Transcript Seminar slides (Powerpoint presentation 5139Kb)

ONS Economic Forum
Email: [email protected]
Twitter: @ONS
#ONSeconomy
Website: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/about-ons/getinvolved/events/events/economic-forum/index.html
WIFI code for Glaziers Hall: event123
19 May 2015
1
ONS Economic Forum – May 2015
Agenda
09.45
Introduction & welcome
10.00
What’s new
10.40
What’s next
11.20
Refreshment break
11.50
Measuring living standards
12.30
Close
2
Introduction and welcome
Sir Andrew Dilnot , Chair, UK Statistics Authority
ONS Economic Forum
19 May 2015
3
What’s new
Peter Patterson, Deputy Chief Economic Adviser
ONS Economic Forum
19 May 2015
4
What’s new - outline
• Points from the latest ONS economic statistics
• Preliminary estimate of GDP for 2015Q1
• Today’s inflation statistics (CPI/PPI April, HPI
March)
• Other prices developments (CPIH, house price
indices)
• Construction prices
5
Labour market continues to grow at
above average rate
% changes on a year earlier
10
Total weekly hours
Real GDP
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
1972
Q1
1975
Q1
1978
Q1
1981
Q1
1984
Q1
1987
Q1
1990
Q1
1993
Q1
1996
Q1
1999
Q1
2002
Q1
2005
Q1
2008
Q1
2011
Q1
2014
Q1
6
Unemployment down by 2pp over past
18 months
%, percentage points
14
11.9
12
10.7
10
8.5
8
6.9
6
5.5
4
4.7
2
0
-2
18 month change
Unemployment Rate 16+
-4
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
1993
1997
2001
2005
2009
2013
7
Regular pay growth picks up
Regular pay growth, % changes on year earlier, 3-month average
7
6
5
4
3
2
Services
1
Finance & business sers
0
Distn, hotels & rests
Whole economy
-1
Private sector
-2
2001
MAR
2002
MAR
2003
MAR
2004
MAR
2005
MAR
2006
MAR
2007
MAR
2008
MAR
2009
MAR
2010
MAR
2011
MAR
2012
MAR
2013
MAR
2014
MAR
2015
MAR
8
Productivity and real compensation
growth
Index nos, 2000=100
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
Real CoE per employee
90
Real w&s per employee
85
Output per worker
80
75
1992 Q3
1995 Q3
1998 Q3
2001 Q3
2004 Q3
2007 Q3
2010 Q3
2013 Q3
9
EU and non-EU trade volumes
Volume of trade in goods excluding oil and erratics: ratio of exports to imports, index nos 2001=100
130
120
110
100
90
80
Total
EU
70
Non-EU
60
50
1998 Q1
2000 Q1
2002 Q1
2004 Q1
2006 Q1
2008 Q1
2010 Q1
2012 Q1
2014 Q1
10
GDP preliminary estimate: 2015 Q1
• GDP estimated to have increased by 0.3% in 2015 Q1
Services growth 0.5% slowing from 0.9% in 2014 Q4
Production fell 0.1% (manufacturing rose 0.1%)
Construction fell 1.6% following a fall of 2.2% in Q4
• Services slowdown mainly attributed to Business, Services and
Finance (2015 Q1 0.1%, 2014 Q4 1.3%)
• Many of the large upwards contributors in Q4 are either falling or fairly
flat in Q1 (Finance, Architectural Services, Employment Activities)
2014 Q4 growth highest since 2011 Q3
2015 Q1 growth lowest since 2010 Q4
11
Latest data
• The March release of Production data estimated 2015 Q1 growth at
0.1% (up from -0.1% at Prelim)
• The March release of Construction data estimated 2015 Q1 growth
at -1.1% (up from -1.6% at Prelim)
• Services, the largest industrial grouping is published 28 May
Weight (%)
Cont’n to prelim
GDP growth
(pp)
Cont’n to GDP
growth – latest
data (pp)
Agriculture
0.6
0.00
Pub 28 May
Production
14.6
-0.01
+0.01
Construction
6.4
-0.10
-0.06
Services
78.4
0.41
Pub 28 May
12
Monthly growth contributions
Contributions to growth in total output, GDP weights, percentage points
0.8
0.6
*
0.4
Index of services
0.2
Construction output
Index of production
0.0
* NB: March 2015
services figure is
estimate used to
compile the Q1
preliminary GDP
estimate
-0.2
-0.4
2014 JAN
2014 APR
2014 JUL
2014 OCT
2015 JAN
13
Construction output – new work
Index nos, 2008Q1=100
200
180
160
Private housing
140
Private industrial
Private commercial
120
Infrastructure
Other public
Public housing
100
Total new work
80
60
40
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3 Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4 Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3 Q4Q1
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
14
Data content
• The preliminary estimate of GDP is made using 44%
(approx) of the total that is required for the final output
based estimate
• But in addition to this there are early responses to monthly
business surveys that help inform estimates for the third
month
• Data content by industry grouping is quiet varied
• Government and other services has a particularly low data
content but is usually fairly steady making forecasting
easier
15
Output estimate of GDP: data content by
sector
Data Content Prelim (%)
Data Content 2nd Est (%)
Data Content QNA (%)
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Agriculture
Production
Construction
Dist, Hotels,
Rest
Storage,
Comms
Bus & Fin
Gov & Other
NB: The chart provides approximate estimates of data content by industrial grouping
16
Prices update
Richard Campbell
Head of Consumer Price Statistics
Production & User Engagement
Prices Division
Office for National Statistics
17
Prices update – outline
•
•
•
•
Summary of today’s numbers.
CPIH improvements.
