Transcript Leadership Austin Future Flow

Future Flow
Derek Woodgate
PREPARED FOR
From Dystopia to Plutopia
NOVEMBER, 2010
Discontinuous change
"The future is not fixed, but it is
a destination that can be
reached if we pursue a sustained
dialogue like the- one that you
will commence today, and act on
what we hear and what we
learn.”
- Barack Hussein Obama II, President of
the United States of America
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Fear of the future
2006
 Two-thirds of US consumers believe
the future will be worse for their
children and grandchildren (CMI, 2007)
 Economic meltdown, resource scarcity,
war, climate stability, terrorism and
security, population growth, epidemic,
civil rights, robotics, food supply,
natural disasters, ethics, migration,
education….
2010
 911, Katrina, avian flu, Enron, Banking
bailouts, illegal immigration, cloning,
globalization, Iraq War, An
inconvenient Truth, school massacres,
Tsunami, demise of major corporations
and the new economy, tech takeover…
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America’s third world
 The number of
Americans who see
themselves among the
"have-nots" of society
has doubled over the
past two decades, from
17% in 1988 to 34%
today.
U.S. Government Says
one in six (45 Million)
Americans Below
Poverty Sept. 2010
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Facing your fears
“The greatest obstacle we encounter with
stress and anxiety is the fear of the future. This
fear has always been surging in the hearts and
minds of man… It is important to decide what
you are going to do with your fear and selfdoubt around issues of your future. Will it be
the foundation of your future? Or will you
transform its energy into new power to
augment a future that can resolve your
negativity and fulfil your dreams and desires?“
- Michael Patrick Bovenes
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The fear factor
-World population should stabilize at about
12.4 billion in 2035 or 14 billion people in 2100
from 6.5 billion today
- Increasing need for water - billion cubics in
1995, 3300 B in in 2020
- World cereals demand - 6 Trillion Kcal in
1970 to 25 T Kcal
- Decreasing sea thickness; 40% in 40 years gone in next 50 (?)
- Lack of equity amongst social groups
- Number of known terrorist organizations: 154
By the middle of the century 200 million may
be permanently displaced due to rising sea
levels, heavier floods and drought (The Stern
Report)
 Environmental refugees forecast to rise
from 30M in 2004 to 50M in 2010 and 150M
by 2050 (Worldwatch Insititute)
 By 2080, 3.5 billion people will be at risk
from severe water shortages and drought
Global warming could contribute to more
than 300,000 deaths and 10 million illnesses
annually by 2030 (World Health Organization
and the University of Wisconsin at Madison)
 By 2080, Climate change could bring major
water shortages for over a Billion in Asia /
South America and threaten 1.1Bn to 3.2Bn
people globally
 The World Bank estimates that demand for
food will rise by 50 percent by 2030,
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What a difference a decade makes!!!!
“Now is the time to choose – The present
trends in the United States show that the
pessimistic scenario is rapidly upon us
unless we soon shift our educational
priorities and cultural goals. The optimistic
scenario is completely realizable if such
changes are made now. The window of
opportunity is in the decade of the 1990s.
If we do not choose, our children may not
be able to have such choice.”
From Gordon L. Anderson’s chapter The United States in 2044
(page 251), The World of 2044 – Technological Development
and the Future of Society, edited by Charles Sheffield, Marcelo
Alonso, Morton A. Kaplan (PWPA, 1994).
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Future Flow 2010
 Future Flow is about
creating a path towards
our anticipation for a
positive future. The
book deals with
creating the future we
want and expect in a
world where our media
and frequently even our
realities enslave our
minds with visions of
impending doom.
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High impact Challenges and concerns

Economic meltdown

Lack of equality amongst social groups / poverty

Climate change, Resource scarcity and sustainability

Terrorism and Wars

Emerging technologies (cloning, bioengineering, etc.)

Population explosion and aging

Food supply

Natural disasters

Epidemics

Ethics

Immigration & migration

Education

Health

Social disruption

Transformation of humankind
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Stairway to Heaven
For every challenge there seems to be a solution:
 Nanotech for energy efficiencies
 Fuel cells and renewable energy
 Human augmentation, cognition and upskilling
 Graphene replacing chips / neuro / quantum computing
 Photovoltaics and eco cities
 Alternative habitats
 Food substitution and virtual water
 Data walls and complex networked communities
 Even transhumanism and the Singularity
Then, there is the other reality….
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Economic Meltdown: What the hell happened?
 “Dr. Doom” - Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital in 2006:
- “too much consumption and borrowing and not enough production
and savings…economy 70 percent consumption, you can’t address
those imbalances without a recession.”
- from January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2008, Americans lost $6.9 trillion in
wealth in the stock markets. Gravest economic crisis since the Great
Depression.
 Greed is seen to have been at the centre of the storm. Greed,
supported by slack regulation that had its origin in excesses in the
U.S. housing and mortgage markets
- toxic loans and foreclosures.
- collapse of the US sub-prime mortgage market
- 10% unemployment (projected 8% in 2014)
- $13 trillion debt (Public debt to GDP debt ratio)
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Economic Meltdown: What the hell happened?
 Dynamism has been in decline for a decade - we just did
not notice (due to housing bubble)
 Stifling patent system
 Quarterly results focus vs. long-term value creation
 Financial system averse to funding business innovation
Edmund Phelps and Leo Tilman (Harvard Business Review)
Top 1% of Americans saw their real income rise 700%
between 1980 and 2007 while the real income of the
median family increased only 22%.
Top executives received 440 times as much as the average
person in the bottom half earned, nearly doubling the gap
from 1980.
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Economic Meltdown: What the Hell Happened?
 Austin - the third most recession proof city in the U.S. The
Brookings Institute analyzes the health of America’s 100 largest
metropolitan economies, or is it?
The Great recession is over
Markets aren’t efficient
W-Shaped Recovery
Bank Lending Won't Come Back soon
Dollar Decline
Inflation Will Be Controlled
Uncertainty Will Create Volatility
High unemployment to stay
For every one-percentage-point
increase in the national
unemployment rate, the starting
income of new graduates fell by as
much as 7 percent. – Lisa Kahn, Yale
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What’s in a Dream?
 Back Britain – IMF bail-out
 The Revolutions of 1968
 16 years under communism in Ex-Yugoslavia
 The break-up of states
 The dot-com boom and bust
 The US economic meltdown
 “The Chinese Dream”
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So what about the American Dream?
Life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness?
 Redefine our social values
 Community vs. the individual
 Eradicate U.S. ”third world”
 Real cost of sustainability
 Reconsider “hyper capitalism”
 Social projects
 Rediscover the intangibles
 Leverage “American” skills in entrepreneurship
 Look for unique innovation
 Avoid protectionism
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Understanding the value of a dystopia
“You must have chaos
within you to create a
dancing star.”
- Frederic Nietzsche
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Shift from a Dystopia to Plutopia
 Subvert assumptions
 Peel away the surface – experience the outcome
 Revisit values and signifiers
 Play with fracture, impact points and disruption
 Reconstruct the dystopian reality, paradoxes, hybrids
 Change perspective and conceptual relevance
 Add events and potential wildcards
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Create you own Plutopia
It’s not about
predicting the future,
but creating it.
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