Transcript The Slovak emission projections process

Slovak emission projections
process
Stanislava Morová
Slovak hydrometeorological institute, Bratislava, regional centre Banská
Bystrica
SLOVAK HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE
SLOVENSKÝ HYDROMETEOROLOGICKÝ ÚSTAV
Topics
 General about Slovak projections for energy
sector
 Input data
 Splitting input data
 Projections after 2030
 Uncertainties after 2030
 Summary
SLOVAK HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE
SLOVENSKÝ HYDROMETEOROLOGICKÝ ÚSTAV
General about Slovak projections for energy sector
 Emissionprojections arepreparing for all three
scenarios (W
OM,W
M andW
AM) and for all relevant sectors,
 Projections for energy sector arepreparing by model
MESSAGE except NFR 1A4b (Residential) and NFR
1A3 (Transport),
SLOVAK HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE
SLOVENSKÝ HYDROMETEOROLOGICKÝ ÚSTAV
Input data
 Inventory:
 Dbase National Emission Information System (NEIS):
energy (NFR1 except 1A3) and industry sector (NFR2),

SHMÚ: transport (NFR 1A3), emissions NM VOC and
PM10 and PM2.5,
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National experts: for other sectors like agriculture,
waste, etc.
Splitting input data
SLOVAK HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE
SLOVENSKÝ HYDROMETEOROLOGICKÝ ÚSTAV
 First step: splitting on ETS sources and non-ETS
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sources
Second step: classification of ETS sources
Third step: classification of non-ETS sources
Fourth step: aggregation offuels
Fifth step: calculation aggregated emission factors
Sixth step: Share offuels for energy and technology
Seventh step: splitting heat values for each emission for
each NFR category in model MESSAGE format
SLOVAK HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE
SLOVENSKÝ HYDROMETEOROLOGICKÝ ÚSTAV
First step: splitting on ETS sources and non-ETS
sources
 ETS sources: these sources are in National
allocationplan and via internet (www.co2.dexia.sk).
Each operator included in ETS has toprepare every year
report on CO2 emissions to Ministry of Environment SR
 Non-ETS sources: All sources from dbase NEIS
minus ETS sources
SLOVAK HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE
SLOVENSKÝ HYDROMETEOROLOGICKÝ ÚSTAV
Second step: classification of ETS sources
 Sources included in ETS are divided on:
 some concrete operators,
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NFR 1A1a heatplants,
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NFR 1A1a only used NG,
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other ETS sources.
Third step: classification of non-ETS sources
SLOVAK HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE
SLOVENSKÝ HYDROMETEOROLOGICKÝ ÚSTAV
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Sources included in non-ETS are divided on:
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NFR 1A1a used only NG,
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NFR 1A1a other,
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other NFR codes which are divided on NACE code:
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Agriculture – 01, 02,
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Mining and quarrying – 05, 07, 08 and 09,
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Food – 10, 11 and 12,
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Textile – 13, 14 and 15,
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W
ood - 16,
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Pulpandpaper – 17, 18 and 58,
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Chemistry – 19, 20, 21 and 22,
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Inorganic chemistry - 23,
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Manufacture of metal - 24,
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Construction – 25, 27, 28, 29, 30 and 35,
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Industry – 31 and 32,
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Other – other NACE codes.
SLOVAK HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE
SLOVENSKÝ HYDROMETEOROLOGICKÝ ÚSTAV
Fourth step: aggregation of fuels
 Dbase NEIS include 69 types offuels,
 69 types offuels are aggregated to 21 types offuels,
For example:
(1) Hard coal = anthracite + hard coal CZ + hard coal
PL +patent fuel like eco-fuel
(2) Heavy fuel oil = heavy fuel oil low sulphur + heavy fuel oil
middle sulphur + heavy fuel oil high sulphur
SLOVAK HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE
SLOVENSKÝ HYDROMETEOROLOGICKÝ ÚSTAV
Fifth step: calculation aggregated emission factors
 Total emissions = energy emissions + technology
emissions
 Calculation of energy and technology heat (Q)
Qener,tech = sum offuelsener,tech/3.6/8.76
 Calculation of aggregated emission factor (energy,
technology)
EFagr = EM (t)/Qener,tech
SLOVAK HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE
SLOVENSKÝ HYDROMETEOROLOGICKÝ ÚSTAV
Sixth step: Share of fuels for energy and technology
 Calculation of maximum amount of aggregated fuels for
energy and technology,
 The same calculation for energy and technology:
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For example table for calculation offuel share:
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After fuel share calculation, the data are taken to
MESSAGE format
SLOVAK HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE
SLOVENSKÝ HYDROMETEOROLOGICKÝ ÚSTAV
Seventh step: splitting heat values for each emission for
each NFR category in model MESSAGE format
 Table for each emissions for each NFR category
 From this table are data taken to MESSAGE format
SLOVAK HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE
SLOVENSKÝ HYDROMETEOROLOGICKÝ ÚSTAV
Projections after 2030 (1)
NOxprojections in Gg
SO2projections in Gg
SLOVAK HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE
SLOVENSKÝ HYDROMETEOROLOGICKÝ ÚSTAV
Projections after 2030 (2)
NH3projections in Gg
NM VOCprojections in Gg
PM2.5projections in Gg
SLOVAK HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE
SLOVENSKÝ HYDROMETEOROLOGICKÝ ÚSTAV
Uncertainties after 2030
 Uncertainties are in the beginning, and we have only
one national expert for uncertainties
 In thepresent time weprepare uncertainties only for
GHG emissions
Summary
SLOVAK HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE
SLOVENSKÝ HYDROMETEOROLOGICKÝ ÚSTAV
 SHMÚprepare emissionprojections by bottom-up
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methodology,
For energy and industry sector it is used model
MESSAGE,
It is very dificult to splitting data for model MESSAGE format,
All data arepreparing in MS Excel and than they are
transported to the model MESSAGE,
Afterpreparing data we takepolicies and measures and run
modeling for scenariosW
OM,W
M andW
AM,
Results from model MESSAGE are again transported to MS
Excel forpreparing standard formats in NFR codes.
SLOVAK HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE
SLOVENSKÝ HYDROMETEOROLOGICKÝ ÚSTAV
Thank you for your attention.
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