Definitive house price index.
Construction Prices.
18
CPIH Improvements
• National Statistics status was suspended for CPIH in
August 2014
• Improvements to OOH in CPIH were introduced as
part of the 2015 annual update on 24 March 2015
• Growth in private rents now more responsive to
recession
• Also took opportunity of revision to VOA data to align
OOH weight in CPIH with national accounts
estimates historically and anticipate methodological
changes to the measurement of imputed rents,
planned for BB16.
19
CPIH- revising OOH index
Per cent
6
Percentage points
0.6
5
0.5
4
0.4
3
0.3
2
0.2
1
0.1
0
0.0
-1
-0.1
-2
Dif f erence (RHS)
-0.2
-3
CPIH:Previously published (LHS)
-0.3
-4
CPIH: Revised OOH index (LHS)
-0.4
-5
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
-0.5
Jan-15
20
CPIH - revising OOH index and weight
Per cent
6
Percentage points
0.6
5
0.5
4
0.4
3
0.3
2
0.2
1
0.1
0
0.0
-1
-0.1
-2
-0.2
-3
Dif f erence (RHS)
-4
-5
Jan-06
CPIH:Previously published (LHS)
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
-0.3
-0.4
CPIH: Revised OOH index and weight (LHS) -0.5
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
21
CPIH - next steps
• ONS has made information available to the UK
Statistics Authority’s Monitoring and Assessment
team to enable them to judge when it would be
appropriate for the re-assessment of CPIH as a
National Statistic to start
• Following this, expectation is that revisions in CPIH
will revert to that which is usual for consumer price
indices
22
Definitive house price index
• Following successful consultation and user
engagement a business case for a single,
definitive HPI is being developed.
• Work underway to address remaining
methodological challenges.
• Publication of final methodology in summer.
• Further information on transition to new index
in autumn.
23
Construction Prices - background
• Construction Price and Cost Indices were
formerly the responsibility of BIS (produced
under contract by BCIS)
• In July 2013 contract awarded to AECOM
• Publication suspended by BIS and
subsequently de-designated in December
2014
• Responsibility transferred to ONS on 1 April
2015
24
Construction Prices - Interim solution
• User demand for us to make construction price
statistics available quickly – particularly for
Construction Output.
• The interim solution is a project cost approach
that makes use of existing ONS data.
• New Work – uses AWE, SPPI and PPIs
• R&M – uses CPI and PPIs
• Full details published in article on 8th May
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/method-quality/specific/business-and-energy/output-in-theconstruction-industry/update-on-construction-price-statistics.pdf
25
Future for Construction Prices
• Publish data using interim methods on June 12th
• Interim solution not a substitute for full
development of Construction Price and Cost
Indices
• Working with ONS stakeholders on solutions
• Full details of long-term development plans will be
published as soon as possible.
• Users will be engaged in process
• Any questions...
Kat Pegler – 01633 456 468
[email protected]
26
What’s next
Darren Morgan, Deputy Director, National Accounts
Coordination
ONS Economic Forum
19 May 2015
27
What’s next - outline
•
•
•
•
•
Blue Book 2015 plans and timetable
New GNI (Gross National Income) figures
Forthcoming changes to claimant count
Developing a strategy for economic statistics
Productivity puzzle unresolved – further work
planned
• Creation of micro-business research hub
• New ONS website
28
Blue and Pink Books 2015
Darren Morgan
Deputy Director National Accounts Co-ordination
Economic Forum: 19 May 2015
29
What am I going to cover?
• Timing
• Scope
• Information already available
• When will further information become available?
30
Timing
31
Timing
• 30 Sep 15: Quarterly National Accounts & Balance of Payments
consistent with Blue and Pink Books
• 30 Oct 15: Blue and Pink Books published
32
Scope
33
Scope
Three types of changes:
1. GNI: improvements to remove ESA 1995 reservations
•
‘Exhaustiveness’
•
Non-Profit Institutions Serving Households
•
Cross Border Property Income
•
Repairs and maintenance on dwellings by households
•
Consumption of fixed capital on roads
•
Vehicle registration tax
34
Scope (cont.)
2. Classification Changes
• Network Rail: private to public sector
• Transport for London subsidiaries (most): Public Corps to Local Govt.
• 3G/4G phone spectrum sales: asset transaction to a rent transaction
• payable tax credits classified to Govt. expenditure
• payments from national govt. to multilateral development banks: reclassified from equities to current transfers
35
Scope (cont.)
3. Other methodological changes
•
deflation of software in Gross Fixed Capital Formation
•
construction prices
•
non-monetary gold
•
last base and reference year moved to 2012 from 2011
36
Information already available
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/method-quality/specific/economy/nationalaccounts/changes-to-national-accounts/blue-book-and-pink-book-2015-changes/index.html
37
Information already available
1. Deflation of Software in GFCF (26 March 2015)
•
•
two aspects:

