
Winning the Tax Wars: Three-Step Program for Fairness/Strong Economy–June 2012–Hart Research
3
Tax Reform Priorities: The Expenditure Side
% rating each as a very important goal* for reforming federal tax system
Reduce federal
government spending
Reduce federal
budget deficit
Ensure enough revenue for
investments that strengthen
economy: education,
research, transportation
Ensure enough revenue to
fund priorities that middleclass families depend on,
like education and Medicare
Ensure enough revenue to
fund the military and
national defense
Ensure enough revenue for
investments that create
jobs: education, research,
transportation
64%
62%
51%
48%
46%
43%
* 9 + 10 ratings on zero-to-10 scale, 10 = extremely important goal
Winning the Tax Wars: Three-Step Program for Fairness/Strong Economy–June 2012–Hart Research
4
Strong Support For Taxing The Richest 2%
Which one of these statements comes closer to your point of view?
We should raise income taxes on the richest 2% of households
63%
Strongly agree 56%
Mixed feelings
5%
We should not raise income taxes on anyone at this time
Strongly agree 29%
32%
5
Winning the Tax Wars: Three-Step Program for Fairness/Strong Economy–June 2012–Hart Research
But Many Don’t Yet See Need For More Revenue
Which one of these statements comes closer to your point of view?
The country needs more tax revenue to fund priorities like education,
transportation, and Medicare
Strongly agree 24%
31%
Mixed feelings
12%
The country does not need more tax revenue, we only need to reduce
wasteful government spending
Strongly agree 48%
57%
6
Winning the Tax Wars: Three-Step Program for Fairness/Strong Economy–June 2012–Hart Research
While Most People Are Either “Pro-Tax” Or “AntiTax,” One-Third Wants To Tax The Rich But Does
Not See Need For Revenue
Combined View: Taxing Rich/Need for Revenue
Anti-tax:
Don’t raise taxes/Don’t
need more revenue, just
cut spending
35%
Pro-tax:
Tax the rich/Need more tax
revenue to fund priorities
29%
34%
“Tax & cut”:
Tax the rich/Don’t need more
revenue, just cut spending
Winning the Tax Wars: Three-Step Program for Fairness/Strong Economy–June 2012–Hart Research
7
Public Wants Higher Corporate Tax Rates, End
to Preferential Treatment Of Capital Gains
 By more than 4-to-1, the public says that tax rates on
corporations should by higher (60%) rather than lower
(14%).
 Fully 95% favor -- 74% strongly -- ensuring that all large
corporations pay at least some income taxes.
 69% favor (36% strongly) ending preferential treatment
of income made by investors (stocks/bonds), so it is no
longer taxed at a lower rate than income made by
workers (wages/salaries).
 While 46% say ending tax breaks that allow investors to
pay lower rate than working people is a high priority for
tax reform, just 27% prioritize taxing “income from
wealth…at least as much as income from work.”
8
Winning the Tax Wars: Three-Step Program for Fairness/Strong Economy–June 2012–Hart Research
By Any Name, The Public Is Ready To End
High-End Bush Tax Cuts
% who favor* each tax/budget proposal being considered by Congress
End Bush tax cuts/
breaks for richest 2%
of households
54%
End Bush tax cuts/
breaks for top 2% of
households
Increase tax rates on
household income
above $250,000
54%
38%
* darker color = strongly favor
Winning the Tax Wars: Three-Step Program for Fairness/Strong Economy–June 2012–Hart Research
74%
71%
72%
9
Public Wants To End Bush Tax Cuts On Income
Over $250,000
The Bush tax cuts . . . are due to expire at the end of this year, . . . tax rates
will increase unless Congress takes action. Which is the better way to deal
with the Bush tax cuts?
Continue the tax cuts for
income under $250,000
but end them for income
above $250,000
Continue the tax cuts for
all income levels
68%
Feel strongly 59%
Feel strongly 27%
32%
10
Winning the Tax Wars: Three-Step Program for Fairness/Strong Economy–June 2012–Hart Research
Broad Support For Ending Bush Tax Cuts
On Incomes Over $250,000
All voters
68%
Democrats
89%
Independents
Republicans
Men
69%
43%
63%
Women
Income under $50K
71%
68%
Income $50 to $100K
70%
Income $100K/more
70%
Northeast
South
71%
65%
Midwest
69%
West
68%
Winning the Tax Wars: Three-Step Program for Fairness/Strong Economy–June 2012–Hart Research
11
Which Is The Best Reason To End The Bush Tax
Cuts For Richest 2%?
