Transcript Measuring_2013 - New Hampshire Center for Public Policy

Board of Directors
Sheila T. Francoeur, Chair
David Alukonis
Michael Buckley
Measuring
New Hampshire
in 2013
William H. Dunlap
Eric Herr
Richard Ober
James Putnam
Stephen J. Reno
Stuart V. Smith, Jr.
Donna Sytek
Brian F. Walsh
Martin L. Gross, Chair
Emeritus
A Visual Guide to the Coming Year
John D. Crosier, Sr.,
Todd I. Selig
Kimon S. Zachos
“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”
Directors Emeritus
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Measuring 2013
The coming year promises a long list of weighty policy
debates in New Hampshire: a new round of state budget
negotiations, possible expansion of the Medicaid program,
and continued uncertainty about the state and national
economies.
The following eight charts aren’t a definitive guide to New
Hampshire’s public policy landscape in 2013. Rather, we
intend them to provoke questions about some of the
challenges facing the state – in the areas of health care,
economic growth and public education, among others – in
the coming months.
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Coming and going
Net Migration Into and Out of New Hampshire
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71
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73
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75
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77
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79
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81
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97
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01
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03
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35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
-5,000
-10,000
-15,000
-20,000
Demographics has shaped New Hampshire’s destiny over the past four decades. Over that
time, tens of thousands more people moved to the state than left. That population growth
resulted in higher education levels, increases in average personal income and higher
productivity for the state economy. But that trend has reversed itself in recent years (See pink
circle. Data for 2012 is not yet available.) What steps can policymakers take in 2013 to address
this slow-down in economic and population growth? Or is such growth even desirable?
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A new balance of power
NH House, 2013
NH House, 2011
102
179
221
298
Democratic
Republican
Perhaps no outcome of the 2012 election was more significant in New Hampshire than the shift
in partisan control in the House of Representatives. Democrats more than doubled their number
of seats in that chamber, giving them a solid majority. Republicans continue to hold a majority in
the Senate, and this division in partisan control will make for interesting negotiations on a wide
range of policy issues, most notably the state budget. How will the two parties’ leaders navigate
this new balance of power, and what will it mean for public policy?
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Time for a housing
rebound?
NH Single-Family Residential Home Sales and Price (MLS)
Source: NH Association of REALTORS
25,000
20,000
$300,000
Median Home Price
Decline from the Peak:
Sales -40% from 2004
Price -25% from 2005
$250,000
$200,000
15,000
Number of Units Sold
$150,000
10,000
$100,000
5,000
$50,000
0
$0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Units sold
2005
2006
2007
2008
Median Price
2009
2010
2011
2012
2012 YTD thru November
New Hampshire’s housing market has been in a slump for the past four years, with median prices
and total sales essentially flat since the recession. The health of the real estate market effects all
aspects of the state’s economy, including construction, retail sales and – not least – state
revenues. Sales have picked up slightly in 2012, though prices remain flat. Will 2013 finally mark a
healthy rebound from post-recession lows, or will the market continue its flat course?
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A mixed jobs picture
Index of Total NonFarm Employment
(Seasonally Adjusted)
101.0
100.0
New Hampshire
New England
98.0
97.0
96.0
95.0
94.0
United States
93.0
92.0
Ja
n0
M 7
ay
-0
Se 7
p0
Ja 7
n0
M 8
ay
-0
Se 8
p0
Ja 8
n0
M 9
ay
-0
Se 9
p0
Ja 9
n1
M 0
ay
-1
Se 0
p1
Ja 0
n1
M 1
ay
-1
Se 1
p1
Ja 1
n1
M 2
ay
-1
Se 2
p12
Dec 2007 =100
99.0
US
NE
NH
While New Hampshire suffered a less severe drop in employment than the rest of the country during
the recession, the recovery has been mixed. As this chart shows, national employment is on a
steady rising path, while New Hampshire appears to have stagnated, with the number of jobs
holding steady since mid-2012. As of September, the state was below both the rest of New England
and the rest of the country in terms of job gains since the recession. What strategies will
policymakers adopt to address this?
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Forecasting growth
New Hampshire Unrestricted Revenue in Millions
$2,400.0
Actual
Forecasts
$2,350.0
$2,300.0
$2,250.0
$2,200.0
$2,150.0
$2,100.0
$2,050.0
$2,000.0
Baseline (50% prob)
Stronger Near-Term
Rebound (10% prob)
Mild Recession (25% prob)
Deep Recession (10%
prob)
$1,950.0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
The coming negotiations over the 2014-2015 state budget will be dictated, in large part, by
forecasts for tax revenue growth in the next two years. These forecasts have proven tricky
through the recession, with most years seeing zero or very modest increases in revenue.
Predicting the state of the economy two years into the future is a tricky business. But budget
writers will want to get the math right since those revenue forecasts will largely shape the
spending options available in the next budget.
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Declining student numbers
NH public school enrollment, Pre-K through Grade 12
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
01-02
02-03
03-04
04-05
05-06
06-07
07-08
08-09
09-10
10-11
11-12
New Hampshire’s public schools have seen a decline in students over the past decade, from a high
of 207,000 students in the 2002-03 school year, to roughly 191,000 in the past school year. This trend
is closely tied to demographic shifts and migration patterns, among other things. But what
implications will this shrink in student populations have for education policy in the coming year,
including school finances, district consolidation, and curriculum offerings?
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Rising cost of health care
Average Family Health Insurance Premium
as % of Mean Family Income in New Hampshire
20%
18.2%
18%
16%
16.9%
14%
15.4%
14.0%
12%
10%
10.2%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2008
2009
2010
2011
Year
The rising cost of care has resulted in higher insurance premiums – both in New Hampshire
and across the country. As this chart illustrates, premiums are consuming an increasing
percent of household incomes. The coming year will be a time for the state to prepare for full
implementation of the federal Affordable Care Act, meaning health care (and the cost of health
care) will be a constant topic of discussion.
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Medicaid under pressure
State Spending Drivers
7%
6.5%
5.8%
Annualized Increase 1982 to 2012
6%
5%
4%
2.9%
3%
2%
1.2%
1%
0%
Population
Title XIX Medicaid
Caseloads
Inflation
Total Fund Spending
In the upcoming Legislative session, Medicaid will be at the center of numerous budget
conversations. The number of caseloads for Medicaid, which provides health insurance to lowincome residents, has consistently grown in excess of inflation and population. Addressing the
program’s financial pressures – whether through the implementation of a managed care system,
the Medicaid Enhancement Tax, or the Affordable Care Act – will be one of the major tasks facing
policymakers in 2013.
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“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”
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