own account production (in-house development)

bought in pre-packaged software
current method:

•
SPPI for computer consultancy, programming & related activities
new method:

US PPI adjusted by PPP for bought in pre-packaged software

no change for own account production
38
Information already available
1. Deflation of Software in GFCF (cont.)
•
Indicative Impact:

1997 to 2013: GFCF chain volume measure – growth revised up 2.6 ppts
300000
290000
280000
£ million
270000
260000
BB14 GFCF chained volume measure
250000
BB15 GFCF indicative chained volume
measure
240000
230000
220000
210000
200000
19971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013
39
Information already available
2. Changes to GNI on an ESA 1995 basis (19 May 2015)
Background
•
GNI perhaps not as familiar as GDP
•
GNI = GDP + net property income from abroad
•
Property income: includes distributed income of corporations.....

interest, dividends, repatriated profits

...and rent on land
40
Information already available
2. Changes to GNI on an ESA 1995 basis
Background
•
used in calculation of EU Member States’ contribution to EU budget
•
comparability key!
•
Eurostat audits and makes recommendations to all countries to make improvements
•
related to ESA 1995 standards
41
Information already available
2. Changes to GNI on an ESA 1995 basis
Changes
•
•
Exhaustiveness: improved estimates for:

concealed income/activity

under-coverage of unincorporated small businesses
Non-Profit Institutions Serving Households: builds on 2014 improvements:
 NPISH unchanged but impact on other sectors and GDP reduced
 improvements to the weights given to the new data
42
Information already available
2. Changes to GNI on an ESA 1995 basis
Changes
•
Cross Border Property Income:

MFI FDI income measured on current operating performance basis (COP)
rather than all-inclusive (AI) basis: removes holding gains and losses

reinvested earnings of mutual funds

second homes: UK abroad and foreign residents in the UK

no impact on GDP

first two already in UK published figures
43
Information already available
2. Changes to GNI on an ESA 1995 basis
Changes
•
•
Repairs & Maintenance on dwellings by households:

small double counting with minor repairs in household intermediate
consumption and GFCF removed

