Transcript File

Imperialist Globalization
Crisis & Resistance
Economic Slowdown since 1970s
Ave. Annual GDP Growth Rates
(%)
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
US
Japan
Germany
Euro-12
G-7
1960-69
4.6
10.2
4.4
5.3
5.1
1969-79
3.3
5.2
3.6
3.7
3.6
1979-90
2.9
4.6
2.15
2.4
3
1990-95
2.4
1.7
2
1.6
2.5
1995-2000
4.1
0.8
1.7
2.5
1.9
Ave. Annual % Change in GDP
per Worker
Declining Productivity
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
US
Japan
Germany
Euro-11
1960-69
2.5
8.6
4.3
5.2
1969-79
1.3
4.4
3
3.2
1979-90
1.15
3
1.5
1.9
1990-95
1.2
0.7
2.1
1.9
1995-2000
2.3
1.2
1.2
1.3
Ave. Annual Change (%) in Nonresidential Capital Stock
Slowdown in Capital Stock Formation
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
US (net)
Japan (gross)
Germany (gross)
1960-69
3.9
11.3
6.6
1969-79
3.8
9.5
4.5
1979-90
3
6.9
3
1990-95
2
5.3
3
3.8
4.5
3.1
1995-2000
Decline in Profitability
Average Net Profit Rate (%)
25
20
15
10
5
0
Japan
Germany
US
G7
1950-70
21.6
23.2
12.9
17.6
1970-93
17.2
13.8
9.9
13.3
Slowdown of World Economy
In the last decade, at least one major
financial crisis erupted somewhere in the
world every two or three years – Japan in
1990, Mexico, Argentina and Brazil in
1994-95, East Asia in 1997-98, Russia
Grow th rate
and Brazil in 1998-99, and so on. Linear (Grow th rate)
Year
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1970
% grow th
Chart 4: Grow th Rate of Real World Gross Dom estic Product,
1970-2001 (market exchange rate w eighted)
Fundamental Contradiction in
the Capitalist System
Social Production
Division of labor
More trade; diverse
products & inputs
Ever widening scale of
production &
distribution under
centralized control
Private Profit
Wage restraint
Labor-displacement
Anarchy of production
M&As, layoffs
vs. Constricted Markets
Crisis of Overproduction
Countervailing the Crisis of Overproduction
State Monopoly Capitalism
Keynesian State-interventionism
nature: expansionary programs to counter
contracting markets & falling effective
demand
economic basis: post-depression recovery
(1930s) & post-war reconstruction (1950s1960s)  i.e. after massive destruction of
productive forces
social basis: social unrest and agitation of
trade union movement
political basis: anti-communist containment
strategy
Growth in Real Wages
1950-73
1973-93
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Japan
Germany
US
Growth in Real Social Expenditures
10.0
ave. annual % change
Average Annual Change
in Real Wages (%)
7
1960-75
1975-80
1980-85
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
-
U.S.
Germany
Japan
G-7
From long-boom to long-downturn
(Average annual rates of change, except for net profits which are averages)
Manufacturing
Net profit rate
Output
Net capital stock Gross capital stock
1950-70 1970-93 1950-73 1973-93 1950-73 1973-93 1950-73 1973-93
U.S.
24. 35
14. 5
4. 3
1. 9
3. 8
2. 25
Germany
23. 1
10. 9
5. 1
0. 9
5. 7
0. 9
6. 4
1. 7
Japan
40. 4
20. 4
14. 1
5
14. 5
5
14. 7
5
G-7 *
26. 2
15. 7
5. 5
2. 1
4. 8
3. 7
Private business
U.S.
Germany
Japan
G-7 *
Net profit rate
Output
Net capital stock Gross capital stock
1950-70 1970-93 1950-73 1973-93 1950-73 1973-93 1950-73 1973-93
12. 9
9. 9
4. 2
2. 6
3. 8
3
23. 2
13. 8
4. 5
2. 2
6
2. 6
5. 1
3
21. 6
17. 2
9. 1
4. 1
9. 35
7. 1
17. 6
13. 3
4. 5
2. 2
-5
4. 5
4. 3
* G7 net profit rate extends to 1990; German net capital stock covers 1955-93
Source: Robert Brenner, The Boom and the Bubble: The U.S. in the World Economy (Verso, New York, 2002), Table 1.1, p. 8.
