Transcript Lecture #2

Sociology SOCI 20182
Demography of Russia and
the Former Soviet Union
Instructors: Leonid Gavrilov, Natalia Gavrilova
Lecture 2
Components of population growth
in Russia, 1927-2006
Компоненты изменения численности населения России, 1927-2006
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
-500
-1000
-1500
-2000
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
Естественный
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Миграционный
Green- Natural increase; Pink – increase due to migration; Source: Demoscope Weekly
2005
Publication on the history of
Russian population before 1959
The most detailed publication on the
topic is available in Russian:
Andreev, E.M., Darsky, L.E.,
Kharkova, T.L. “Demographic History
of Russia: 1927-1957”, Moscow:
Informatika, 1998 (available online
at Demoscope Weekly)
Recent events in Russia
First steps of Gorbachev


May 1985 - Anti-alcohol
campaign
Sales of alcohol were
significantly decreased. The
campaign was highly
unpopular. But it had very
strong demographic impact.
May 1986 - Campaign
against ‘unearned’ income.
Directed against unofficial
small businesses
Effect of anti-alcohol campaign on
life expectancy in Russia
76
Life expectancy, years
74
72
Women
Men
70
68
66
64
62
60
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
Calendar year
1988
1990
1992
From 1984 to
1987 life
expectancy
of men
increased
from 61.7 to
64..8. Life
expectancy
of women
increased
from 73.0 to
74.3.
Disasters during
the Gorbachev’s term



April 1986 - Chernobyl
accident. Explosion at the
nuclear plant. Affects
mortality many years
later.
August 1986 - Nakhimov
cruise ship sank within
minutes. Over 400 dead
June 1989 – two
passenger trains exploded
because of a leak in the
gas pipeline. Over 500
dead, over 600 badly
injured
Gorbachev and perestroyka

Gorbachev introduced sweeping
political and economic reforms,
bringing glasnost and
perestroika, “openness” and
“restructuring,” to the Soviet
system. He established much
warmer relations with the West,
ended the Soviet occupation of
Afghanistan, and announced that
the Warsaw Pact countries were
free to pursue their own political
agendas. In 1990 he was
awarded the Nobel Peace Prize
for his contributions to ending
the 45-year conflict between
East and West.
March 1991 –
Union-wide Referendum



80% of population participated in
referendum
76.4% voted for the retention of the
Soviet Union in a reformed form. (from
70% in Ukraine to 98% in Turkmenia)
The Baltics, Armenia, Georgia and
Moldova boycotted the referendum.
August 1991 - Military Coup


On August 19, 1991, four
senior officials acted to
prevent the signing of the
union treaty by forming the
"State Committee on the
State Emergency." The
"Committee" put Gorbachev
(vacationing in Crimea)
under house arrest,
reintroduced political
censorship, and attempted to
stop the perestroika.
This action did not receive
population support and
eventually failed.
The last days of the Soviet Union

Bread queue,
Moscow (Dec
1991). Waiting
for a bread
kiosk to open
in a western
Moscow
suburb.
http://www.4020.net/eastbloc/
1991 - Dissolution of the Soviet
Union



Yeltsin's defiant actions during the coup—he
barricaded himself in the Russian parliament and
called for national strikes—resulted in
Gorbachev's reinstatement. But from then on,
power had effectively shifted from Gorbachev to
Yeltsin and away from centralized power to
greater power for the individual Soviet republics.
In the end of 1991 the leaders of Russia, Ukraine
and Belarus made a decision to dissolve the
Soviet Union at the separate meeting in
Belovezhska puscha (Belarus).
Gorbachev resigned on Dec. 25, and Yeltsin, who
had been the driving force behind the Soviet
dissolution, became president of the newly
established Russian Republic.
Yeltsin and ‘market reforms’

At the start of 1992,
Russia embarked on a
series of dramatic
economic reforms,
including the freeing
of prices on most
goods, which led to an
immediate downturn.
Soviet Economy




The economy of the Soviet Union was
based on a system of state ownership
and administrative planning. Gosplan
(“State planning body”).
After 1930 all industrial property and
virtually all land were collective.
Personal property was allowed but
private property was abolished
It was a crime to hold and exchange
foreign currency.
Gaydar Reforms of 1992





Regulated retail prices
became free
(skyrocketed)
Currency exchange was
allowed
Large and small
businesses were allowed
Privatization of
everything
Now these reforms are
called “infamous” in the
Russian mass media.
Impact of Disintegration of Central
Planning Apparatus



Distribution system disappears – no
“market” to replace it.
Non-cash economy becomes barter
economy.
Dramatic decline of industrial sector,
particularly military related industry
GDP Crisis
Effect of market reforms on life
expectancy in Russia
76
Life expectancy
of men dropped
from 63.8 years
in 1990 to 57.4
years in 1994.
Life expectancy
of women
dropped from
74.3 years to
71.1 years
74
Life expectancy, years
72
70
68
66
Women
Men
64
62
60
58
56
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
Calendar year
1994
1995
1996
October 1993
In September 1993, Yeltsin
dissolved the legislative
bodies. Tanks were used to
shoot the Russian Parliament
Bloodshed continued further in
Chechnya
1996