DIY spending on major repairs
Vehicle Registration Tax:
 treated as tax of a product rather than a fee for a sale of a service
44
Changes to GNI on ESA 1995 basis: indicative impact
•
-£11.9bn or 0.1% of total GNI over the 2002 to 2010 period
45
Changes to GNI on ESA 1995 basis: indicative impact
•
-£11.9bn or 0.1% of total GNI over the 2002 to 2010 period
46
When will further information become available?
47
When will further information become available?
Content
Impact on GDP Current Price annual estimates 1997-2010
Provisional Date
12 June 2015
To include changes due to new methods or data which are not ESA1995 based
Impact on GDP Chained Volume Measure annual estimates 1997-2010
Impact on GDP Current Price and Chained Volume Measure quarterly and annual estimates
1997-2013
24 June 2015
5 August 2015
Summary of impact of changes on Sector and Financial Accounts 1997-2013
9 September 2015
Summary of impact of changes on Balance of Payments 1997-2013
9 September 2015
Quarterly National Accounts Q2 2015 (consistent with Blue Book 2015)
30 September 2015
Balance of Payments Q2 2015 (consistent with Pink Book 2015)
30 September 2015
Impact of changes in the national accounts and economic commentary for 2015 Quarter 2
(Apr to June)
30 September 2015
GDP(Output) improvement project report
30 September 2015
Blue Book and Pink Book 2015
30 October 2015
48
Forthcoming changes to claimant count
• Currently based on Job Seeker’s Allowance (JSA)
• Universal Credit (UC) introduced in April 2013, to ‘pilot’
areas across UK
• Minimal impact at UK level
• Headline claimant count (CC) currently excludes UC
• UC roll-out has now increased across the UK
• As the impact of UC exclusion sufficiently increased at a
UK level, an indicative CC was introduced in June 2014 as the total of JSA and UC
• From June 2015, the indicative figure will become the
official Claimant Count
• JSA figures will continue to be produced, but as a
49
supplementary dataset
Productivity puzzle remains unresolved
Index nos, 2011=100
120
100
80
60
40
Output per Worker
Output per Hour
20
0
1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
50
Developing an economic statistics
strategy
• Fulfilling the mission of the official statistics system: “High
quality statistics, analysis and advice to help Britain make
better decisions.”
• Initial phase of horizon scanning – to determine how we
think the requirements from economic statistics will change
over the next 5-10 years as a result of:
o
o
o
o
o
Future policy changes
Structural economic changes
Measurement challenges
New data sources
Other user needs
• Also - what can we stop doing?
• Programme of consultations, workshops and other events
for users to give their views
51
Coverage of micro businesses
• In 2014, an estimated 43% of UK businesses were
registered for VAT and/or PAYE and therefore appear on
Inter Departmental Business Register (IDBR).
• The share of economic activity and employment
represented by remaining businesses is small, and an
adjustment for IDBR under-coverage is made in GDP
estimates. This will be updated in Blue Book 2015.
• ONS working with Middlesex University, University of St
Andrews and BIS to pool information from different
sources and create an on-line data repository in order to
understand the UK’s business population – especially
the unregistered portion - in terms of size, employment,
activities, growth, etc.
52
ONS website development: private to
public Beta
• Successful live launch of experimental prototype
(Alpha), Dec 2014
• Currently in private Beta phase
• Developing a publishing tool with the aim to
improve speed of publishing
• Setting up secure and efficient infrastructure with
the aim of updating the site very regularly after
launch
• On track to release a Beta for testing with users at
scale over the Summer
53
Measuring living standards
Philip Wales
ONS Economic Forum
19 May 2015
54
‘Measuring living standards’
• Lots of interest in statistics on living standards over the last few
months
• Contributions to debate on measurement:
•
•
•
The Johnson Review of Consumer Price Statistics, January 2015
UK Statistics Authority monitoring review “The coherence and accessibility
of official statistics on income and earnings”, February 2015
Correspondence between Ed Miliband MP and Sir Andrew Dilnot on
‘Statistics on living standards’, Jan/Mar 2015
• Purpose of this session
•
•
•
Recent developments to relevant existing ONS statistics
Recent ONS analysis which contributes to the debate on earnings growth
To set out plans for future developments
55
Improving measurement