Neoliberal “Globalization”
tight credit
fiscal austerity
laissez-faire
erosion of social rights
and entitlements
even as monopoly
capital continues to
enjoy protection and
support
neoliberal policy
conditionalities
imposed by imperialistcontrolled multilaterals
(IMF-WB-WTO) on
oppressed countries
Crisis of Overproduction  Falling Profits
To Overcome Crisis of Overproduction &
Boost Profits, monopoly capitalists must
secure:
cheaper raw materials
cheaper labor
access to markets
“Globalisasyon” =
estratehiya ng Imperyalista
para makaalpas sa Krisis ng
Sobrang Produksyon
Capital Exports takes on increasing importance
Selected Indicators on FDI and International Production
Value at Current Prices
Item
(billions of dollars)
1982
1990
2000
2001
FDI Inflows
59
FDI Outflows
28
FDI Inward Stock
734
FDI Outward Stock
552
Cross border M&As
..
Sales of Foreign Affiliates
2,541
Gross Product of Foreign Affiliates
594
Total Assets of Foreign Affiliates
1,959
Exports of Foreign Affiliates
670
Employment of Foreign Affiliates (thousands) 17,987
Memorandum
GDP (in current prices)
Gross Fixed Capital Formation
Royalties & Licence Fees Receipts
Exports of goods & non-factor services
Source: Table I.1 of UNCTAD WIR 2002
10,805
2,285
9
2,081
FDI203outflows
1,271
increased
41
233
1,150
times
1,874
6,314
1,721
151
5,479
1,423
5,759
1,169
23,858
5,976
1,144
15,680
3,167
21,102
3,572
45,587
735
621
6,846
6,582
601
18,517
3,495
24,952
2,600
53,581
21,672
4,841
27
4,375
31,895
6,466
66
7,036
31,900
6,680
73
7,430
Annual growth rate
(percent)
1986-1990 1991-1995 1996-2000 1999
2000
2001
23.6
20.0
40.1
56.3
37.1 -50.7
24.3
15.8
36.7
52.3
32.4 -55.0
15.6
9.1
17.9
20.0
22.2
9.4
19.8
10.4
17.8
17.4
25.1
7.6
26.4
23.3
49.8
44.1
49.3 -47.5
34.1
15.1
9.2
# 16.9
of TNCs10.5
= 64,59214.5
as of 2001
18.8
6.7
12.9
15.2
32.9
8.3
# 19.8
of Foreign
Affliliates
=
851,167
13.4
19.0
21.4
24.7
9.9
14.9 = US$
7.418.5 Trillion
9.7
11.7
0.3
Sales
or1.92 ½ times
6.8
5.1
11.7
20.6
10.2
7.1
value of world exports (58% of
Global GDP)
11.5
13.9
22.1
15.8
6.5
5.0
14.3
8.7
1.2
1.3
5.3
4.2
3.5
4.0
5.4
3.4
2.5
3.3 ..
5.5 ..
11.7
2.0
-5.4
FDI Concentrated in Advanced Capitalist Countries
Distribution of Population & FDI, 2001
100%
Central & Eastern Europe
80%
Developing Countries
Other Developed Countries
60%
United States
40%
Japan
Other Western Europe
20%
European Union
0%
Population
Inflows
Outflows
Inward
Stock
Outward
Stock
Centralization of Capital through M&As
Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) Inflows
in billion US$
Most FDI in recent yrs. has been
in the form of1,400
monopolies merging
their existing1,200
productive capacity
or monopolies
taking over existing
1,000
assets in other countries, rather
800
than creating new
productive
600
capacity.
Cross border M&As
Greenfield FDI
400
200
1990
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Monopoly Capital taking over key sectors
millions US$
Figure
8. Cross-border M&As, by industry of seller
For instance, there
were
US$438 million worth of M&As
1,200,000
in the education
sector in 2001
compared to just US$4 million
Others
1,000,000
worth in 1996. In the health
Business Services
sector, the
value of M&As
Trade
800,000
Social Services
concluded jumped from
Transport, Storage & Commn
US$336600,000
million in 1996 to
EGW
US$3.4 billion in 1997; this
Finance
400,000
slowed in
2001 but was still
Manufacturing
worth a substantial US$1.9
Mining & Agri
billion. 200,000
0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Finance Capital
The combined assets of 50 of the
world’s largest banks and diversified
financial companies account for 60%
of the Economist’s estimate of a $20
trillion global stock of productive
capital (Hoover’s Handbook of World
Business, 1993).
