Transcript Scenario update

Scenario update
Willi Haas, Dominik Wiedenhofer, Marina Fischer-Kowalski
SEC
Introduction
• An overwhelming stock of literature on SET clearly argues, that there will
be more change than continuity; however, changes are quite unclear
• Still, both policy and research domains from various fields explore issues as
they were independent from each other; maybe this is a rational response
• Update of D1.2 WP: Scenarios taking into account results of WPs2-8 as well
as partial results of WPs11-19
• This is neither a research based on literature nor a presentation of model
results
• Explore potential links between scenarios and WPs
• Welcome your feedback/observations
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Three futureThree
scenariosforced
for 2050 future scenar
Global metabolic scales in billion tonnes
Global m
UNEP,
International
Resource panel
2011
16
160
2050
Construction minerals
Ores and industrial
minerals
Fossil fuels
120
12
Biomass
80
8
2050
2050
2000
40
4
0
0
Baseline 2000
Freeze &
.
catching up
Factor 2 &
catching up
Freeze global
DMC
Baseline 2000
Fr
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The transition to a service economy: a sollution?
The service sector requires significant amounts of energy and materials, but mostly through
intermediate demand and investments – Eurostat study (Schoer et al. 2012)
EU27 in 2005
Schoer, K. et al. 2012. “Raw
Material Consumption of the
European Union – Concept,
Calculation Method, and
Results.” Environmental
Science & Technology 46, no.
16: 8903–9.
doi:10.1021/es300434c.
RES = real estate services
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Global scenarios and European responses
Global level
European level
Megatrends in
natural
conditions
1.Energy transitions
2.Rising challenges to
resource security
3.Increasing climate
change impacts
Global scenarios
friendly
tough
Three response options
No policy change
No additional policy, European policy response remains in a
business-as-usual mode, defending the given mode of
production & consumption
Ecological Modernization
Economic growth first, achieve eco-efficient production through
market-based instruments, “internalizing externalities”, higher
flexibility
Sustainability transformation
Balancing social & environmental issues: Smart, lean and fair
societal metabolism combined with concerns on welfare and
social inclusion; changes in consumption (patterns and lower
levels) with structural change of economy
Societal
megatrends
4.Demographic
transitions
5.Shifting economic
and political centres
of gravity
6.Growing ICT use and
knowledge sharing
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WP2-8: potential drivers/challenges
• WP2: shows that labour market discourses rarely incorporate green issues
• WP4: highlights that currently labour markets are faced with strong polarization
pressure and sketch out potential future pathways
• WP5: investigates how social investment can contribute to long-term social
sustainability goals, while current welfare spending is dominated by short-term
mitigation
• WP6: shows that labour market flexibility and innovation are linked; although
pure efficiency concerns should be balanced with social concerns
• WP7: assumes that in health and care services there are two spheres emerging:
formal, more standardised, high-quality services and hidden, semi-formal
services of unknown quality
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Improves our understanding
of current situation
WP
.
.
.
.
Contributes to
clarification of
„Ecological Modernization“
response
Contributes to
„Sustainability Transformation“
response
Improves our understanding
of current situation
WP2
labour market discourses on
‚good jobs‘
Highlights the need for a
clearer conceptualization of
„green“ jobs/skills; and the
lack of reliable quantitative
data (monitoring SET relevant changes)
WP4
On-going polarization of
labour market and increasing
pressure esp. on middleskilled jobs;
potential deepening of socioeconomic inequality and job
attainment opportunities
Contributes to
clarification of
„Ecological Modernization“
response
Contributes to
„Sustainability Transformation“
response
Flexibility concerns prevail over
classical job security issues; improved
economic performance and
competitiveness as major goal
Productive synthesis of flexibility and
security discourses following a narrative
of „good work“ and balanced
combination of flexibility and security,
combined with societal safety nets and
diversity of options for employees;
implementation on national levels, not
only EU level documents
Polarization of socio-economic
inequality and labour market is only
partly addressed, mostly focused on
employability and flexibility
Convergence of approaches towards an
open educational system with less/no
early barriers and tracking; focus on root
causes of polarization;
Improves our understanding
of current situation
WP5
WP6
Refocusing of welfare
spending towards long-term
societal goals has great
potential and has shown good
effects in selected countries
Links between innovation,
firm-flexibility, cyclical
behaviour of the economy and
employment
Contributes to
clarification of
„Ecological Modernization“
response
Very mixed trends on social
investments in Europe due to
financial constraints and shortterm focus of policy;
polarization concerns increase
and efforts fail to adequately
address inequality
Strong efforts towards more
flexible labour markets, shortterm contracts and employee
mobility to strengthen
economic growth (which is
supposed to create jobs and
income)
Contributes to
„Sustainability Transformation“
response
Concerted European consensus towards
efficient social investments which contribute to
a more cohesive and equal Europe; focus on
social services and investments for all (c.f.