• Contributors to the debate on measuring of living standards have
highlighted several areas for potential improvement:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
More holistic (‘single measure’ – Ed Miliband)
Timely
Comprehensive – including impacts of wages, prices, taxes & benefits
Meaningful – including distributional information
Within a coherent framework
Deflated appropriately
Coverage – NPISH, self employment income
56
GDP & RHDI growth
RHDI per capita & GDP per capita, 2008=100
105
RHDI Incl. NPISH per capita
GDP per capita
100
95
90
85
80
75
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
57
RHDI growth, incl. & excl. NPISH
RHDI per capita, Incl. & Excl. NPISH, 2008=100
105
RHDI Incl. NPISH per capita
RHDI Excl. NPISH per capita
100
95
90
85
80
75
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
58
RHDI growth, incl. & excl. NPISH
RHDI per capita, Incl. & Excl. NPISH, Quarter on same quarter a year ago, %
4
RHDI per capita incl. NPISH
RHDI per capita excl. NPISH
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
59
Household consumption per capita
HHFCE per capita, indexed to pre-downturn peak
Q1 2008
Q2 1990
Pre-downturn peak = 100
Q2 1979
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
-4
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
Number of quarters following pre-downturn peak in GDP
Source: ONS Economic Review, April 2015 edition
60
Household consumption per capita
HHFCE per capita, indexed to pre-downturn peak
Percentage points
Net Tourism
Non-discretionary
Semi-discretionary
Discretionary
HHFCE
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6
-7
-8
Q1 2008
Q1 2009
Q1 2010
Q1 2011
Q1 2012
Source: ONS Economic Review, April 2015 edition
Q1 2013
Q1 2014
61
ASHE analysis
Distribution of weekly earnings: 2013
9%
Total
8%
Total median
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
62
ASHE analysis
Distribution of weekly earnings: 2013
9%
Matched
Total
8%
Total median
Matched median
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
63
ASHE analysis
Distribution of weekly earnings: 2014
9%
Matched
Total
8%
Total median
Matched median
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
64
ASHE analysis
• Note published which analyses how the earnings distribution has
changed through time, examining median earnings of the ‘full time
continuously employed’ in particular. (18th May)
65
ASHE analysis
• An alternative way of using ASHE is to examine the distribution of
earnings growth rates each period.
• This approach answers the question ‘what is the average
experience of earnings growth?’
• Also relates closely to questions of labour market spare capacity
and wage growth: while the long run determinant of wages is
productivity, the ‘tightness’ of the labour market is also important –
especially in the short run.
66
ASHE analysis
Distribution of Gross Weekly Nominal Earnings Growth, %
% of continuously employed who received within 0.5pp of the stated earnings growth
2006
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
Fraction of employees
who received 0%
nominal earnings growth
4%
2%
0%
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Gross weekly earnings growth (%)
10
12
14
16
18
67
ASHE analysis
Distribution of Gross Weekly Nominal Earnings Growth, %
% of continuously employed who received within 0.5pp of the stated earnings growth
2014
2006
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Gross weekly earnings growth (%)
10
12
14
16
18
68
ASHE analysis
Distribution of Gross Weekly Nominal Earnings Growth, %
% of continuously employed who received within 0.5pp of the stated earnings growth
2014
2007
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Gross weekly earnings growth (%)
10
12
14
16
18
69
ASHE analysis
Distribution of Gross Weekly Nominal Earnings Growth, %
% of continuously employed who received within 0.5pp of the stated earnings growth
2014
2008
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Gross weekly earnings growth (%)
10
12
14
16
18
70
ASHE analysis
Distribution of Gross Weekly Nominal Earnings Growth, %
% of continuously employed who received within 0.5pp of the stated earnings growth
2014
2009
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Gross weekly earnings growth (%)
10
12
14
16
18
71
ASHE analysis
Distribution of Gross Weekly Nominal Earnings Growth, %
% of continuously employed who received within 0.5pp of the stated earnings growth
2014
2010
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Gross weekly earnings growth (%)
10
12
14
16
18
72
ASHE analysis
