Transcript economics

Public Perception of
Mars Mission Economics:
Separating Fact from Fiction
Brian Enke
SwRI
Boulder, CO
[email protected]
GOALS
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Put our investment in manned
spaceflight into proper
CONTEXT.
Provide "Take-Home" points to
assist with damage control.
Outline
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Public Perception
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Hypothetical Missions
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NASA Budget
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US Government Budget
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US Economic Activity
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Apollo
ICR Poll for the Associated Press
(7/28/2003)
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Margin of error: +/- 3%
75% believe the space program is a good investment!
Only 49% support sending humans to Mars (vs 42% opp).
Implication: Many people believe a manned Mars mission
would not be a good investment, i.e. too expensive.
Quote: "We can go there after all the things wrong on Earth
are fixed. I'm totally against any of it. It's a total waste of
money we need for our kids, for illnesses, could put
somebody's kids through college, could cure so many
diseases."
Zogby International - Research Poll
(7/3/03)
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800 Americans surveyed randomly, asked 23 questions
Margin of Error +/- 3.5%
69% give NASA positive job performance ratings
83% believe a manned space program is important!
54% would not resume the space shuttle program until "the
future of the space program has been re-defined"
59% believe humans will set foot upon Mars within 25 years!
(18% < 10 years)
Zogby International - Research Poll
(7/3/03)
HOWEVER......
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24% believe the US should end its
manned space program altogether
Zogby International - Research Poll
(7/3/03)
Question 2: What percentage of the federal budget do you
think is spent each year on the nation's manned and
unmanned space programs?
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Less than 1%
1% to 5%
5% to 10%
More than 10%
Not sure
Zogby International - Research Poll
(7/3/03)
Question 2: What percentage of the federal budget do you
think is spent each year on the nation's manned and
unmanned space programs?
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Less than 1%
1% to 5%
5% to 10%
More than 10%
Not sure
20%
37%
19%
17%
8%
(76% would keep funding unchanged or increase it)
"The manned space program is expensive!!"
Where does this perception come from?
Politicians??
Media??
Space Community??
Case Study:
IS NASA LOST IN SPACE?
TOO MANY LIVES AND DOLLARS HAVE ALREADY BEEN WASTED
(John Baer, New York Times editorial, 2/3/2003)
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IT'S TIME TO think about pulling the plug.
What have 42 years of astronomically expensive manned
space flight shown other than how many times we can circle
the Earth?
What's the cost-benefit ratio? What's NASA's annual $15
billion budget brought us?
Case Study:
IS NASA LOST IN SPACE?
TOO MANY LIVES AND DOLLARS HAVE ALREADY BEEN WASTED
(John Baer, New York Times editorial, 2/3/2003)
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Remember blowing up spy satellites atop Titan 4 rockets
regularly at $1 billion a pop?
Or how about that space station? In '84, NASA said it was
$8 billion to build. Today, it's $30 billion and climbing.
That's enough to run Pennsylvania, population 12 million,
for a year and a half. Know the population of the space
station? Three.
Case Study:
IS NASA LOST IN SPACE?
TOO MANY LIVES AND DOLLARS HAVE ALREADY BEEN WASTED
(John Baer, New York Times editorial, 2/3/2003)
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In 1995, then-Sen. Dale Bumpers, D-Ark., tried to stop the
space station. The effort, and others since, failed. But
Bumpers argued that every dime spent in space is one less
for education and "honest-to-God medical research."
I like his point. Now that we're at war and poised for
another and sitting stalled in a flat economy, I like it even
better.
Case Study:
IS NASA LOST IN SPACE?
TOO MANY LIVES AND DOLLARS HAVE ALREADY BEEN WASTED
(John Baer, New York Times editorial, 2/3/2003)
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The national poverty rate, after four straight years of decline,
is up to 11.7 percent. There are 32.9 million poor people in
America, 6.8 million poor families. Some 40 million
Americans don't have health insurance. Last year, the
Institute of Medicine said 18,000 working-age adults died
prematurely because they didn't have medical insurance.
It's time to think about these things. And ask tough
questions. And slip the surly bonds of Congress and smack
the face of NASA.
Public Perception:
"Manned Spaceflight is Expensive"
The media usually presents
accurate information on the
"costs" (or risks) of spaceflight
missions.
HOWEVER......
The media often fails to put these
"investments" (or risks) within
their PROPER CONTEXT.