childcare);
esp. Southern & Eastern European countries
can extend social investments
Flexibility in the labour market and for firms to
improve innovation potentials; flanked by
efficient and comprehensive active labour
market policies, social investments (c.f. WP5),
and income support when required
Improves our understanding
of current situation
Contributes to
clarification of
„Ecological Modernization“
response
Contributes to
„Sustainability Transformation“
response
WP7
Health and care sectors at
crossroads; labour force is
rapidly ageing
Mixed approach, mainly the
„low road“; widening gap
between formal and informal
sector
Convergence towards the „high road“ in social
services provision (Sirovátka et al. 2013, 6f);
balanced mix between formal and informal
sector
WP8
Ongoing urbanization and
potential for more flexible
labour market in cities, esp.
for part-time work, work-life
balance
Boosting of economic growth
via urban labour market
flexbility and high-skilled
labour; increasing inequality
between rich cities and
poor(er) rural areas and urban
poor
Environmental efficiency potential of cities can
be tapped and more sustainable life stlyes
emerge due to high education and potential for
more flexible labour regime, such as part time
work
WP11-19: two birds with one stone?
Skill level
Skill gap
tough/friendly – eco-modernization/sustainability transformation
Social
services
Health
care
Energysector
Transport
Material
manage
ment
Agriculture
Housing
Quantity
Thank you for your attention
this is not just Polish
stone
SET
labour
WP2: Are green considerations part of existing labour market
discourses?
• labour market discourses in Hungary, Spain and Slovakia generally
lack „green“ considerations, partly also in the UK
• In these countries the discourse is mostly caught up in classical
flexibility vs security debates and
• „[…] the UK discourse is the only one among the four countries in
which ‘green values’ appear on the horizon of main stakeholders
when they try to leave the ‘flexibility with or without security’
discourse behind, do not consider the concept of flexicurity sufficient,
and reach out for the ‘good work’ narrative.” (Kovacs et al. 2013, p.
27)
Currently only small number of green skills and jobs in the existing
labour market … additionally urgent need for better definitions and data
(WP2 & 4)
WP2 critically discusses that current large surveys and taxonomies on goods jobs and skills, job satisfaction, etc
… only to a very limited extent include green attributes and hardly allow for an identification of green jobs &
skills. „In almost all taxonomies, the ‘greenness’ of jobs is missing from the list of main quality features (and
does not even appear among their constituting variables) despite the fact that, as demonstrated above, in the
political discourse terms such as ‘green values’, ‘green jobs’, ‘green skills’, ‘green turn’, ‘Green Deal’ ‘green
investment’, ‘green transition’, ‘green-collar worker’, ‘greening the economy’ have been mushrooming during
the past 10 to 15 years. Thus, the fundamental question of whether or not ‘green jobs are good jobs’ cannot be
discussed with the survey respondents. The same applies to the rival preferences for ‘creating jobs in a green
industry’ versus ‘greening’ the jobs in a ‘brown’ industry, or to the problem of the ‘brown’ (dirty) jobs in ‘green’
(clean) industries’. (Kovacs 2013, 31f)
WP4, using a database on job adds, shows that: “[…] to date, there is only a small number of green jobs in the
European economy. With only 3.25% of jobs in the European Union being ‘dark’ or ‘light’ green in focus and
activities, the impact of the socio-ecological transition on the labour market still seems to be fairly limited.”
(Colijn 2013, 2)
“This means that on top of other forces currently influencing the labour market, such as the increasing
influence of information technology, greening the economy will also call for more workers educated in science,
technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM). The upside of this finding is that those jobs are not just
highly skilled, but also medium skilled, providing potential employment during a time when there are fewer
jobs for this group of workers.” (Colijn 2013, 2)
Future of Skills – Convergence or Polarization? (WP4)
“There are undoubtedly powerful forces pushing for more polarisation, particularly in the
labour market. In most European countries, destruction or lower growth of routine, middle
skill jobs can be observed. This has important implications also for the low-skilled as the
displaced middle-skilled individuals are more likely to compete and push them out. As
employers adjust job content and requirements to this fact, as well as the gradual
upskilling of the population, nominally ‘low-skilled’ jobs can be surprisingly demanding.
However, the demands can be manifested in very different forms, and the skill-intensity of
a position and its formal educational requirements are often wide apart.
This leads to reassessment of what is a skill and how people acquire it. We demonstrated
that there is increasing complexity in what a ‘low-skilled’ person is and how well (or poorly)
s/he fares in the labour market. The accelerating upskilling of populations in developed
countries points to a not-too-distant future where higher education will be somewhere
between a mass and universal phenomenon. At the same time, the importance of of
experience is likely to grow, with implications for the prospects of labour market entrants.”
(Beblavy and Veselkova 2014, 18)
Potential for refocusing of traditional welfare spending towards ‘social
investments’ – can they be made sustainable (green & social)? (WP5)
Social investment differs from traditional welfare states with a focus on passive spending in three ways:
1. Focus on societal development: the increasing and in many countries already high old-age dependency ratio,
increases the need for both an increase in labour market participation as to pay for social security and for a
higher fertility rate. Social investment focuses on providing services to reconcile work and care, reskilling and
more flexible jobs to help catering to different needs of (potential) workers.