Global Auto Industry: Strategic Alliances
Major Alliance
Share (%) of
as of July 2000
Global Production
General Motors-Fiat
GM (100% ), Isuzu (49% ), Fiat (20% ), Fuji (20% ), Suzuki (10% )
23.9
Ford-Mazda-Daewoo
Ford (100% ) Volvo Cars (100% ), Mazda (33% ), Land Rover (100% ), Ssangyong (52% )
17.2
DaimlerChrysler-Mitsubushi-Hyundai DaimlerChrsyler (100% ), Mitsubishi Cars (34% ), Hyundai (100% ), Kia (51% ), Asia (16% )
13.6
Toyota
Toyota (100% ), Daihatsu (51% ), Hino (34% )
8.6
Renault-Nissan
Renault (100% ), Nissan (37% ), Samsung (70% )
9.5
Volkswagen-Scania
VW group (100% ), Scania (19% )
4.4
Honda
4.6
Pegeot-Citroen
4.4
BMW
1.6
Others
6.3
Source: Global Auto 2000, International Metalworkers' Federation
Partners (% stake)
Oil Industry: From “7 Sisters” to 3
Oil Supermonopolies
Assets
Revenues
Profits
Capitalization
($ millions) ($ millions)
($ millions)
($ millions)
Exxon-Mobil (US)
4
143,174
187,510
15,105
270,805
British Petroleum (UK)
6
141,158
174,218
8,010
191,054
Royal-Dutch Shell (UK/Netherlands)
8
111,543
135,211
10,852
192,256
TotalFinaElf (France)
17
77,275
94,243
6,853
104,063
Chevron-Texaco (US)
21
77,572
97,863
3,931
93,137
Source: Revenues, Profits, Assets, Capitalization from Forbes Global, World's 500 Biggest Companies, July 22, 2002;
Oil Major
Rank in
Forbes 500
Oil Reserves
Employees
(billion barrels)
Exxon-Mobil (US)
21
130,000
British Petroleum (UK)
15
100,000
Royal-Dutch Shell (UK/Netherlands)
19
102,000
Source: Data on oil reserves and employment from Brar 2002, op.cit.
Top 3 Oil Majors
Blood for Oil Profits
in their attempts to
 scramble to control the
corner oil reserves, there
world’s dwindling nonis not a crime that these
renewable energy reserves
giants will not commit:
 demand for oil continues to
o BP maintains paramilitary
rise especially in the
thugs in in Colombia
advanced industrialized
o Shell enlists services of
countries. The imperialist
army, with all the attendant
countries have a greater
brutality, in Nigeria
dependence on oil today
o BP was implicated in
than at any other time in
overthrowing nationalist
the past.
Mossadeq regime in Iran
the more desperately they
struggle for control of
“Oiligarchy” move smoothly from
territories
the industry’s boardrooms to the
corridors of government
Biggest TNCs based in a handful of
imperialist countries
Country Distribution of Top 100 TNCs
Number of TNCs in Top 100
1990
1995
1999
US
28
30
26
EU
48
39
46
UK
12
10
8
Germany
9
9
12
France
14
11
13
Netherlands
4
4
5
Belgium
1
2
Japan
12
17
18
Impe Triad
88
86
90
Top 100 Total
100
100
100
Total Assets in billion US$
Total Foreign Assets in billion US$
Total Sales in billion US$
Total Foreign Sales in billion US$
Total Employment
Total Foreign Employment
Source: UNCTAD World Investment Report 2001, Table III.4 & III.5, p. 94-95
Share of Foreign Assets of Top 100
1990
1995
1999
31.5%
33.3%
33.3%
45.5%
43.8%
43.0%
8.9%
12.2%
12.3%
8.9%
12.2%
12.3%
10.4%
8.9%
11.6%
8.9%
8.2%
5.3%
1.0%
0.9%
12.0%
15.1%
15.4%
89%
92%
92%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
5,092
2,124
4,318
2,123
13,279,327
6,050,283
Monopoly over Technology
100%
Rest of the World
90%
Switzerland
80%
Sweden
70%
Netherlands
60%
Canada
50%
Italy
40%
UK
30%
France
20%
Germany
Japan
10%
USA
0%
R&D expenditure
US Patents
Tech Fees
International Division of Labor
Share of Selected Economies in World Exports of
Manufactures and Manufacturing Value Added
Share (%) in World
Share (%) of World
Economy
Exports of Manufactures
Manufacturing VA
1980
1997
1980
1997
Developed Countries
82.3
70.9
64.5
73.3
Developing Countries
10.6
26.5
16.6
23.8
Latin America
1.5
3.5
7.1
6.7
Argentina
0.2
0.2
0.9
0.9
Brazil
0.7
0.7
2.9
2.7
Chile
0
0.1
0.2
0.2
Mexico
0.2
2.2
1.9
1.2
South & East Asia
6.0 /a
16.9
7.3
14
NIEs
5.1
8.9
1.7
4.5
Hong Kong
0.2
0.6
0.3
0.2
South Korea
1.4
2.9
0.7
2.3
Singapore
0.9
2.6
0.1
0.4
Taiwan
1.6
2.8
0.6
1.6
ASEAN
0.6
3.6
1.2
2.6
Indonesia
0.1
0.6
0.4
1
Malaysia
0.2
1.5
0.2
0.5
Philippines
0.1
0.5
0.3
0.3
Thailand
0.2
1
0.3
0.8
China
1.1 /b
3.8
3.3
5.8
India
0.4
0.6
1.1
1.1
Turkey
0.1
0.5
0.4
0.5
a/ excluding China
b/ 1984 data
Source: Table 3.5 UNCTAD Trade and Development Report 2002, p. 81
The imperialist powers still monopolize both finance and
productive capital and high value-added production. The
majority of other countries, on the other hand, are
consigned to raw materials production with a limited
number allowed a place in low value-added assembly
manufacturing for export.
