Transcript Economic Forum Presentation Slides, October 2015

ONS Economic Forum
Email:
[email protected]
Twitter: @ONS
#ONSeconomy
Website: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/about-ons/getinvolved/events/events/economic-forum/index.html
WIFI code for Barber Surgeons’ Hall: C897139327
ONS Economic Forum
15 October 2015
1
ONS Economic Forum – October 2015
Agenda
09.45
Introduction & welcome
10.00
Sir Charlie Bean
10.30
Labour Market Flows
11.00
Refreshment break
11.30
What’s New
12.00
What’s Next
2
Introduction and welcome
Jonathan Athow, Deputy National Statistician for Economic Statistics
ONS Economic Forum
15 October 2015
3
Independent Review of UK
Economic Statistics
SIR CHARLES BEAN
Terms of Reference
• To assess the UK’s future statistics needs in particular relating to
the challenges of measuring the modern economy;
• To assess the effectiveness of the Office for National Statistics
(ONS) in delivering those statistics, including the extent to which
the ONS makes use of relevant data and emerging data-science
techniques;
• While fully protecting the independence of the UK national
statistics, consider whether the current governance framework
best supports the production of world-class economic statistics.
4
Labour Market Flows
David Freeman, Deputy Director of Labour Market
ONS Economic Forum
15 October 2015
5
Latest labour market data
Employment (June to August 2015)
31.12 million
↑
140,000 (16 and over)
73.6%
↑
0.2
(16 to 64)
Unemployment (June to August 2015)
1.77 million
↓
79,000
5.4%
↓
0.3
(16 and over)
(16 and over)
Average earnings (June to August 2015)
3.0%
↑
0.1
2.8%
↓
0.1
(Total pay)
(Regular pay)
Contents
• How do we track people through the labour
market?
• How does this compare with the headline
statistics?
• What can flows show us about how the labour
market is working?
UK Labour Force Survey:
quarterly sample structure
JM14
Wave
1
Wave
2
Wave
3
Wave
4
Wave
5
AJ14
Wave
1
Wave
2
Wave
3
Wave
4
Wave
5
JS14
Wave
1
Wave
2
Wave
3
Wave
4
Wave
5
OD14
Wave
1
Wave
2
Wave
3
Wave
4
Wave
5
JM15
Wave
1
Wave
2
Wave
3
Wave
4
Wave
5
Labour Market Flows Statistics
Net quarterly flows from LFS Longitudinals differ from the
changes in quarterly aggregates from main LFS, because:
• smaller sample: just people aged 16 to 64 present in two successive
quarters
• different weighting methods
• excludes imputed non-responders retained in quarterly LFS
• published flows seasonally adjusted independently;
....but patterns over time are very similar
Labour Market Flows Statistics
Changes in quarterly LFS employment compared with net flow from longitudinal (people
aged 16-64)
Labour Market Flows Statistics
Employment level (age 16-64)
Labour Market Flows Statistics
Labour Market Flows Statistics
Unemployment level (age 16-64)
Labour Market Flows Statistics
Labour Market Flows Statistics
Labour Market Flows Statistics
Labour Market Flows Statistics
Labour Market Flows Statistics
Summary
• Net changes in levels hide larger movements
• Downturn did not affect people moving into
employment
• ...but did affect people losing jobs
• Recent increase in people moving jobs
• ...impact on pay growth?
Future Publications
• Analysis of these flows will feature in
upcoming editions of the ONS Economic
Review
• Article on trends in self employment planned
for publication in November
• Eurostat flows release on 26 October
• Next update 11 November
• July to September 2015
ONS Economic Forum
Email:
[email protected]
Twitter: @ONS
#ONSeconomy
Website: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/about-ons/getinvolved/events/events/economic-forum/index.html
WIFI code for Barber Surgeons’ Hall: C897139327
ONS Economic Forum
15 October 2015
23
What’s New
Darren Morgan, Deputy Director of National Accounts Co-ordination
Peter Patterson, Deputy Chief Economic Adviser
ONS Economic Forum
15 October 2015
24
Blue and Pink Book 2015
Darren Morgan, Deputy Director of National Accounts Co-ordination
ONS Economic Forum
15 October 2015
25
What am I going to cover?