Yeltsin won the president elections
1998 - new economic crisis

On Aug. 28, 1998, amid the Russian
stock market's free fall, the Russian
government halted trading of the
ruble on international currency
markets. This financial crisis led to a
long-term economic downturn and
political upheaval.
1998 crisis stopped
demographic recovery
74
72
Life expectancy, years
70
68
Women
Men
66
64
62
60
58
56
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
Calendar year
2004
2006
2008
The Rise of Putin

Yeltsin nominated
Vladimir Putin as a
Prime Minister on Aug.
9, 1999, announcing that
in addition to serving as
prime minister, the
former KGB agent was
his choice as a successor
in the 2000 presidential
election.
Putin’s rule

On March 26, 2000, Putin won the
presidential election with about 53% of
the vote. Putin moved to centralize
power in Moscow and attempted to limit
the power and influence of both the
regional governors and wealthy business
leaders. Although Russia remained
economically stagnant, Putin brought his
nation a measure of political stability it
never had under the unpredictable and
erratic Yeltsin.
Medvedev – the New Russian
President

In December, Putin endorsed
Dmitri Medvedev in March
2008's presidential election.
A Putin loyalist who is said
to be moderate and proWestern, Medvedev is a first
deputy prime minister and
the chairman of Gazprom,
the country's oil monopoly.
Medvedev said that if
elected, he would appoint
Putin as prime minister.
Medvedev won the March
presidential election with
67% of the vote.
Putin about population
December 2009



“We can say with a high
degree of confidence that
Russia will register a growth
in population for the first
time since 1995.”
Putin said at an end-of-year
government meeting
broadcast on state
television.
The prime minister said
official statistics to be
released later would bear
this fact out and his
spokesman, Dmitry Peskov,
confirmed that Putin was
referring to 2009 for the
change in the trend.
Population of Russia after 2000
148000
Population (in thousand)
147000
146000
145000
144000
143000
142000
141000
140000
2000
2001
2002
2003
Source: Goskomstat Russia
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Population changes (% per year)
in Russia after 2000
0.60
0.20
-0.20
-0.40
-0.60
Source: Goskomstat Russia
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
0.00
1990
Population increase, percent
0.40
Components of population change
natural increase
migration increase
600
Population increase (one-year)
400
200
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
-200
-400
-600
-800
-1000
-1200
Source: Goskomstat Russia
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Changes in Russian fertility rates
Number of children per 1 woman
1,600
1,500
1,400
1,300
1,200
1,100
1,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
Source: Goskomstat Russia
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Changes in life expectancy in Russia
Men
Women
80.00
Life expectancy at birth
75.00
70.00
65.00
60.00
55.00
Source: Goskomstat Russia
20
08
20
06
20
04
20
02
20
00
19
98
19
96
19
94
19
92
19
90
50.00
What is Russia Now?
Economic Performance 19992006
Indicator
Units
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
GDP Growth
%
6.4 10.0
5.1
4.7
7.3
7.1
6.4
6.5
Industry Growth
%
11.0 11.9
4.9
3.7
7.0
8.3
4.0
4.3
Industrial Production 1991=100
54
59
62
65
70
75
78
81
Investment Growth
%
5.3 17.4 10.0
2.8 12.5 11.7 10.7 11.1
Unemployment
% LF
12.4
9.9
8.7
9.0
8.7
7.6
7.7
7.2
Inflation (CPI)
%
86.1 20.8 21.6 15.7 13.7 11.0 11.3
9.8
Budget Deficit
% GDP
-4.2
3.2
2.7
0.6
1.1
5.0
7.5
6.7
Current Account
$ Billion
24.6 46.8 33.9 29.1 35.8 58.6 84.2 101.2
Foreign Currency Debt % GDP
66.8 44.5 33.3 27.7 22.5 16.3
9.2
7.6
Real GDP (1989=100)
■ Russia ■ Average, transition countries
Changes in GDP
Balance of Trade








2000 - Surplus of $60 billion
2001 – Surplus of $48 billion
2002 – Surplus of $46 billion
2003 – Surplus of $48.7 billion
2006 – Surplus of 125.9 euro
2007 – Surplus of 111.2 euro
2008 – Surplus of 127.4 euro
Source: IMF
Dynamics of Russian Software Exports
As for future, the country is projected to export software worth over
US$ 15 Billion by 2012.
Unemployment and poverty rate
Real Wage Growth
Moscow City
The Moscow City complex, where Renaissance Capital has their main offices.
RenCap CEO Stephen Jennings predicts that Moscow will soon become one of
the world's top five financial centers
Final Remarks on Russian History
Russia is a thing of which
The intellect cannot conceive
Hers is no common yardstick
You measure her uniquely:
In Russia you only believe
Fjodor Tyutchev, Russian poet
“Russia is a riddle wrapped in a mystery
inside an enigma” (Sir W. Churchill)