Transcript Macro and Micro Dimensions in the Politics of Austerity

6.12.11
CSPP
THINKING COMPARATIVELY
MACRO AND MICRO DIMENSIONS IN THE POLITICS OF AUSTERITY
PROFESSOR RICHARD ROSE FBA
Director, Centre for the Study of Public Policy
PSA Greek Politics Specialist Group
THE POLITICS OF EXTREME AUSTERITY: GREECE BEYOND THE CRISIS
University of Strathclyde
8th December 2011
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WHERE IS THE CRISIS?
Top down macro-economic or bottom-up household?
Vulnerable countries
An international stimulus: all countries equally affected
Macro-economic: a crisis of banks, ministries of finance
But vulnerability differs with national economic policies
Vulnerable people
Micro-level: poor people, indebted people.
All countries have some vulnerable and some secure people
but proportions differ.
Source: Richard Rose, “Micro-economic Responses to a
Macro-economic Crisis: a Pan-European Perspective”, Jl of
Communist Studies and Transition Politics, 27, 3-4, (2011)
264-384.
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NATIONAL CRISIS WORSE THAN HOUSEHOLD CRISIS
Q. How would you judge the current situation in each of the following?
The financial situation of your household. The situation of the national
economy? (4 point scale: very good, good, bad, very bad)
(% saying situation bad or very bad)
%
100
Household economy
National economy
86
90
77
80
70
56
60
44
50
49
40
30
23
20
10
0
Northern
Mediterranean
CEE
Source: Eurobarometer 72.4, A2a.1, A2a.5 (October-November 2009),
27 EU countries, unweighted N=26,830.
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EUROPEANS DIFFER IN VULNERABILITY
49%
Has attribute
Does not
Employed
40%
Credit card
28%
Has mortgage
27%
Rural resident
27%
Tertiary education
23%
Pensioner
10%
Anxious job loss
8%
Unemployed
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Percent adult population
Source: Eurobarometer 72.1, fieldwork August-September 2009.
Nationwide samples of 27 EU member states. National responses
weighted equally for pooled analysis. Number of unweighted
respondents, 25,812.
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OCCASIONAL PROBLEMS BUT MOST COPING
Q. Which of the following best describes how your household is keeping up with
all its bills and credit commitments at the moment?
No difficulty
41%
Behind with
many bills 2%
Falling behind
a bit 4%
A constant
struggle
18%
Source: Pooled survey
EuroBaromeer 2009
Okay, occasional
problems
35%
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DIFFERENCES IN COPING BY COUNTRY
Q 37. Which of the following best describes how your household
is keeping up with all its bills and credit commitments at the
moment?
North
Med. CEE Difference
North-CEE
(% respondents)
No difficulty
58
25
33
25
Okay but problems 30
38
38
-8
from time to time
Keeping up a
9
30
21
-12
constant struggle
Keeping up
(97)
(93)
(92) (5)
Falling behind with 2
some bills
Real problems, be- 1
hind with many bills
Falling behind
(3)
5
6
-4
2
3
-2
(7)
(9)
(-6)
Source: Eurobarometer 72.1, Q37, 27 EU countries, fieldwork
August-September 2009, unweighted N=26,719. Don’t knows
excluded.
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WHO IS HARDEST HIT WHERE?
♦People who were worse off before the crisis, e.g.
less educated, lower social class.
♦People who live in EU countries with low GDP.
♦Pensioners more secure than educated.
employed .
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DO GREEKS DIFFER IN THEIR REACTION TO AUSTERITY?
Can only show Greece is different if we specify:
♦ Which countries it differs from?
Cyprus, Italy, Portugal, Ireland, Latvia? UK?
♦ How is Greece different?
Cause of problems, response or both?
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POSSIBLE EXPLANATIONS FOR GREEK DIFFERENCES
♦Austerity measures worse? Not by standards of Ireland
♦Less economically literate? Can't understand an end to
free lunch
♦More Socialist? But many farmers, self employed
♦More anti-European?
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AN EGREGIOUS GREECE REQUIRES A HOMOGENEOUS EU
♦Every EU country divided in its response to cuts
♦United in dislike of banks and bankers
♦26 country opposition to unconditionally transferring
funds to Greece
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