Transcript It could have been very different

• Presentation to the Development Foundation for Zimbabwe
conference on engaging the Diaspora
Victoria Falls Zimbabwe
16-18th December 2010
• By Max Gomera
Nation-Building 3.0
Opportunities for Powering the Zimbabwean
Economy from the emerging Renewable Energy
Maxwell Gomera
• Zimbabwe has set an ambition of 5% GDP Growth
– Growth areas likely to be mining, agriculture and
manufacturing
– Growth from from at least two areas limited both in terms of
the distributive aspects of the wealth and potential for
driving development.
• Growth is limited by weak energy sector
–
–
–
–
–
National power demand estimated at 2,000 to 3,200MW
Installed Capacity approximately 1,200MW
Available generation capacity approximately 1,000MW
Effective deficit approximately 1,900MW
With refurbishment of Hwange, Munyati, Harare and Kariba,
available generation might reach 1,650MW by 2015
Context
• Economy largely dependant on Coal, Hydro and
Imports for energy
– Climate change limits the potential for coal (in terms of
securing investment and pressures on emissions)
– GRID sources have Limited Opportunity to power rural
areas
• Where are the new areas for innovation?
– Renewable energy presents a development opportunity
aimed at creating a new driver for economic growth; new
sources of employment and consistent solutions for the
improvement of environmental quality based on the
recognition of the interdependence of environment and
economy
Context
One which consumes capital..
..or risks human survival..
‘Ecological Footprint’ already exceeds
Earth’s regenerative capacity… our demands
on the planet have doubled over the last 40
years…
Green Economy is not…
+ Public/private investment in green sectors
+ Quantity and quality of jobs in green sectors
+ Share of green sectors in GDP
DOWN
UP
- Energy-resource-material use/GDP
- CO2 and pollution level/GDP
- Wasteful consumption
Characteristics of Greening
1. GEI Conceptual Issues
Feasibility of Renewable Energy: Good ideas or
just hot air? Some examples…
Comparison between performance and cost of Renewable Energy technologies
Energy
Emissions of
CO2 in
Typical power Investment
energy
generation
Cost
production
per unit (kW) (US$/kW)
stages
(t/GWh)
Final Power Available
(kW)
Generation
Cost
(US$/MWh)
Efficiency
(%)
Mín
Máx
Wind
7
2000
1.200
120
45
75
900
Photovoltaic
5
10
9.000
500
18
0,005
1.8
Biomass
Null
50.000
2.500
78
35
2.5
17.500
Small scale
hydroelectric
10
1.000
3.000
102
85
30
850
[1]
Production stages: extraction of raw materials (when appropriate), construction of power plants and operation. .
Source: adapted from the presentation of the Center for Research on Electricity (CEPEL), 2007
Renewable Energy
Kenya – Feed-in Tariffs
Mandator
y Use
Access to
Grid
Set Price
per kWh
Long-term
Power
Purchase
FTI Aspects
FTI Aspects
Expected
Benefits
Job Creation
(200,000 farmers)
Enhancing
competitiveness
(5-6m factories)
Enhancing energy
security (500MW)
Coping with fuel
scarcity and price
Environmental
Integrity
Reducing fuel
dependence
“TRIPLE WIN”
Expected Benefits
+ ten-year power purchase agreement
US Cents 6.0/ kWh
• Facilitate resource mobilization
• Reduce transaction costs
• Encourage private investors
FTI Policy
FTI Policy
Observed
Impacts
35 MW
15 MW(2008)
Observed Impacts on
Mumias Sugar Company
Solar Water Heaters
China is world’s largest market
Implementation Plan on
Promoting Solar Thermal
Utilization in 2007
(11th Five-Year Plan
for New and Renewable Energy)
2/3 global share
Over 10% of population rely on
4o mil SWH systems in place
Priority for hospitals, schools,
restaurants and swimming pool
China – Solar Water Heaters
UNEP – Green Economy Initiative
Economic
Benefits
Environmental
Benefits
Social
Benefits
Industry/ Highly
profitable
Reduce fossil fuel
consumption
Reduce risk of CO
poisoning, Rheumatoid
arthritis
Household/ save fuel
costs (342 – 3321 yuan)
Save 348,000 t SCE of
fossil energy/ year
600,000 employed
China – Solar Water Heaters
EASTGATE building in Zimbabwe
mimics cooling mounds of termites
• EASTGATE building in
Zimbabwe uses less than
10% of the energy of a
conventional building its size.
