Transcript The future of higher education in the OECD area: does demography

Demographic challenges:
some perspectives for the
future
Stéphan Vincent-Lancrin
OECD
Centre for Educational Research
and Innovation
OECD/CERI Project on the
Future of Higher Education
• Trends analysis
– Demography
– Technology
– Globalisation
– Academic research
– Labour market
• Futures scenarios
Outline
• Why does demography matter?
• What can we expect in terms of
quantitative changes?
• What are the qualitative challenges?
• What will it take to address them?
Why does demography matter?
Quantitative changes and tertiary enrolments
Evolution of the 18-24 population by 2025
(2005=100)
Source: United Nations, Population division (revision 2006)
Scenario 1: Projected tertiary enrolments in 2025
under current conditions (2005=100)
Source: OECD, Higher Education 2030, Vol. 1 Demography
Scenario 2: Projected tertiary enrolments in 2025
under recent trends (2005=100)
Source: OECD, Higher Education 2030, Vol. 1 Demography
Total expenditures for tertiary education institutions as %
of GDP in 2005, and projected difference by 2025 under
scenario 2 (GDP points)
GDP set at 2% growth and educational costs per head projected linearly according to 1995-2005 growth rate (constant prices)
Source: OECD, Higher Education 2030, Vol. 1 Demography
Tertiary educational attainment (%) of
25-64 population
Tertiary educational attainment (%) of
25-44 population
Qualitative changes in tertiary enrolments
Population estimates for the make-up of 18-25
year olds in the United States
Source: US Censur Bureau
Social inequity over time
(father’s education)
Source: Social Situation Observatory (except Japan, Korea, and Australia)
Growth in the number of foreign
students (2000-2006, 2000=100)
Share of tertiary degrees awarded to women
Gender gap in tertiary educational
attainment (F-M) by age group
No gap in 2005; +18% for youngest cohort if strict projection; >10% ?
Addressing the quality access challenges
On your memory stick
Higher Education 2030
– Volume 1: Demography
Forthcoming:
– Volume 2: Technology
– Volume 3: Globalisation
– Volume 4: Scenarios
[email protected]
THANK YOU
www.oecd.org/edu/universityfutures