Voters who
want to end
tax cuts over
$250,000 only
All voters
So that the wealthy pay
their fair share of taxes
32%
45%
To protect priorities like
Medicare and education
18%
21%
To get the federal
budget deficit under
control
18%
16%
To make investments
in roads, bridges, and
schools to create jobs
11%
12%
12
Winning the Tax Wars: Three-Step Program for Fairness/Strong Economy–June 2012–Hart Research
Reasons To End Bush Tax Cuts For Richest 2%
(among voters who want to end tax cuts for income over $250K only)
Very
convincing*
72%
The wealthiest people in our country have received the biggest tax breaks,
and we just can’t afford to keep giving tax cuts to those who need it the
least.
69%
The wealthiest people in our country have received the biggest tax breaks,
and now it’s time for them to pay their fair share.
43%
If we give more tax breaks to the top 2%, we won’t be able to afford to
protect middle-class priorities like education and Medicare from deep
cutbacks.
41%
If we give more tax breaks to the top 2%, we won’t be able to bring the
federal budget deficit under control and we will have to keep borrowing
billions from China every year.
35%
Ending tax breaks for the top 2% will allow us to create jobs by investing in
areas like education, research, and transportation.
31%
These tax cuts were always intended to be temporary, and we should let
them expire now that the country’s needs have changed.
30%
This is a modest tax increase on the wealthy: a family making $300K would
get to keep about $9,000 of their Bush tax cuts and lose only about $100.
* 6-7 ratings on seven-point scale, 7 = extremely convincing reason
Winning the Tax Wars: Three-Step Program for Fairness/Strong Economy–June 2012–Hart Research
13
Reasons To Keep Bush Tax Cuts For All Incomes
(among voters who want to end tax cuts for income over $250K only)
Very
convincing*
52%
The national debt was caused by out-of-control government spending, not
low taxes. We should reduce the deficit by cutting wasteful spending, not
raising taxes on the American people.
37%
Raising taxes on small businesses and job creators will hurt our economy
and cost millions of Americans their jobs.
34%
The politicians may claim they are only raising taxes on high-income families,
but once they start increasing taxes you know they will raise taxes on
the struggling middle class too–and we just can’t afford that.
33%
Politicians raise taxes so they can keep growing the federal government.
Until Washington starts respecting taxpayers’ dollars, we shouldn’t give
them any more.
16%
The top 1% of taxpayers already pay almost 40% of all income taxes,
while nearly half of all people don’t pay any federal income taxes at all. We
shouldn’t penalize those who have been successful.
12%
Raising taxes only on those who have done well is class warfare, dividing
America when we should be uniting the country.
* 6-7 ratings on seven-point scale, 7 = extremely convincing reason
Winning the Tax Wars: Three-Step Program for Fairness/Strong Economy–June 2012–Hart Research
14
Public Priorities For New Revenue: Deficit
Reduction, Medicare, Education, Infrastructure
If Congress ends the Bush tax cuts for income above $250,0000, in which
three of these areas should Congress use the additional tax revenue?
Reducing budget
deficit
68%
Medicare
42%
K – 12 public
education
42%
39%
Health care
Infrastructure and
transportation
33%
National defense
25%
College loans and
tuition assistance
22%
Job training
Scientific research
18%
11%
15
Winning the Tax Wars: Three-Step Program for Fairness/Strong Economy–June 2012–Hart Research
Strong Language In Support Of Rich Paying Their
Fair Share
% who strongly agree* with each statement
59%
To get our nation back on track we need everyone to do their part,
and that includes the wealthy and large corporations.
53%
With a $1-trillion deficit, the country simply can’t afford to keep giving
out tax breaks to the wealthy and large corporations and still meet our
pressing needs.
51%
We don’t begrudge financial success in this country; we admire it.
But when the rich get tax breaks they don’t need and the country can’t
afford, somebody else has to make up the difference–and that’s not
right.
47%
Our tax code should reward hard work instead of giving special tax
breaks to the privileged and comfortable who sit around collecting
income on their wealth.
We don’t begrudge success
Reward hard work, not privileged
Democrats
63%
64%
Independents
53%
43%
Pro-tax
voters
67%
67%
* 9-10 ratings on zero-to-10 scale, 10 = totally agree
Winning the Tax Wars: Three-Step Program for Fairness/Strong Economy–June 2012–Hart Research
Tax
& cut
65%
56%
16
Summary: The Bush Tax Cuts for the Richest 2%
 Call them “the Bush tax cuts for the richest 2%.”
 Central message focus: having the rich pay their fair
share of taxes.
 Do not make this fight about jobs and the economy.
 Acknowledge need to get deficit under control. Do not
say that tax breaks, not spending, caused the deficit.
 Key debate will not be whether to tax the rich, but
defining the choice: A) end or extend cuts for the richest
2%?, or B) end or extend all tax cuts?
 Who will be blamed if all tax cuts expire?
17
Winning the Tax Wars: Three-Step Program for Fairness/Strong Economy–June 2012–Hart Research
We Have An Opportunity – For The First Time
In 30 Years – To Take The Offensive On Taxes
 The combination of strong public demand for tax
fairness and conservatives’ anti-tax absolutism creates
an opportunity to go on offense against leaders and
groups that defend unpopular tax breaks for the rich and
large corporations.
