Transcript Understanding and Planning a `Prosperous Way Down`

Understanding and Planning A
Prosperous Way Down
Howard T. Odum and
Elisabeth C. Odum
Presentation by Thomas Abel
Our Futures

Now is a time of:
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Large world
populations
Stress on many
ecosystems
Economic problems
Growing social
inequality
What will our futures
look like?
Our Futures
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Some think our economies can grow forever, that
any limits will be overcome by technology –
Techno-optimists
Others predict the collapse of nature and
economies – Dystopians
Two extremes
Techno-optimists
Dystopia
Our Futures
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But maybe there is path in between the two
extremes
A way that recognizes the importance of
ecosystems and the limits to resources
A way that offers hope that we can maintain the
health and dignity of people, and the essences of
life that are meaningful to us…
…a prosperous way down
A Prosperous Way Down
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Growth, transition,
and descent
If the principles and
predictions within A
Prosperous Way Down
are correct, the world
has no choice, nor
should it fear the
inevitable course in
the latest chapter of
our human journey
Pulsing and Maximum Empower
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Pulsing
From the study of
ecosystems and
other systems, the
Odum’s argue that
“pulsing”, as they
call it, has four
common stages
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Growth
Transition
Descent
Low Energy
Restoration
Pulsing and Maximum Empower
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This is thought to be the
course taken by all systems of
nature, nested one within the
other, constructed from both
the living and non-living
Pulsing and Maximum Empower
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The Odum’s have
argued the ubiquity
of pulsing to be the
result of the selforganization of
energy in systems,
what they call the
‘maximum
empower principle’
A nested hierarchy of
pulsing patterns
Pulsing and Maximum Empower
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A similar pulsing
pattern has been
proposed by C.S.
Holling, called the
‘adaptive cycle’
The ‘Adaptive Cycle’
Pulsing and Maximum Empower
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Studies of many
kinds of systems in
many fields of
knowledge show
that pulsing is
usual
A time of gradual
production and
storing of reserves
is followed by a
short period of
intensive
consumption and
recycling
Pulsing and Maximum Empower
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Think of a shoe factory
When a pair of shoes is made, it
is not shipped immediately to the
retail store
That would be inefficient
Instead, managers wait until they
have made another pair, and
another pair, and another pair
Finally, at some point when the
storage of shoes is large enough
they are all shipped to the store
for sale
Shipping the shoes is the rapid
consumption pulse
Now the factory will slowly
rebuild its storage of shoes
Pulsing and Maximum Empower
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The traditional view
in ecology and one
model for our
economic future is
growth followed by
leveling off into a
steady state where
inflows balance
losses
It is popular with
many in our society
who seek
“sustainability” for
our civilization
“Sustainability”
Pulsing and Maximum Empower
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Pulsing, however,
prevails because
operations that pulse
transform more
energy than those at
steady state
Apparently, an
alternation of
production and
consumption provides
a better long-run
coupling of energy
intake for maximum
empower than a
steady state can
provide
Pulsing
prevails
Steady-state
leveling for
‘sustainability’
Pulsing and Maximum Empower
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Pulsing patterns
result from selforganization
A pulsing system of
some form appears
to be the stable one
in the long run,
repeating its
periods of storage
and use
There are optimum
frequencies for
maximum
performance
Pulsing and Maximum Empower
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Over a long, long time fossil
fuels have been stored in
the Earth
We are now participating in
the consuming pulse
Pulsing
Systems
Diagram
Blue - Nonrenewable Energy
Red - World Assets
Pulsing
Simulation
Pulsing and Maximum Empower
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One of many examples of Hubbert Peak
predictions
Campbell (2004)
Pulsing and Maximum Empower
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This presentation will
explore the issues of
energy resources, economy,
culture, information, policy,
and their relation to this
pulsing model and its
implications for our global
future
Our exploration will be
speculative (nobody can
see the future)
But our exploration will
alert you to new challenges
that we may all face, and
hopefully suggest valuable
new solutions
The State of the World
Today
Growth Becomes Transition
The Global Network
Chapter 9
The Global Scale and the Global
Network
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As the growth melee strips the
remaining natural capital of the
Earth and civilization reaches its
zenith…
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…the exclusive dominance of largescale capitalism can be replaced