• GDP
• 1997 to Q2 2015
• Current Price
• Chained Volume Measures (CVM)
• Balance of Payments
• 1997 to Q2 2015
• current prices
26
GDP
1997 to Q2 2015
ONS Economic Forum
15 October 2015
27
GDP CP : revisions to annual levels
•
Level revised between -£2.8bn to +£24.5bn per year
•
Level raised on average by 0.4%
•
Average increase £2.6bn 1997-2011...but larger in recent periods £9.8bn (2012), £21.8bn (2013), £24.5bn (2014)
£m
2000000
1800000
1600000
1400000
1200000
1000000
800000
600000
400000
200000
0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2014 Current Price Estimates
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Final Blue Book 2015 Current Price Estimates
28
GDP CP: annual levels, contributions to revisions
£ bn
35.0
Contributions to final CP GDP level change at BB15 (1997 to 2014)
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
-5.0
-10.0
-15.0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
GNI : improvements for ESA 1995 compliance
Gross Fixed Capital Formation
Transport for London Reclassification
Government Alignment
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Network Rail Reclassification
Local Government Pensions
Alcohol and Tobacco
Latest available update to external data sources
2009
2010
2011
2012
Smuggling
CPIH Alignment
Insurance Industry
Total nominal GDP revision
2013
29
2014
CP GDP: annual levels, contributions to revisions
• GNI: upward revisions 1997-2008 largely due to improved estimates of concealed income
• GNI: larger upward revisions 2009-2014, concealed income + under coverage of small businesses
• GFCF: improved estimates for stamp duty, DIY and R&D tax credits etc.
• Insurance: correction to the change in provisions for unpaid claims series
• New data: switch to LFS from work force jobs in CoE and new wages & salaries data from HMRC
£ bn
35.0
Contributions to final CP GDP level change at BB15 (1997 to 2014)
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
-5.0
-10.0
-15.0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
GNI : improvements for ESA 1995 compliance
Gross Fixed Capital Formation
Transport for London Reclassification
Government Alignment
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Network Rail Reclassification
Local Government Pensions
Alcohol and Tobacco
Latest available update to external data sources
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Smuggling
CPIH Alignment
Insurance Industry
Total nominal GDP revision
2013
2014
30
GDP CP : revisions to annual growth
•
•
Between 1998 and 2014, CP GDP annual growth revised by a range per year of -0.4pp to +0.7pp
Avg growth over same period remains unrevised though at 4.1% per year
%
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
Revision
2014 Current Price Estimates
Final Blue Book 2015 Current Price Estimates
31
GDP CVM : revisions to annual growth
•
Avg growth 1998-2014 now 2.0% rather than 2.1% (actual revision is -0.02ppts!)
•
Most interest has been stronger growth in 2011 (0.4%), 2012 (0.5%) and 2013 (0.5%)
•
Very similar to current price picture
%
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
-4.0
-5.0
Revision
2014 Chained Volume Measure Estimates
Final Blue Book 2015 Chained Volume Measure Estimates
32
CVM GDP: revisions to quarterly growth
•
•
%
2.0
Avg revision Q2 1997 to Q2 2015 is 0.0 ppts
Avg absolute revision over same period is 0.11 ppts
1.5
1.0
0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
-2.5
Revision
2014 Chained Volume Measure Estimates
Final 2015 Chained Volume Measure Estimates
33
2015Q2
2014Q4
2014Q2
2013Q4
2013Q2
2012Q4
2012Q2
2011Q4
2011Q2
2010Q4
2010Q2
2009Q4
2009Q2
2008Q4
2008Q2
2007Q4
2007Q2
2006Q4
2006Q2
2005Q4
2005Q2
2004Q4
2004Q2
2003Q4
2003Q2
2002Q4
2002Q2
2001Q4
2001Q2
2000Q4
2000Q2
1999Q4
1999Q2
1998Q4
1998Q2
1997Q4
-0.5
1997Q2
0.0
So where does that leave us?
•
2008/09 downturn same length, and virtually same depth, now -6.1% was -6.0%
•
Strength of the recovery has been revised up:
 Back to pre-downturn peak in Q2 2013, one quarter earlier than previously
estimated
 GDP now 5.9% above pre-downturn peak, was 5.2%
•
However, recovery remains weak by historical standards
34
Balance of Payments
1997 to Q2 2015
ONS Economic Forum
15 October 2015
35
Current Account Balance
£ billion
20.0
0.0
-20.0
-40.0
-60.0
-80.0
-100.0
Other
Update to bonds
FDI benchmark
HMRC related
Insurance revision
Cross border
Previously pub
Latest
Total revision
-120.0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
36
2014
Current Account Balance as % of GDP
Per cent
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6
-7
Revisions
Previously published
Latest
-8
37
International Investment Position
£ billion
300.0
200.0
100.0
0.0
-100.0
-200.0
-300.0
-400.0
Cross border
FDI benchmarking
Other
Previously published
Latest
Total revision
-500.0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
38
So where does that leave us?
