Transcript Workshop 1.2 Demographic Change - SeGI

ESPON Internal Seminar 2012
“Territorial Development Opportunities in Europe and its
Neighbourhood Fostering Global Competitiveness”
Parallel Workshop Session: Workshop 1.2
Demographic Change
Inputs from SeGI
Individuals who have never
used a computer, 2009
Question 1
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Broadband, internet and skills in ICT are
considered important for economic
development and social cohesion.
A trend of polarisation regarding
individuals who have never used a
computer within Europe.
Differences in accessibility to ICT in
different countries and regions.
How much an individual can use internet
– and the devices needed to access
internet – is dependent on contextual
aspects such as income distribution, age
structure in the population and
educational level.
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Early school leavers, 2009
Question 1
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The objective is to develop the education
systems in order to increase European
competitiveness. A higher share of early
leavers is not good for competitiveness or
for social cohesion as it compromises the
future of these regions.
The regions with the highest share of early
school leavers are from the Iberian
Peninsula, Turkey, some from Greece,
Bulgaria, Romania, U.K., Iceland and Italy.
In the wake of the economic crisis starting
2008, the educational system has been
subject to budget cut-backs.
Children from socially excluded or
marginalised households are
overrepresented among the early school
leavers.
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Question 1
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During the current on-going economic and financial crisis it has become clear that several EU
members do not have the financial resource to maintain the present provision of Services of
General Interest in general, and especially Social Services of General Interest. Many SGI are critical
to the delivery of the modern welfare state. Empirical evidence from the case studies, demonstrates
the emergence of such trends in some regions of Europe.
In recent decades rural, peripheral, insular, mountainous and outermost areas have in general
experienced decreasing accessibility to SGI, while the opposite trends are evident in
metropolises and urban agglomerations. The on-going privatisation of SGI will not improve the
situation for these disadvantaged regions.
The impact on SGI is negative as a consequence of unbalanced population increases,
shrinking economies and significant environmental problems – negative driving forces that
reinforce each other. Territorial cohesion will be eroded and the risk of promoting closed and
protectionist economies are one of the threats that can see an already precarious situation made
worse. SGI will be a low priority and impacted very hard as the economic surplus will be too small for
large investments in the service sectors despite the huge level of demand. Private actors are hesitant
to invest and operate in sparsely populated areas due to low (if any!) profitability.
A large share of the population in Europe and in the neighbouring countries with low accessibility,
affordability and availability to SGI are found in marginal groups in society.
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Question 2
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The major metropolises and urban agglomerations will experience a positive development of SGI as a
consequence of balanced population increases, expanding economies and an absence of major
environmental problems. A diversified economic structure will help the economy recover and will be
more resilient and less vulnerable to the challenges posed by the new emerging economies. Positive
demographic developments will also have a positive impact on the European economy as the
shortage of labour, especially with regard to SGI, will not be so acute. An opposite development is
seen in rural, peripheral, insular, mountainous and outermost areas.
Due to a relatively higher attractiveness of labour situation in fields of SGI in Europe, labour force may
continue/intensify to be pulled from neighbourhood countries. For the countries/areas of origin (in
Europe and the neighbouring areas) this could create severe shortages in skilled labour in the
areas of SGI.
Together with international immigration and ageing, demands and needs for SGI will diversify;
especially in fields of SSGI (education, health, housing, culture) and related insurances.
Migration flows, investment, trade etc. will be directed towards the major metropolises and urban
agglomerations, both in Europe as well as in the neighbouring areas. The demand for SGI will be met
by the market. Rural, peripheral, insular, mountainous and outermost areas experience an opposite
development: people, human capital, investments, trade etc. are leaving. It is a challenge to maintain
the present levels of SGI for the governments in these areas as the market finds them unprofitable.
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Question 3
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The policy challenge ahead is not only about solving the financial problems in some EU member
countries. An even bigger challenge is found in the attempts at resuscitation of the policy on
economic, social and territorial cohesion. Although the financing issue may be solved in the
medium-term, the political will of subsidiary and solidarity between the EU members may be more
difficult to re-establish.
During the current on-going economic and financial crisis it has become clear that several EU
members do not have the financial resource to maintain the present provision of Services of General
Interest in general, and especially Social Services of General Interest. Many SGI are critical to the
delivery of the modern welfare state. If the national governments cannot uphold and guarantee a
minimum provision of Social Services of General Interest, who can? This development
challenges the notion of a ‘Social Contract’ in Europe as well as in the neighbouring countries.
An opportunity to smoothen the transition and increase integration with the neighbouring regions in
especially south-east Europe, the European Union may take efforts to spread its basic idea of
social model.
Many opportunities are found in relation to environmental sustainability, including carbon neutral
cities, energy consumption and transport . These are based upon place based strategies both in the
EU as well as in the neighbouring countries. Cooperation around Services of General Economic
Interest is a keyword.
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