Transcript Acquisition Processes - Association for Strategic Planning

Headquarters U.S. Air Force
Strategic Challenges of Defense Planning
Presentation to the
Association of Strategic Planning
19 May 2011
Integrity - Service - Excellence
Agenda

Challenges for Defense Planners
 Resources
 Uncertainty of the Future World
 Acquisition Processes
 Technology and Innovation

Responding to the Challenges
 “Backcasting”
 Changing How we Look at the Enterprise
 Linking Strategy to Resources thru an End-to-End Process
 Using a “Corporate” Approach
 Instilling an Efficiencies Mindset
Integrity - Service - Excellence
2
National Security Strategy
"We will continue to rebalance our military
capabilities to excel at counterterrorism,
counterinsurgency, stability operations, and
meeting increasingly sophisticated security
threats, while ensuring our force is ready to
address the full range of military
operations. This includes preparing for
increasingly sophisticated adversaries,
deterring and defeating aggression in antiaccess environments, and defending the
United States and supporting civil
authorities at home.“
-- National Security Strategy, 2010
Integrity - Service - Excellence
3
Resource Context
Defense as a Percentage of GDP
40%
% of GDP
GDP (TY $ in B)
$30,000
Projection
35%
Key Summary
• FY11 (3.6% Base & 4.7%
including OCO):
─ GDP: $14,624B (OMB est.)
WWII (1945)
34.5%
30%
─
─
25%
$25,000
Base: $549B
OCO: $159B
$20,000
20%
$15,000
KOREA (1953)
11.7%
15%
(TY $ in B)
VIETNAM (1968)
8.9%
FY11
4.7%
REAGAN BUILD UP
6.0%
$10,000
FY15*
3.5%
10%
GULF WAR (1991)
4.4%
5%
$5,000
$0
0%
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Notes:
*FY12-15 DoD funding includes $50B/year for OCO
FY11-20 GDP and DoD % based on OMB 1 Feb 10 projections
“The fact that we are a nation at war and facing an uncertain world, I believe, calls for sustaining current
military force structure – Army brigades, Marine regiments, Air Force wings, Navy ships. This typically
requires regular real growth in the defense budget ranging from two to three percent above inflation “
- SECDEF, 8 May 2010
Integrity - Service - Excellence
4
Percent of GDP
Long-Range Projections put
Compression on Discretionary Spending
Integrity - Service - Excellence
5
Challenges of the Time Horizon

Did anyone predict that the U.S. would be relying on Russia for a manned space
missions only 25 years after the Challenger explosion?

Did anyone predict in 1986 that members of the Warsaw pact would be part of NATO
and would support a U.S.-led coalition for wars in Iraq and Afghanistan?

Did anyone predict that we would have over 100,000 troops deployed to Afghanistan
22 years after the Soviets withdrew?

Did anyone 20 or 30 years ago predict that China would be the “near-peer”
competitor?

Did anyone predict that the we would be investing so heavily in alternative sources of
energy?
Integrity - Service - Excellence
6
Acquisition Processes

“It can take 10 to 20 years for modernization programs to be incorporated into the
military’s capabilities, compared with approximately 18 months for the commercial
sector to do so.”
– 21st Century Strategic Technology Vectors, Defense Science Board, April 2007.

“The Department of Defense's conventional modernization programs seek a 99
percent solution over a period of years. Stability and counterinsurgency missions
require 75 percent solutions over a period of months.”
– Robert Gates, “A Balanced Strategy: Reprogramming the Pentagon for a New Age,”
Foreign Affairs, Jan / Feb 2009.

“Many of these advanced capabilities…are largely software-driven, with upgrades
and changes that are enabled by mere software updates. This calls not just for
‘more’ or ‘better’ systems in response, but also for more autonomous and
evolvable systems, which, we believe, would prove effective in helping us contain,
at least in part, our problem of rising costs.”
– Gen. Norton Schwartz, Remarks at the Defense Programs Conference, Arlington, Va.,
March 2, 2011
Integrity - Service - Excellence
7
Technology and Innovation

Strategic Innovation
 U.S. can no longer assume that it will stay ahead of its adversaries by
simply spending more on research, development, and procurement.
 Need new ideas to confront the threats of the future.