• Current Account
– pretty much where we were ....although improvement through 2014/15
• IIP
– as you were .....apart from some improvement in 2013
39
............and finally ‘the link’
All communication for the Blue and Pink Books can be found at:
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/method-quality/specific/economy/nationalaccounts/changes-to-national-accounts/blue-book-and-pink-book-2015changes/index.html
40
What’s New
Peter Patterson, Deputy Chief Economic Adviser
ONS Economic Forum
15 October 2015
41
BB15: income components of GDP
Revisions to the contributions of income components to GDP growth, percentage points
1.2
1.0
0.8
Percentage points
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Statistical discrepancy (income)
Taxes on products & production less subsidies
Other income (inc mixed income)
Gross operating surplus of corporations
Compensation of employees
GDP
42
BB15: expenditure components of GDP
Revisions to the contributions of expenditure components to GDP
growth, percentage points
1.2
Percentage points
0.8
0.4
0.0
-0.4
-0.8
-1.2
1998
1999
HHFCE
2000
2001
GGFCE
2002
2003
GCF
2004
2005
NPISH
2006
2007
Exports
2008
2009
Imports
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Total revision
43
Growth driven by domestic demand
Contributions to quarterly GDP growth, percentage points
2.0
Domestic demand (C+I+G)
1.5
Net trade
GDP
Percentage points
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2
20132015 ave
44
Expenditure components of GDP
Index nos, Q1 2008 = 100
115
110
105
100
95
90
HH and NIPISH
Government
85
GDP
GFCF
80
Exports
Imports
75
2008 Q1
2009 Q1
2010 Q1
2011 Q1
2012 Q1
2013 Q1
2014 Q1
2015 Q1
45
Indicators of economic well-being
Index nos, 2008Q1 = 100
108
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
106
GDP per head
104
Real Net National Disposable Income (RNNDI)
per head
102
100
98
96
94
92
90
88
2008 Q1
2009 Q1
2010 Q1
2011 Q1
2012 Q1
2013 Q1
2014 Q1
2015 Q1
46
Contributions to real income growth
Contributions to real household disposable income growth,
change on same period a year earlier, percentage points
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
2008
2009
Inflation
Other labour income
2010
Net Benefits
W&S
2011
2012
Taxes
RHDI
2013
2014
2015
Net property income
47
Household + NPISH cash saving ratio
Per cent of households’ disposable incomes, Blue Book 2015 basis
48
Sectoral financial balances
% of GDP
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
Government
-8
Households
-10
PNFCs
-12
-14
1997 Q1
RoW
1999 Q1
2001 Q1
2003 Q1
2005 Q1
2007 Q1
2009 Q1
2011 Q1
2013 Q1
2015 Q1
49
%
Services lead output per hour
growth
Contributions to growth in output per hour,
cumulative changes since 2008Q1, percentage points
5
Allocation Effect
Financial Services
Manufacturing
Whole Economy
4
Other services
Construction
Agric., & Non-Manuf. Prod.
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
50
Manufacturing and services productivity
Index nos, 2012 = 100
Manufacturing
170
Services
120
160
110
150
140
100
130
120
90
110
100
80
90
80
70
70
Output (GVA)
Output per hour
Hours
60
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
60
51
Unit labour cost growth picks up
Percentage points
10
Whole economy unit labour costs and their composition,
% change on a year earlier
Output per hour (sign reversed)
Labour costs per hour
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Average annual rates of ULC growth
1998Q1-2007Q4
+3.0%
2010Q2-2015Q2
+0.3%
52
Labour share of income
Compensation of employees (% of GDP)
Total labour incomes (% of GDP)
65
65
60
60
55
55
50
45
50
40
45
35
30
2015 Q1
2011 Q1
2007 Q1
2003 Q1
1999 Q1
1995 Q1
1991 Q1
1987 Q1
1983 Q1
1979 Q1
1975 Q1
1971 Q1
1967 Q1
1963 Q1
1959 Q1
1955 Q1
40
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Q1
Q1
Q1
Q1
Q1
Q1
Q1
Q1
Q1
Q1
Self-employed labour income
Employers' social conts
Wages & salaries
53
Business Statistics User event:
How e-commerce is changing the shape of
business
ONS Economic Forum
15 October 2015
54
Total value of website & EDI sales in
the UK
55
Proportion of businesses’ turnover from
e-commerce and website sales (2013)
56
How does online purchasing by individuals
in the UK compare to other countries?