 We can potentially discredit the Americans for Tax
Reform pledge and make it a liability, transforming the
debate on tax issues.
 The tax issue can become a wedge issue that divides
the conservative coalition.
18
Winning the Tax Wars: Three-Step Program for Fairness/Strong Economy–June 2012–Hart Research
Public Rejects Tax Pledge That Protects Corporate
Loopholes And Tax Breaks For Rich
About half the Members of Congress have signed a pledge promising that they will
never vote for any tax increase. This pledge includes a promise that they will never
vote to make the very wealthy and corporations pay a penny more in taxes, even by
eliminating special tax breaks or loopholes. What is your view of those who signed
this pledge never to raise taxes?
Unfavorable:
68%
32%
Very
unfavorable
43%
Very 9%
Favorable
Democrats
Independents
Republicans
89%
73%
43%
Northeast
South
Midwest
West
73%
60%
76%
72%
However, 60% have a favorable
view of a pledge not to raise
taxes if we don’t say it applies to
tax breaks and loopholes.
Unfavorable
Winning the Tax Wars: Three-Step Program for Fairness/Strong Economy–June 2012–Hart Research
19
Going On Offense Raises Major Doubts About
Republicans In Congress
% who say each raises very major doubts about Republicans in Congress
48%
48%
47%
47%
47%
46%
Nearly every Republican in Congress has signed a pledge promising that
they will never vote to make big corporations pay a penny more in
taxes, even by closing loopholes that reward them for shipping American
jobs overseas.
Republicans in Congress voted for a tax plan that increases taxes on 18
million low-income working families, but cuts taxes by 30% for
corporations and millionaires.
Republicans in Congress passed a budget that ends the Medicare
guarantee and requires seniors to pay $6,000 more per year for fewer
benefits than they get now, while giving the richest Americans a $300,000
tax break.
Republicans favor giving more tax breaks to the wealthiest Americans and
large corporations while demanding cuts in programs that average
families rely on, like Medicare, Medicaid, and college tuition assistance.
Republicans are protecting huge tax breaks for the oil companies, even
though these companies are gouging consumers and reporting record profit.
Republicans favor keeping the policies that allow multimillionaire
investors like Mitt Romney to pay a tax rate of just 14% – far below what
many middle-class families pay.
Winning the Tax Wars: Three-Step Program for Fairness/Strong Economy–June 2012–Hart Research
20
Position Conservative Politicians As Defenders
Of A Status Quo Rigged Against Middle Class
% who strongly agree* with each statement
61%
Too many politicians are willing to stack the deck in favor of their
wealthy campaign contributors and corporate interests, while the
middle class gets stuck with the tab.
61% We need to stop wasteful spending in Washington, and that includes
getting rid of wasteful tax breaks for corporate CEOs and
billionaire hedge fund managers.
59%
Our current tax code is full of special deals for powerful interests,
and it needs to be overhauled so everyone plays by the same rules.
55%
Today our tax system is rigged in favor of the rich and big
corporations who can afford to hire lobbyists and tax lawyers, unlike
the rest of us.
* 9-10 ratings on zero-to-10 scale, 10 = totally agree
Winning the Tax Wars: Three-Step Program for Fairness/Strong Economy–June 2012–Hart Research
21
Our Long-Term Challenge: Making The Link
Between Taxes And A Strong Economy
 Public is skeptical of the claim that taxes are “needed” to
avoid cuts or create jobs.
 Use criticisms of conservatives to help public begin
connecting taxes to consequences for the middle class:
the same leaders who oppose taxing the rich also want
to cut Medicare, education, and other middle-class
priorities.
 Progress is more likely to be made in fights over federal
spending (transportation, education) than in tax reform
context. In these spending debates, we should link
conservatives’ defense of tax breaks/loopholes to their
anti-investment position.
 Focus on strengthening America’s economy for the longterm (less emphasis on short-term job creation).
Winning the Tax Wars: Three-Step Program for Fairness/Strong Economy–June 2012–Hart Research
22
Support For Public Investment
Increase funding for investments in education, research, and transportation
Favor
Strongly favor 40%
77%
23%
Oppose
Cut funding for investments in education, research, and transportation
Favor
Oppose
17%
Strongly oppose 49%
83%
75% of voters believe that spending more on transportation, education, and research
will strengthen our economy and create jobs.
Winning the Tax Wars: Three-Step Program for Fairness/Strong Economy–June 2012–Hart Research
23
HART
RESEARCH
A S SOC I A T ES
Winning The Tax Wars:
A Three-Step Program For
Fairness And A Strong Economy
Key findings from nationwide voter survey
Conducted June 2012
for