Global Inequality
100%
90%
Hi-income OECD
80%
Eastern Europe & the CIS
70%
Sub-saharan Africa
60%
South Asia
50%
Latin America & Carribean
40%
East Asia & Pacific
30%
Arab States
20%
LDCs
10%
0%
Population
GDP
Overproduction & Financial Speculation
•In 1976, 80% of all international transactions
involved the buying and selling of goods and
services. By 1997 only 2.5% of international
transactions involved the buying and selling of
the same; some 97.5% were for speculation
Aggregate Net Resource Flows to
Developing Countries
300.0
250.0
Grants
Portfolio Equity Flow s
•In the last decade, at least one major
financial crisis erupted somewhere in the
world every two or three years – Japan in
1990, Mexico, Argentina and Brazil in 199495, East Asia in 1997-98, Russia and Brazil in
1998-99, and so on.
Net FDI
US$ billions
200.0
150.0
Net Flow of Long-term
Debt
100.0
50.0
(50.0)
1970
1980
1990
2000
2001
•These crises have severe and enduring
adverse impacts on working people while
multinational creditor banks and financial
speculators make a killing, literally and
figuratively.
Destruction of Productive Forces
“Accumulation of
wealth at one pole is
at the same time
accumulation of toil,
slavery, ignorance,
brutality, mental
degradation, at the
opposite pole.”
- Karl Marx
 Global unemployment = 160 M as of 2000.
 3 B or 1/3 of the world’s labour force are either
unemployed, underemployed or earn less than
is needed to keep their families out of poverty.
 a growing share of the working population is
forced into lower-income and insecure forms of
employment. In unindustrialized countries,
more and more people are forced to survive in
the informal sector where earnings are low and
erratic and labor standards are not enforced.
 1.2 B live on less than US$1 a day, around 1.1
billion people lack access to safe drinking
water, and 2.4 billion lack access to improved
sanitation
Third World Debt
1970
1980
1990
Total Debt Stock (US$ billion)
Long-term Debt
Public & Publicly Guaranteed
Short-term Debt
IMF Credit
72.80
609.40
1,458.40
86%
74%
81%
* Cumulative
65% debt service
63%
76%
13% = US$4.2
24%
17%
from 1980-2000
1%
2%
2%
trillion.
Total Debt Service (US$ billion)
Principal Repayments
Interest Payments
• total debt9.2
stock has93.4
grown
73.9%
47.6%
33 times in
just 3 decades.
52.4%
Now over26.1%
US$2.4 trillion
Debt Stock as % of Exports
88.0
• 3W ..debt stock is now
Debt Stock as % of Gross National Income equivalent 10.9
to 40% of21.0
the
Debt Service as % of Exports
..
13.5
combined
gross national
Interest Payments as % of Exports
..
7.1
incomes
of 188-89
these countries,
Source: World Bank Global Development Finance
2002, pp.
from just over 10% in 1970.
2000
2001
2,492.00
82%
60%
15%
3%
2,442.10
82%
60%
15%
3%
163.8
57.1%
42.9%
398.8
68.2%
31.8%
381.9
68.0%
32.0%
161.0
34.1
18.1
7.8
113.3
39.1
18.1
5.8
112.2
38.2
17.6
5.6