Percentage of individuals who purchased online in last 12 months, 2014
57
What’s Next
Nick Vaughan, Director of National Accounts and Economic Statistics
ONS Economic Forum
15 October 2015
58
Business Demography
ONS Economic Forum
15 October 2015
59
Business Demography
• Rich source of data on businesses:
– Births
– Deaths
– 1 to 5 year Survival
• By industry and geography
• 2014 published on 24 November
60
Background
• Harmonised EU methodology
• Eurostat/OECD manual specifies methods and
requirements
• Data taken from the business register
61
Latest Statistics 2013
62
By Region
63
By Industry
64
Detailed data
• Detailed industry SIC 3 digit
• Detailed geography : county
• Available in supporting Excel spreadsheet
• Next release : 2014 on 24 November
65
Flow of Funds
ONS Economic Forum
15 October 2015
66
Flow of Funds Project Update
The UK Flow of Funds Project: introduction, progress and
future work
including experimental whom-to-whom statistics on loans
ONS and BoE joint
article and
experimental
statistics
13 July
Flow of Funds included as part of the Enhanced Financial
Accounts Project
ONS Spending
Review 2015 bid
4 September
Assessment of available whom-to-whom information in the
UK financial accounts
including experimental whom-to-whom statistics on other
financial instruments
ONS and BoE joint
article and
experimental
statistics
November
[email protected]
feedback welcome
any time
67
loans by sector, Q4 2013
PNFC = private non-financial corporations
MFI = monetary financial institutions
OFI = financial insts other than MFIs and ICPF
Source: ONS experimental statistics
ICPF = insurance corps and pension funds
CG = central government
LG = local government
HH+NPISH = households and non-profit
institutions serving households
RoW = rest of the world.
68
House Price Index
ONS Economic Forum
15 October 2015
69
House price index development: background
• Cross Government Working Group looking at the development of a
single UK house price index
• Feasibility study in 2014 followed by user consultation later in the year
to share proposal for new index
• User consultation well received (including user events across UK)
• Consultation did raise some areas where methodology could be refined
70
House price index development: next steps
• New index will bring together data sources from Land Registry,
Registers of Scotland, Valuation Office Agency and Land & Property
Services Northern Ireland
• Consistent house prices/price index will be produced at a UK, region
and Local Authority level, broken down by:
• Cash/Mortgage
• Type of buyer (first time buyer/existing owner)
• Property type (new or old)
• Type of dwelling (detached, semi etc.)
71
Next steps
• Currently finalising data sharing agreements and provision of data
supply
• Once data supply is online, the methodology will be finalised and test
production will commence (late 2015)
• Paper to be published November/December 2015 detailing the final
model and initial transition planning for users
• Further User transition details to be published early 2016, including
user events
• Parallel run in early 2016 until live publication in mid-2016 (provisional
date)
• New index will replace the current ONS and Land registry HPIs
72
Foreign Direct Investment
ONS Economic Forum
15 October 2015
73
Primary Income
20
15
Direct Investment
Portfolio Investment
Other Investment
Reserve Assets
Compensation of Employees
Other Primary Income
Total Primary Income
10
£ Billion
5
0
-5
-10
-15
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Q1
Q2
74
Areas of research
Publication: Foreign Direct Investment - An analysis of Foreign Direct Investment - the key
driver of the recent deterioration in the UK’s Current Account (30th October)
1.
2.
Overview of recent changes in primary income and FDI
FDI by economic region
•
•
•
3.
Identifying the UK’s main economic regions in terms of FDI and establishing whether deteriorations occur broadly
across these regions
Understanding whether changes in FDI reflect defences in economic performance between the UK and the rest of
the world
Establishing the ultimate destination of the investing parent/investment
FDI by size of investment
•
4.
Determining whether changes in FDI are similar across different sized investment and their impact on primary
income
New & existing FDI values
•
5.
Understanding whether changes in FDI reflect changes in the stock of existing FDI or new investments
Industry analysis
•
6.
Identifying the main industries contributing to the decline in net FDI earnings, such as the Mining & Quarrying,
Information & Communication and Wholesale industries
Currency fluctuations
•
7.
