Transcript Introduction - Nevada Subcontractors Association

Nevada Labor Market Briefing:
September 2013
Department of Employment, Training &
Rehabilitation
Frank R. Woodbeck, Director
Bill Anderson, Chief Economist
Leanndra Copeland, Supervising Economist
Prepared by the Research and Analysis Bureau
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
Impacts of the Federal Government
Shutdown
The Research and Analysis Bureau in Nevada’s Department of Employment, Training &
Rehabilitation partners with the U.S. Department of Labor to oversee the State’s labor
market information program. As a result of the Federal government shutdown, primary labor
data (unemployment rate, job growth, etc.) for September is not available for dissemination
at this time, as it normally would be.
Our practice is to supplement our core labor market information each month with a variety of
other indicators of economic activity in the State to provide a more complete picture of the
health of the economy. In our September analysis which follows, we will utilize these
special topics to offer a brief commentary on economic conditions in the State, including a
look forward, highlighting our current labor market forecast recently presented to the
Employment Security Council.
When September labor market information becomes available, we will make every effort to
prepare Nevada’s estimates for distribution as quickly as possible. We apologize for any
inconvenience this may cause, but we are faced with circumstances beyond our control.
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
National Perspective
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
Key U.S. Economic Indicators


Readings of consumer sentiment and confidence
remain volatile from month-to-month. While
declines were measured in September, these
barometers appear to be trending up over time.
Real GDP up 2.5% in 2013:IIQ, with personal
consumption expenditures up by 1.8%.
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
U.S. Real GDP Growth (quarter-overquarter; SAAR)
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
IQ
IIQ
IIIQ
2009

IVQ
IQ
IIQ
IIIQ
2010
IVQ
IQ
IIQ
IIIQ
2011
IVQ
IQ
IIQ
IIIQ
2012
IVQ
IQ
IIQ
2013
The nation’s economy grew 2.5% in 2013:IIQ, up from a 1.1% gain in the
previous quarter. Growth in consumption expenditures came in at 1.8%,
compared to a 2.3% gain in 2013:IQ.
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures
Growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate)
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
'04


'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
On the rise for 16 consecutive quarters.
Underlying trends benefit Nevada’s tourism/gaming/entertainment sector.
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
Nevada Economic Indicators
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
Key Nevada Economic Indicators

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
July taxable sales up 6.2% from a year ago, the 37th straight
gain. (+5.5% YTD)
Gaming win up 11.2% in August. (0.8% YTD)
Las Vegas visitor volume up 0.9% in August. (unchanged YTD)
Gold prices averaged $1,347/oz. in September, off by $401 from
a year ago and essentially unchanged from the previous month.
The number of new business entity formations in Nevada rose
8.6% from a year ago in September. (0.2% YTD)
The number of Nevadans seeking assistance through the State’s
TANF Program fell two percent on a year-over-year basis in
August. The growth in SNAP (“food stamps”) enrollment has
eased considerably of late, and was up just 2.5%.
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
Residential Construction and Real Estate
Activity




Nevada housing starts are up nearly 40% from a year ago
through August.
Resale prices in Southern Nevada have increased relative
to a year ago in each of the past 18 months. Gains have
been 25%+ in each of the past ten months. New home
prices are also on the mend…up 12 straight months with
five consecutive months of 30%+ gains.
Resale activity in Southern Nevada is trending down as
inventories have been constrained. September brought
with it the 14th consecutive year-over-year decline in
resales.
Southern Nevada new home closings have risen sharply
of late, and stand more than 50% higher than year-ago
readings so far in 2013. Permit activity has also
strengthened, suggesting continued improvement.
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
Nevada Residential Mortgages in the
Foreclosure Process: Loans Started and Total
Inventory of Loans in the Foreclosure Process
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
Started


'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
Total
The number of residential mortgages entering into the foreclosure process
totaled 3,600 in this year’s second quarter, down by 200 from the prior
three months; down from a peak of 20,700 and the lowest reading since
late-2006.
All told, the total number of residential loans in the foreclosure process is
approximately 22,600, down from a peak of 56,000.
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
Nevada Personal Income Growth (yearover-year)
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
'04



'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
Consists of wages/salaries; dividends/interest/rents; and transfer
payments.
Like other indicators, income trends suggest that the economy bottomed
out over the 2009-2010 period.
In 2013:IIQ, personal income is up 2.7% from a year ago.
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
Number of States with a Private Sector
Job Growth Rate Lower than Nevada
60
50
50
50
46
40
34
30
24
20
14
14
10
2
0
'04
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

'05
'06
'07
'08
0
0
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13 YTD
In the years preceding the recession, Nevada led the nation in employment growth
(based upon QCEW information).
Nevada was impacted by the recession more than any other state in terms of
employment growth.
Beginning In 2011, Nevada’s employment growth rate began rising again. Private
sector jobs grew 2.3% in 2013:IQ, higher than that for 34 other states.
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
Nevada Employers Growth (year-overyear)
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
'04


'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13 YTD
Following three straight years of declines, the number of employers
participating in Nevada’s Unemployment Insurance began to rise in 2012.
Gains have been recorded in each of the past eight quarters, but growth
has eased a bit of late.
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
Distribution of Private Sector Business
Establishments by Employment Size
0-4
5-9
Number of Employees
10-19
20-49
50-99
100-249
250-499
500-999
1000+
0



5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000 25,000 30,000
Establishments
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
72,800 individual worksites.
More than half, nearly 45,000, employ less than five workers.
There are just 75 establishments with at least 1,000 employees.
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
Two Measures of Average Weekly Wages in
Nevada
QCEW
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
$900
$850
$800
$750
$700
$650
$600
2007
CES


2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) is based off of a
complete count of jobs/wages and is a more accurate measure of average
weekly wages. Current Employment Statistics estimates are survey-driven.
QCEW information does not show a pronounced drop in wages as the
recession’s impacts unfolded, whereas CES estimates do.
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
Nevada Labor Market Demographics: Black
Employment
110,000
105,000
100,000
95,000
90,000
85,000
80,000
2006



2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Black employment in Nevada totals about 98,100.
Down from a pre-recession peak of 107,300.
Up by 9,500 from the cyclical low.
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
Nevada Jobs: History and Forecast
1,300,000
1,250,000
1,200,000
1,150,000
1,100,000
1,050,000
1,000,000
'02
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'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
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'14
'15
Job growth turned positive in 2011, and continued on into 2012 and 2013.
We are on pace to add about 23,000 jobs this year.
Growth should strengthen a bit in 2014 and 2015.
 26,000 and 30,000, respectively
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
Nevada’s Unemployment Rate Forecast
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14
'15
 The jobless rate peaked at 13.8% in 2010, and has declined
more than four points since.
 We expect a modest downtrend over the next several years.
 9.5% in 2013 (9.7% YTD)
 9.2% in 2014 and 8.8% in 2015
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
For Additional Information, Please Contact:
Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation
Research and Analysis Bureau
Bill Anderson
Chief Economist
[email protected]
Leanndra Copeland
Supervising Economist
[email protected]
(775) 684-0450
http://www.nevadaworkforce.com
follow us on Twitter @nvlabormarket
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency