Transcript Climate change impacts in Belize - Eco

Climate change
challenges to marine
ecosystems in the
Western Hemisphere
WHMSI III - Asunción 2008
C. Drews, L. Hawkes, N. Bood and J.
Hoffman
WWF - Programa Marino y de Especies
para Latinoamérica y el Caribe
Methane load of the atmosphere
The good news: Conservation
…well, does it really?
… a matter of time-scale …
works!
Climate Change - how does it affect
marine biodiversity?
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Increasing ambient and SST
Sea level rise
Acidification, salinity changes and O2
Alterations in oceanic currents
Intensity and frequency of extreme weather events
– (e.g. rainfall, drought, storms and hurricanes)
• (UV radiation via link with temperature) - JENNY
Proyecciones regionales (IPCC)
Annual mean, DJF and JJA temp and precipitation change between 1980 to 1999 and 2080 to 2099
Figure
Figure 11.15
A CLIMATE FORECAST FOR THE CARIBBEAN
Annual precipitation
Source: Hulme & Sheard 1999 WWF and CRU
Even if the world community succeeds in reducing CO2
emissions from 2015 onwards, ocean levels will rise by
between 0.40 to 1.40 meters, maybe not in the 21st century,
but a bit later.
IPCC head Rajendra Pachauri, Spiegel, 19 November, 2007
Cancún - desde 57 km
2 m - aumento del nivel del mar en
Cancún - desde 57 km
2 m - aumento del nivel del mar en
Yucatán - desde 587 km
Source: Holland & Webster 2007
Impacts of climate change
- Fish
- Coral reefs
- Marine turtles
What are the impacts on fish?
-Changes in abundance and
distribution
- Some tropical waters
empoverished
Implications to food
security and coastal
economies.
Present: SBT, CSIRO Mk3
Slide by Alistair Hobday - CSIRO
2100: SBT, CSIRO Mk3
Slide by Alistair Hobday - CSIRO
Source: Cesar, Burke & Pet-Soede 2003
(WWF-ICRAN) Economics of reef degradation.
Source: Cesar, Burke & Pet-Soede 2003.
Warmer SST - impacts to coral reefs
WWF / Melanie McField
WWF / Cat Holloway
2005
• Hottest year since
records (1880)
• Record: hurricane
frequency (13) and
intensity (Wilma)
• 50-100% bleaching
• Disease followed
bleaching
• Mortality: US Virgin
Islands 52%, T&T 73%
in some colonies
The future
• Unknown increase in
thermal tolerance
• “Committed” thermal
stress next 20-30 years
• Optimistic forecast: low
intensity bleaching (> 2oC
DHM) every 2 years by
2050s.
• Annual severe bleaching
if business as usual
Source: Wilkinson & Souter 2008
Observed climate change impacts in Belize
• More intense storms
Hurricane Iris 2000
Climate change impacts in Belize
Elevated sea temperatures = bleaching
Southern lagoon reef 1998
Reef death in 1998 (95%)
Climate change impacts in Belize
• Flooding with damage to properties
The cost of inaction
• Overall, in the Caribbean, climate
change is predicted to cause an annual
loss of US$ 109.9 million in terms of
increased sea-surface temperatures,
sea-level rise and loss of species
among others, which equates to 13.8%
of the total GDP
Source: Tol, R.S.J. (1997) A Decision-Analytic Treatise of the Enhanced Greenhouse Effect. PhD Thesis, Vrije Universiteit
Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
Money talks: how much is a
marine turtle worth?
CONSUMPTIVE USE
NON- CONSUMPTIVE USE
A marine turtle is worth more alive than dead
By Sebastian Troëng and Carlos Drews (2004)
Marine turtle tourism in the
Western Hemisphere
• Barbados, Brazil, Cayman Islands, Costa Rica,
Ecuador, Grenada, Guyana, Mexico, Panama,
Puerto Rico, St Lucia, St Vincent, Suriname,
Trinidad & Tobago, USA (Florida), …
• 15 nations, at least 50 sites, and increasing …
Marine turtles: a driver of cash income
•Two thirds of countries with developing
economies have marine turtles
•175,000 turtle tourists / year, more than 90
sites in more than 40 countries.
• 2002 - US$ 6.7 mio in Tortuguero (235
guides, 26.292 visitors)
• 1,280 employees (60% female) in Brazil by
Projeto TAMAR (merchandizing & tourism)
• Gross revenue 3 x higher for use of turtle
alive than dead
Built
Natural
Financial
Healthy Ecosystem
Vital Economy
Political
Social Well-Being
Cultural
Human
Social
BEACHES - a prime asset for tourism
Marejada en Junquillal - WWF/ Gabriel Francia
Myrtle Beach - WWF Carlos Drews
Temperature Sex Determination
34oC
32oC
29oC
27oC
25oC
Climate change causes sex ratio biases and mortality
Predicción del
porcentaje de sexos en
los diferentes puntos
Época seca
Más machos
Más hembras
100 % hembras
Desnaturalización
de los huevos
WWF Carlos Drews
Fuente: Micaela Peña-Mosquera 2006
Third generation conservation
- Threats are “God given” agents
- New challenges / knowledge / capacity gaps
- Resilience: a new perspective on mitigation of
non-climate stressors
- Adapting people and ecosystems to the inevitable
- Crystal ball driven