Estimating how currency fluctuations have affected FDI over the 2008-economic downturn and more recently
Rates of return distribution
•
Understanding how the distribution of rates of return has evolved over time
75
Web scraped price data
ONS Economic Forum
15 October 2015
76
Data collection, benefits and limitations
• Prices for 35 CPI items collected from 3 online retailers:
•
•
•
•
Daily collection (around 6,500 price quotes)
Collects price, product name and discount type
Period: June 2014 onwards
Benefits
- more detail
- higher frequency
- lower cost
• Limitations
- Currently covers 3 on-line supermarkets (CPI covers multiple stores across country)
- All prices are scraped regardless of expenditure (CPI collectors select representative
items)
- Impractical to manually check prices and classifications
77
- Changes in product descriptions create matching challenges
Food &non-alcoholic beverages
weekly indices – high frequency
78
78
Food & non-alcoholic beverages
monthly indices – comparison with CPI
79
79
Next steps
• Machine learning solutions to data cleaning and classification
• Strategy for extreme price changes and imputing missing data
• Refine price index number methodology
• Expand the web scrapers to collect additional CPI items, from
additional stores
• ONS are applying for funding from Eurostat to continue the work.
80
HMRC Turnover Data
ONS Economic Forum
15 October 2015
81
Understanding the data
•
Monthly feed from HMRC to IDBR of VAT returns at VAT registration level. This
includes both turnover and expenditure data
•
Includes all monthly, quarterly and annual VAT returns delivered in the month
including revisions to previous periods. This data is from 2007 onwards on a UK
SIC2007 industrial classification.
– (Approx. 10% monthly, 89% quarterly, <1% annual)
•
At 5 months after the reference period the dataset has a VAT return for
approximately 1.7m businesses within the economy
•
HMRC (VAT) Turnover is NOT the amount of VAT, and similar to Monthly Business
Survey turnover definition:
VAT turnover - ‘total value of sales and all other outputs excluding VAT’
Monthly Business Survey -‘what was the value of this business’s turnover excluding VAT’ .
•
Expenditure data is the ‘value excluding VAT of all your inputs (purchases of goods
and services)’ so this includes capital and non-capital inputs.
82
HMRC potential
•
•
MBS has a monthly sample size of 32,000 for production and services industries.
The long term plan is to retain MBS ‘fully enumerated’ businesses (approximately14,000
questionnaires per month)
Advantages:
controlled by ONS (ability to validate and response chase)
timely statistical sample
‘true’ monthly data
reports export turnover
•
Could exclude some or all of the sampled businesses and use HMRC turnover data. i.e.
medium and smaller businesses (approximately 18,000 questionnaires per month). Need
to investigate on an industry by industry basis
•
Improved regional data - capability to produce HMRC turnover at NUTS1 level and below.
•
Qualitative improvements to short-term indicators:
Value added and margins
•
Further information to assist:
1. Intermediate consumption
2. Quarterly supply and use
3. Double deflation
83
Challenges
• Further work to improve cleaning and validation
• Analysis of micro-data from HMRC/MBS/ABS
• Timeliness from a short-term output indicator perspective. Need to consider
implications for the Short Term Statistics regulation
• Good data availability by GDP M3, but significant missing response for GDP
M1 (t+27 days).
• The tables below illustrate data availability for the 2014Q1 and 2014Q2 GDP
estimates based on HMRC turnover as at the latest monthly vintage of data
(September 2015 = 100)
2014Q1
Month 1
Month 2
Month 3
2014Q2
Month 1
Month 2
Month 3
Jan 2014
49.0
86.2
101.7
Apr 2014
49.0
89.9
100.2
Feb 2014
30.0
75.3
97.9
May 2014
31.1
80.0
98.6
Mar 2014
0.4
58.8
88.1
Jun 2014
0.0
62.0
86.2
84
Benefits and further information
•
•
•
•
Cost savings for business - reduction in compliance burden
Cost savings for ONS - reduction in MBS sample
Improvement in terms of coverage of the economy.
Improvement in the quality of National Accounts e.g. purchases data
could help towards double deflation and quarterly supply and use
• Potentially transform regional capability of short-term indicators and
National Accounts
• Data warehouse of HMRC turnover, expenditure, exports, imports and
PAYE is potentially significant for big data – technology implication
Further information:
Feasibility study into the use of HMRC turnover data within Short-term Output Indicators and
National Accounts (14th August 2015)
Exploitation of HMRC VAT data (7th October 2015)
85
Measuring Consumer Prices
ONS Economic Forum
15 October 2015
86
Measuring Consumer Prices
The options for change consultation
• Consultation closed 15 September
• Currently summarising the views raised
• Summary of responses will be published by early
December
• The Authority Board will consider these responses
carefully before issuing its response to the
consultation in the first part of 2016
87