• Eastgate's owners saved
$3.5 million on a $36 million
building because an airconditioning plant didn't have
to be imported.
• Rents are 20% lower than in
other buildings.
Source: Mick Pearce
Green buildings
Fuel Consumption (L/1000
TKU)
96
São Paulo State Matrix for Transport 2000
Rodoviário
Ferroviário
5,2%
Dutoviário
0,8%
Aéreo
Hidroviário
0,3%
0,5%
10
5
93,2%
Hidroviário Ferroviário
Rodoviáro
Source: Ministry of Transport
Source: PDDT Vivo
Energy Efficiency
Load / Power (T / HP)
CO2 Emissions (kg/1000 TKU)
116
5
20
0.75
34
0,17
Hidroviário Ferroviário
Hidroviário
Ferroviário
Rodoviáro
Rodoviáro
Source: Ministry of Transport
Sustainable Transport
Source: DOT/Maritime Administration e TCL
Sustainable Planning Initiatives
Economic Benefits
Per capita loss from severe
congestion 6.7-11 times less
than other cities
City
Management
Urban
Planning
Transport
Planning
Policy to transform
city and industry
Flood control ->
turned vulnerable areas
into parks
Annual fuel losses (per capita)
4.3-13 times less than others
Park with buses and bi-cycle
path (ecological asset + green
infrastructure)
Fuel usage is 30 percent lower
than other cities
Curitiba Industrial City (CIC)
700 companies, 50,000 direct
jobs, 150,000 indirect jobs
Population increase in a sustainable way
361,000 (1960) – 1,797,000 (2007)
Brazil – Sustainable Cities
Organic Agriculture
60%/ 359%
increase
296,203 ha/
206,803
farmers
(2008)
48-68% lower carbon emission
Carbon Sequestration
185,000 ha,
45,000 farmers
(2004)
Climate Contribution
OA Growth in Uganda
US$ 22.8 mil (2007/8)
US$ 6.2 mil (2004/5)
US$ 3.7 mil (2003/4)
Organic food & drink
97% revenue –OECD countries
80% producer in developing countries
OA Exports in Uganda
Business Opportunity
Uganda – OA Transformation
UNEP – Green Economy Initiative
• Use of Economic Instruments
– Feed In Tariffs for Renewable energy
• Creating a market for renewable energy and increasing the
number of producers Rewarding green production and creating
a green market
– Accessing Global Financing
• Clean Development Mechanism
• Reducing Emissions from Degradation and Deforestation
• Adaptation Funds
– Green Economy Credit Line
• Support to Small and Medium Enterprises from local and
international financiers
• Stimulus money, loan guarantees, grant programs
Constructing the Agenda....
• State programs for sustainable construction
–
–
–
–
Reduced taxes for green technologies
Develop policies to guide sustainable construction
Challenge the assumption of connection to ZESA
Water harvesting and individual water use control
• Payment for Ecosystem Services
– Forests are important as offsetting tools
– Wetlands, etc
– Accessing such finances can be a challenge
• Support to local research capacities
– Tech innovation will allow for production cost
reductions and installation cost reductions in the long
run
Constructing the Agenda…
Value
Horizon 1:
Acting together
with Business /
Market leaders
Instruments / Actions
Transforming the Productive Sector
Time
Value
Horizon 2:
Change processes
in the supply
chain & bring the
Horizon 1:
market average
Acting together
toward Env
with leaders of
agenda
the market
Instruments /
Actions
Changes in
project design
Time
Transforming the Productive Sector
Value
Horizon 1:
Acting together
with leaders of
market
Instruments /
Action
Horizon 3:
Change all
elements of
Horizon 2:
the
Change processes
production
in the supply
chain
chain & bring the installed in
market average
Zimbabwe
for the
environmental
agenda
Change in
design of
projects
The
Government of
Zim will
contribute to
the stimulation
of
sustainability in
the private
business
Change in social Time
behavior
Planning tools and monitoring
Strategy with the Productive Sector
•All agendas will need to link
•Green Economy provides one framework for such a
conversation
•Concept brings together agenda of work, wealth and health
•Unifies the key actors in the economy, including Business which
will ultimately provide most of the solutions
Green Economy