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Public Perception
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Hypothetical Missions
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NASA Budget
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US Government Budget
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US Economic Activity
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Apollo
Mission Plans: Mars Direct
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5 - 7 years to develop
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$7 - $30 billion
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$1 - $6 billion / year
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Total useful payload to
surface: 53.8 tonnes
Take-Home Points!
Space expenditures are
INVESTMENTs, not COSTs.
INVESTMENT PER YEAR is a
good metric to use.
TOTAL COST is often
misleading, and is harder for
the public to relate to.
Mission Plans: NASA MRM
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7 - 10 years to develop
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$40 - $60 billion
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$4 - $8 billion / year
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Total useful payload to
surface: ~153 tonnes
Mission Plans: Moon/NEA/Mars
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20 years to develop?
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$160 billion?
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$8 billion / year?
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Accomplishes more, but
timeframe is probably too
long
Mission Plans: 90-Day Report
(Battlestar Galactica)
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30 years to develop
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$450 billion
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$15 billion / year
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Total useful payload to
surface: ?? tonnes
scifi.com
Mission Plans: Marvin
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Wait for Earthlings to land
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Disintegrate habitat
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Disintegrate ERV
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Disintegrate Earthlings
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Await next invasion
Potential Budget:
Human Exploration Missions
(billions, rough estimates)
Mars Direct:
$2/yr
$15
Mars Reference Mission:
$5/yr
$50
Moon/NEA/Mars (est):
20yrs?
$8/yr?
$160 ?
Battlestar Galactica:
$15/yr
$450
7yrs
10yrs
30 yrs
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Public Perception
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Hypothetical Missions
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NASA Budget
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US Government Budget
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US Economic Activity
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Apollo
NASA Budget Question:
What is NASA's 2004
budget?
$150 Billion
$ 45 Billion
$ 30 Billion
$ 15 Billion
$ 10 Billion
NASA Budget Answer:
How much will NASA
spend in 2004?
$150 Billion
$ 45 Billion
$ 30 Billion
$ 15 Billion <---$ 10 Billion
NASA Budget Question:
What percentage of the 2004
NASA budget is invested
in (human) "Space Flight"?
90 %
70 %
50 %
30 %
10 %
NASA Budget Answer:
What percentage of the 2004
NASA budget is invested
in (human) "Space Flight"?
90 %
70 %
------> 50 %
30 %
10 %
NASA Budget: 2004
TOTAL OUTLAYS:
$15.5
100%
(proposed, billions) (from www.nasa.gov)
Space Science:
$4.0
26%
Earth Science:
$1.6
10%
Biological/Physical Research:
$1.0
6%
Aeronautics:
$1.0
6%
Education
$0.2
1%
Space Flight:
39%
ISS, Ops:
Shuttle:
$6.1
$2.1
$4.0
Take-Home Point!
The current NASA budget for
manned spaceflight is less
than $8 billion per year.
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Public Perception
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Hypothetical Missions
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NASA Budget
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US Government Budget
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US Economic Activity
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Apollo
US Government Budget Question:
What is the US Federal
budget for 2004?
$ 2200 Billion
$ 1700 Billion
$ 1000 Billion
$ 800 Billion
$ 300 Billion
US Government Budget Answer:
How much will the U.S.
Government spend in 2004?
$ 2200 Billion <---$ 1700 Billion
$ 1000 Billion
$ 800 Billion
$ 300 Billion
US Government Budget Question:
What percentage of the 2004 U.S.
Government budget is invested
into NASA Human Space Flight?
Less than 1%
1% to 5%
5% to 10%
More than 10%
Not sure
(20%)
(37%)
(19%)
(17%)
( 8%)
US Government Budget Answer:
What percentage of the 2004 U.S.
Government budget is invested
into NASA Human Space Flight?
Less than 1%
1% to 5%
5% to 10%
More than 10%
Not sure
(20%) <---(37%)
(19%)
(17%)
( 8%)
Take-Home Point!
The total NASA budget is
~$15 billion dollars, LESS
THAN ONE PERCENT of
the federal budget.
