Transcript occ102 - Homework Market

Research Paper Presentation
Jennifer L. Spade
English 102
May 5, 2004
Topic & Thesis Selection
Topic: Federal Reserve Board rate action.
Topic Selected: March 31, 2004; political &
educational interests; no change.
Thesis: The Fed Reserve Board should wait to
increase bank rates until we see a sustainable
job growth above 200,000 for a 6-month
composite plus other strong economic indicators.
Thesis Selected: April 7, 2004; political &
economic interests; no change.
Research Paper Structure
Introduction: Fed rates, from Wall St. to Main St.
Narration: job growth & inflation = rate increases.
Partition: March job growth could be a “false start,”
we need to wait for sustainable numbers.
Argument: prior Fed actions had real job growth &
inflation; not there yet.
Refutation: sharp rises in rates due to quick rise in
inflation; no due to low wages & high productivity.
Conclusion: Fed has time to wait for real jobs #’s.
Major Arguments
Raising rates prematurely could derail the economy
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Stunt job recovery
Reduce capital investment & hiring
Cool the red-hot housing market
Slow consumer spending, thereby reducing GDP
Negatively impact emerging (global) economies
Decreased consumer confidence
Inflation is still low - Fed has time to wait (August)?
Major Opposing Arguments
Economic indicators strong; jobs & retail sales but
inflation is rising, act now with minor increases
Response: March job growth could be a “false start.” Waiting a few months to
make certain will provide solid evidence of the health of the U.S. economy.
Waiting too long could cause sharp rate increases lessons from past (1994)
 7 fed fund rate increases in 12 months (3% to 6%)
 Too aggressive; crushed financial markets
Response: we don’t want to repeat actions taken in 1994, but the economic
conditions are not comparable -- productivity is strong, and wages are flat - both requiring time to adjust.
Source Analysis
Most Helpful
 BusinessWeek
 Associated Press
 Fed Chair testimony: 5/4
 April jobs report - to be
released 5/7 - crucial
Least Helpful
 Older publications
 Books
Research Lessons Learned
Select a topic not as fluid as Fed rate actions;
daily assessments of data can invalidate claim
Survey consumers for personal impact of claim
Began draft sooner
Interesting Discoveries
In researching the economic conditions and the
Fed actions, I feel confident in my understanding
of the subject matter and challenges faced by
Greenspan and Fed policymakers when trying to
keep the U.S. economy in balance.
Using a systematic approach to writing a
research paper decreased the likelihood of me
being overwhelmed and increased my chances
of finishing it.
Research Timeline
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Assignment
Hours Days
Topic Selection and Proposal
2
2
Single Source Summary & Analysis
3
1
Annotated Bibliography
13
14
Formal Outline
7
3
Presentation
4
2
Rough Draft(s)
Pending Pending
Final Draft
Pending Pending
?
When Fed Chair Alan Greenspan speaks, we listen!
Good news for now, no change in Fed rates.