Distribution of Gross Weekly Nominal Earnings Growth, %
% of continuously employed who received within 0.5pp of the stated earnings growth
2014
2011
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Gross weekly earnings growth (%)
10
12
14
16
18
73
ASHE analysis
Distribution of Gross Weekly Nominal Earnings Growth, %
% of continuously employed who received within 0.5pp of the stated earnings growth
2014
2012
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Gross weekly earnings growth (%)
10
12
14
16
18
74
ASHE analysis
Distribution of Gross Weekly Nominal Earnings Growth, %
% of continuously employed who received within 0.5pp of the stated earnings growth
2014
2013
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Gross weekly earnings growth (%)
10
12
14
16
18
75
ASHE analysis
Distribution of Gross Weekly Nominal Earnings Growth, %
% of continuously employed who received within 0.5pp of the stated earnings growth
2014
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Gross weekly earnings growth (%)
10
12
14
16
18
76
Distribution of earnings growth
Proportion of Cont. FT employees by real earnings growth rate
% of employees employed fulltime in both years
100%
90%
Above 10%
80%
5% to 10%
70%
2.5% to 5%
60%
0.5% to 2%
50%
-0.5% to 0.5%
40%
-2.5% to -0.5%
30%
-5% to -2%
-10% to -5%
20%
Below -10%
10%
0%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: ONS Economic Review, March 2015 edition
77
Drivers of earnings growth
Contributions to average nominal earnings growth by average earnings quantile:
2014
%
Hours
Variable pay
Basic pay
Total
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
2
3
4
5 to 7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
Earnings nominal growth quantile
Source: ONS Economic Review, May 2015 edition
Note: Quantiles of earnings growth for the continuously full-time employed population
78
Movers and stayers
Job-movers and stayers among the cont. emp. pop. by quantile of earnings growth, 2014
%
100
90
80
70
60
50
Different job
Same job
40
30
20
10
0
2
3
4
5 and
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
79
*The 5th quantile contains those with 0% earnings growth, who make up more than 5% of the continuously employed population.
Future Plans - Timeliness
• ONS investigating ‘now-casting’ techniques to provide
early estimates of key indicators (e.g. median equivalised
disposable income)
• Now-casting involves updating existing data to reflect:
• Changes in earnings, labour market participation, population
structure, etc.
• Policy changes, including changes to tax thresholds and benefit
rates, as well as more structural reforms
• Initial methodological article to be published beginning July
• Subject to user feedback on approach/methods, intend to release
experimental 2014/15 figures late Summer.
80
Future Plans - Alternative measures of
saving ratio
• Following BB14 changes, there is more unobserved income (ie
imputed employers’ pension contributions) in the saving ratio. There
is some user demand for an additional measure which captures
household saving excluding these ‘unseen’ items.
• ONS has been exploring ways of producing this, starting with the
OECD’s ‘Income, Consumption and Wealth’ (ICW) framework for
statistics.
• Several variants proposed, which vary in their treatment of
1.
2.
3.
4.
Social contributions in kind
Pension entitlements
Payments relating to insurance policies
Employers social contributions.
• Some preliminary results – affecting the level, rather than the profile
of savings – but which will be subject to further consultation
81
Indicative Initial findings
Savings ratio: multiple bases: %
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
UK Accounts published saving ratio
BoE Saving out of available income ratio
OECD ICW Framework
Saving Ratio with D.44 removed
Saving Ratio with D.12, D.442 and D.612 removed
Saving Ratio with D.12, D.44, D.612 and D.8 removed
2013
82
Event on UKSA Monitoring Review
• UKSA to hold an event on the Monitoring Review of
Income and Earnings on 2nd July.
• ONS will be presenting some recent developments at
this event, and will be looking ahead to the broader
income and earnings statistics agenda
• If you are interested in attending this event, please
give your contact details to Malindi Myers at the close
of this session
83
ONS Economic Forum
The next Economic Forum will take place on
Monday 13 July 2015
Email: [email protected]
Twitter: @ONS
#ONSeconomy
Website: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/about-ons/getinvolved/events/events/economic-forum/index.html
19 May 2015
84