2. Focus on enabling citizens: Traditional welfare states depart from the idea that a short-term benefit is
enough to solve problems such as unemployment. Yet, some unemployed might simply lack the right
qualification to find a job or long-term unemployment might deplete their skills. Social investment focuses on
training the unemployed, access to childcare as to enable mothers to reenter the labour market, access to
education as to help people gain the skills needed on the labour market.
3. Focus on long-term reduction of neediness instead of short-term mitigation: social investment is a long-term
strategy. Early investment in children’s education furthers their later development and positively influences
their chances in later life. Social investment regards human capital investment as a tool to reduce
intergenerational transmission of poverty. Whereas passive benefits rather focus on the reduction of poverty
via transfers, social investment stresses the need for enabling children to develop their full potential
independent of their social background. The traditional benefit-oriented welfare state focuses on short-term
mitigation of risks, while social investment is a longer-term strategy aimed at reducing the risk of future
neediness.
(p 2)
WELFARE TRANSORMATION AND WORK & FAMILY RECONCILATION: WHAT ROLE FOR SOCIAL
INVESTMENT IN EUROPEAN WELFARE STATES? VERENA DRÄBING NEUJOBS POLICY BRIEF NO.
D5.6
Potentials and pitfalls of social investments for the future …
Given the pressures to cut public spending, it is important to remember that societies have not ceased to age, nor has the number of
people in need of welfare to survive decreased. However, the toolbox of policymakers to address needs has become more varied in
the past decades, shifting away from benefits only to benefits with training and services in some parts of Europe. Some of those tools
might have long-lasting implications for productivity and growth. Since child poverty has proven to have considerable negative longterm effects [26-28], taking care of families is of vital importance for the future. Also, keeping skills from deterioration in times of
unemployment and low labour demand is important.
• Key points:
Countries with high investment in family policies are best able to reconcile work and care. The mix of flexible working time, universal
childcare services, and generous leave schemes provided by the Scandinavian countries seems to contribute to high female
employment.
Prior to the crisis, the Southern countries were already lagging behind in social investment in education, family policies and ALMPs.
Further spending cuts might increase this gap and have long-term implications for future growth prospects since education and
childcare are important for human capital development while female labour market participation will be vital in the future as to
financing pension schemes.
Increases in social investment are visible up to the crisis, especially in the continental and liberal countries, particularly the UK. Yet,
problems remain to reconcile work and care: (1) income related differences in the use of services persist, (2) lack of flexible working
time or ability to care for sick children predominantly employed in part-time, flexible and “atypical” jobs [22].
Low skills remain problematic: lowly skilled people are less likely to find jobs, lowly skilled women are more likely to quit their job
as to care for family members and lowly skilled are more likely to be poor. Consequently, it is important to keep up opportunities for
children of unfavourable backgrounds via education and childcare, as well as options for retraining for those unable to find
employment or to re-integrate women into the labour market. Of high importance for low skilled female employment are the costs of
public services. If childcare and elderly care is not affordable, low-skilled women are the first to stay at home to care. (p 10)
WELFARE TRANSORMATION AND WORK & FAMILY RECONCILATION: WHAT ROLE FOR SOCIAL
INVESTMENT IN EUROPEAN WELFARE STATES? VERENA DRÄBING NEUJOBS POLICY BRIEF NO.
D5.6
Long-run innovation potential can be fostered by
increased labour market flexibility – although
social concerns should be adressed as well (WP6)
• “First, relaxing employment protection legislation would be beneficial for innovation intensity particularly in
industries with a high propensity to adjust to industry-specific technological and market driven factors
through job reallocation.
• Second, relaxing the use of temporary contracts in industries with higher job reallocation or layoff
propensity is likely to pay off in terms of innovation intensity relatively more than reforming the employment
protection legislation for regular contracts.
• Third, labour market reforms such as relaxing employment protection regulations, are likely to affect
significantly innovation performance in the long-run only while their effect in the short-run is unlikely to be
sizable. Taken together our evidence suggests that, to the extent that enhancing innovation is a desirable
policy objective, targeted labour market deregulation, such as relaxing the use of temporary contracts in
industries with higher job reallocation or layoff propensity, could be advocated on the grounds of fostering
innovation the long-run.” (Murphy et al. 2013, p16)
• “While the focus […] has been on efficiency considerations, other policy objectives such as high employment
rates and a more equal income distribution are equally important. Policy choices often imply trade offs
which should be carefully considered in strategy and policy development. Any undesired effects of policies
designed to improve the flexibility of labour markets should be addressed by appropriate social protection
measures including income support and active labour market policies.” (Murphy et al. 2013, p16)
Health and care services at a crossroads? (WP7)
“i) […] labour force in the HSW sector is rapidly ageing;
ii) the younger generations of workers in HSW less often have a high level of
education compared with the older generations; and
iii) even workers with a medium level of education are usually not specifically
educated in health and welfare, although doctors and nurses, for example, do have
these levels of education.” (Sirovátka et al. 2013, 2)
“Given these circumstances, two spheres may be emerging in social services:
i) that of formal, more standardised, high-quality services provided by a relatively
highly qualified workforce; and
ii) that of hidden, semi-formal services of unknown quality provided by less
qualified people who are often neighbours or immigrant workers.” (ibid., 3)