(100%)
US Government Budget:
$ 4932004
Social Security:
(proposed, billions) (from http://w3.access.gpo.gov/usbudget)
Medicare/Medicaid:
(22%)
$ 440
(20%)
Defense:
$
390
(17%)
$ 307
(14%)
*Iraq war (2003, est 3/24):
$ 75
(3.4%)
Unemployment Insurance:
$ 40
(1.8%)
*Med/Med fraud:
$ 26
(1.2%)
*Airline bailout (2002):
$ 20
(0.9%)
NASA budget:
$ 15
(100%)
Social Security:
$ 493
US Government Budget:
2004
(22%)
(proposed, billions) (from http://w3.access.gpo.gov/usbudget)
Medicare/Medicaid:
$ 440
(20%)
Defense:
$
390
(17%)
Budget deficit:
$ 307
(14%)
*Iraq war (2003, est 3/24):
$ 75
(3.4%)
Unemployment Insurance:
$ 40
(1.8%)
*Med/Med fraud:
$ 26
(1.2%)
*Airline bailout (2002):
$ 20
(0.9%)
US Government Budget: 2004
(proposed, billions) (from http://w3.access.gpo.gov/usbudget)
TOTAL OUTLAYS:
Budget deficit:
NASA budget:
2004 budget deficit w/o NASA:
$2229
(100%)
$ 307
(14%)
$ 15
(0.7%)
$ 292
(13%)
Take-Home Points!
The US Government operates
on DEFICIT / SURPLUS
spending.
A "dime saved" is a dime of
deficit reduction, not a dime
that can be spent elsewhere
Take-Home Points!
If the US Government wants
to spend more money on
education, welfare, or
curing diseases, IT WILL.
Investment in spaceflight is
irrelevant to such decisions.
Take-Home Points!
Deficits are paid off over time,
possibly by our children and
our grandchildren.
These are the same people who
will benefit the most from
prudent deficit INVESTING
into the space program.
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Public Perception
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Hypothetical Missions
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NASA Budget
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US Government Budget
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US Economic Activity
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Apollo
United States Economy
(billions)
1998 world economic consumption (UN):
$24000
2003 US Economy forecast (revenue) (US GPO): $10500
(100%)
2003 US Government Budget:
(20%)
$ 2128
2003 NASA Budget:
15 (0.14%)
US Trade deficit, March, 2003 (Commerce Dept):
(0.4%)
$
$
42.9
Microsoft Corp. Earnings
(billions) (from http://www.microsoft.com)
4th Quarter, 2003 (reported on 7/15/03):
Revenues:
$8
Income:
Fiscal Year 2004 Estimates:
Revenues:
Income:
$13
End-of-year 2002:
Total assets:
$67.6
Cash reserve:
$38.7
$32
$3
General Motors Corp. Earnings
(billions) (from http://www.gm.com)
1st Quarter, 2003 (reported on 4/15/03):
Revenues:
$49.4
Net Income:
$1.5
Cash reserve:
$20
Fiscal Year 2002 Earnings:
Revenues:
Net Income:
Cash generated:
$177.3
$3.9
$8
Miscellaneous Figures
(billions)
2002 State Farm "Administrative
Fees" (State Farm):
Yearly 1990's golf course construction (USPGA):
Average assets of 10 random investment
management firms (Pacific Life):
390.7
Yearly migrant remittances to Philippines (gov):
7.0
Yearly Europe/US ice cream purchases (UN,USDA):
2002 US alcoholic beverages (www.usda.com):
114.0
Yearly artwork sold worldwide (art-exchange.com):
~100.0
$
$
7.0
9.5
$
$
$
31.0
$
$
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Public Perception
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Hypothetical Missions
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NASA Budget
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US Government Budget
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US Economic Activity
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Apollo
Questions to Ponder:
What if the United
States explored Mars
like we explored the
Moon in the 1960's?
How much would the
Apollo investment be,
today?
Comparing NASA... Then and Now
(billions, unadjusted)
Comparing NASA... Then and Now
(billions, unadjusted)
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Height: 1966
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Decline: 1970
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GDP:
–
US: $195.6
NASA: $4.5 (0.6%)
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NASA: $3.1 (0.3%)
Apollo: $3.0 (0.4%)
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Apollo: $1.7 (0.2%)
–
GDP:
$752.7
–
US: $134.5
–
–
(18%)
$1009.4
(19%)
* Note: Current NASA Budget = 0.14% of 2003 US GDP.
* Note: 0.4% of 2003 US GDP = $42 billion.
Brian's Wishful Thinking:
What if the
United States invested
$42 Billion Dollars
on the Human
Exploration of Mars,
EACH YEAR???
Take-Home Points!
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Use INVESTMENT PER YEAR.
Budget for manned spaceflight is
less than $8 billion / year.
Total NASA budget is 0.7% of the
US budget.
Deficit/surplus spending isolates
the cost of spaceflight from other
budget costs.
To reach Mars, we only need 1/10
ice creams, or 1/50 beers!