Technological Innovation
 “The U.S. government and its defense partners no longer are at the
leading edge of most of the militarily-relevant technologies, having
been displaced by international commercial industries and markets.”
21st Century Strategic Technology Vectors, Defense Science Board,
April 2007.
Integrity - Service - Excellence
8
Backcasting
Nuclear Deterrence Operations
Budget $
Air Superiority
Nuclear Deterrence
Operations
Space Superiority
Air Superiority
Cyberspace Superiority
Space Superiority
Command and Control
Vision
Cyberspace Superiority
Programmed
Command
and Control
Force
Global Integrated ISR
Global Integrated ISR
Global Precision Attack
Global Precision Attack
Special Operations
Special Operations
Rapid Global Mobility
Rapid Global Mobility
Personnel Recovery
Planning Force
Personnel Recovery
Agile Combat Support
Agile Combat Support
Building Partnerships
Building Partnerships
2018
2013
Programming (FYDP)
2032
Planning
Integrity - Service - Excellence
9
Changing How We look at the Enterprise
Integrity - Service - Excellence
10
Service Core Functions
Nuclear
Deterrence Ops
Air Superiority
Space
Superiority
Cyberspace
Superiority
Global Precision
Attack
Rapid Global
Mobility
Operate,
maintain, and
secure nuclear
forces to deter
an adversary
from taking
action against
US vital
interests
Deliver
dominance in
the air battle
Deliver
dominance in
space over
adversaries
Deliver
dominance in
cyberspace of
one force over
another that
permits conduct
of operations by
the former
Hold at risk or
strike rapidly
and persistently
any target to
achieve precise
effects
Timely
deployment,
employment,
sustainment,
augmentation
and
redeployment of
military forces
and capabilities
Special
Operations
Global
Integrated ISR
Command &
Control
Personnel
Recovery
Building
Partnerships
Agile Combat
Support
Specialized
airpower
operations
conducted in
hostile, denied
or politically
sensitive
environments
Conducting and
synchronizing
intelligence,
surveillance and
reconnaissance
across all
domains
Ability of
commanders to
integrate
operations in
multiple
theaters at
multiple levels
Recover and
return of US
military, DoD
civilians and
DoD contractor
personnel
Set conditions
for interaction
with partner,
competitor or
adversary
leaders, military
forces or
relevant
populations
Field, protect
and sustain air,
space and cyber
forces
Integrity - Service - Excellence
11
Linking Strategy to Resources thru an End-to-End Process
National Guidance
(QDR, NSS, NMS, NDS,
NPR, SPR, DPPG)
Headquarters, Major
Commands, Wings
Strategic
Environmental
Assessment
Warfighter
Support
Organize
Train & Equip
Congress
Authorize /
Appropriate
Air Force
Strategic Plan
Priorities, Goals,
Objectives, Metrics
Core Function
Master Plans
President’s Budget
Futures Game
Program Objective
Memorandum
USAF
Joint
Planning Force
Annual Planning and
Programming
Guidance
Integrity - Service - Excellence
12
Core Function Master Plans:
Form and Function
CFMP-Content

Align strategy, operating concepts and
capabilities by Service Core Function over a 20
year period

Address independent, Service Core Function
related perspectives across the Air Force

Enable a holistic approach to the Total Force
Enterprise

Improve Risk Assessment credibility and fidelity

Identify mitigation strategies in light of
anticipated fiscal and operational challenges

Prioritize Science & Technology on far-term
strategy
Strategic Vision
Operational View
Programmed Force
Programmed Force Extended
Planning Force Proposal
Operations and Maintenance Challenges
Science and Technology
Efficiencies
Total Force Enterprise Manpower
Metrics
Decision Space Summary
Inform force structure decisions for each fiscal
CFMPs
formPlanning
a common
framework
linking
strategic
year’s
Force
and Annual
Planning
and
planning
and programming
Programming
Guidance to improve what the
Air Force brings to America’s security

Integrity - Service - Excellence
13
Air Force Corporate Structure
Air Force Council
Air Force Board
Strategic Planning
Committee
Investment Budget
Review Committee
Air Force Group
Mission Panels
C2 & Cyber
Superiority
Global
Mob, SOF,
PR, BP
Air
Superiority &
Global Attack
Operating Budget
Review Committee
Mission Support Panels
Space
Superiority &
ISR
Nuclear
Deterrence
Operations
Logistics
CS&P
RDT&E
Integrity - Service - Excellence
Personnel
& Training
Installation
Support
14
Efficiencies Strategy

Focus on reducing “tail” to buy “tooth”

Programmed efficiencies must be achievable & require active governance
structure

Efficiencies cannot just be top-down

Maximize the value of every taxpayer dollar

Shift resources from overhead to force structure & modernization

Look hard at all programs & appropriations for waste & opportunity

Improve & sustain warfighter capability

Not just an “event” -- must become a way of doing business
“We are committed to a deliberate and ongoing process to enhance capabilities by reducing
overhead and support functions and shifting resources to warfighter and readiness programs”
Joint Statement from the SECAF/CSAF - 6 Jan, 2011
Integrity - Service - Excellence
15
What Keeps Planners Awake

Backcasting from the future in an environment of severe fiscal constraints

Making the right choices – when we won’t be able to buy everything we think
we need

Reducing costs without reducing capability, manpower, energy, or other O&M

Steering innovation linked with the future environment

What is the right Active Component/Reserve Component mix for various
mission areas

Balancing across the core functions

Balancing between conventional and irregular warfare and A2AD

Balancing modernization, readiness, and force structure

Mitigating threats to availability and delivery of energy
Integrity - Service - Excellence
16
Worthy Advice
“Gentleman, we
are out of money.
Therefore, we will
have to think.”
Integrity - Service - Excellence
17