with an emphasis on cooperation
with the environment and among
nations
Increased efficiencies are likely to
limit extremes in the distribution of
real wealth
International trade and loans can
be made equitable with emergy
evaluations
The Global Scale and the Global
Network
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A major change in
mechanisms for
international order is
evolving that can
replace the old
system of territorial
defenses with
shared military
forces
A reverse arms race
may occur, with
reductions leading
to further reductions
Territorial
defenses
Peacekeepers
Disarming
The Global Scale and the Global
Network
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Global sharing of
information and
increased trade are
joining the centers of
civilization in common
enterprise
Already something of a
new global culture is
developing with the
power to eliminate wars
by interconnected
futures and shared
aspirations and
attitudes for peace
Shared
information
for common
goals
The Global Scale and the Global
Network
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Examples of important
shared information
messages:
Protecting the purity of
the global atmosphere
Maintaining cordiality
and trade between
neighboring countries
that are culturally
different
Sharing technologies
that are useful anywhere
Protect our
atmosphere
Share technologies
Biogas generator
Maintain
cordial trade
relations
The Global Scale and the Global
Network
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Declining resources diminish
nations’ inclinations and
military capacities to
encroach on others
Providing that the remaining
fuel resources are shared in
open markets, great wars of
national competition, growth,
and conquest may never
come again
Small conflicts and
boundary disputes may be
within the power of
international organizations
to limit
United
Nations
The Global Scale and the Global
Network
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For a peaceful
transition we need to:
Share information
internationally rather
than sell it
Arrange trade and
loans with emergybased equity
Replace resource
exploitation with
environmental
mutualism
Share
Information
Emergy-based
trade equity
Environmental
mutualism
Energy Sources
Chapter 10
Evaluating Energy Sources
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Are there energy
limits to growth?
Is energy a
substitutable
commodity just
like any other?
Evaluating Energy Sources
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The value of an
energy source is
not in its yield
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Yield = energy
out (J, Kcal,
BTUs, etc)
When evaluating
and comparing
energy sources,
the important
issue is always
the net output
Net is Y/F
Crude oil, coal,
natural gas
Evaluating Energy Sources
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To get energy output
you must do work –
equipment, mining,
pumping,
transporting, storing,
refining, research,
new technologies,
labor, educating
technicians and
researchers, etc.
Net measurements
compare the output
against the input
Fuels must have a net
emergy output
significantly greater
than 1 to drive an
economy
Evaluating Energy Sources
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Although
many energy
alternatives
and
substitutions
are
possible…
Energy Sources
Evaluating Energy Sources
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… none in
sight now
have the
quantity and
quality to
substitute for
the rich fossil
fuels that
support the
high levels of
structure and Electricity Production
process of our
current
civilization
Coal-fired
Power
Plant
Evaluating Energy Sources
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Burning Fuel for Heat (many uses)
Emergy
Yield Ratio
Palm Oil
Plantation Wood
Natural gas, offshore
Oil, Mideast
Coal, Wyoming
Oil, Alaska
1.06
2.1
6.8
8.4
10.5
11.1
Evaluating Energy Sources
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Making Electricity
Emergy
Yield Ratio
Solar cell
Wind power
Coal power plant
Nuclear power
Hydroelectricity
Geothermal
0.41
2-?
2.5
4.5
10
13
Evaluating Energy Sources
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Whereas ecosystems,
forests, agricultural
systems, and
fisheries using
sunlight have net
emergy yields to
support society, solar
technology does not
because the dilute
nature of sunlight
prevents efficient
conversion directly to
mechanical or
electrical energy
Sunlight is a dilute source
Net emergy yield is 0.41
Evaluating Energy Sources
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The trend of
substitution of one
fuel for another
continues toward
more use of
natural gas, but
proven fuel
reserves are not
increasing
Liquid Natural Gas
Evaluating Energy Sources
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Because 71% of the
whole Earth
empower comes
from fossil fuels,
global consumption
eventually has to be
reduced to less than
one-third of its
current level
Eventually we must
live on one-third the
emergy
Evaluating Energy Sources
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For developed nations
the impact will be
greater
They depend on
nonrenewable
resources for 80-90%
of their energy
They will eventually
have to reduce either
their populations or
their living standard
(emergy use) by 8090%.
Evaluating Energy Sources
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However, with
reduced populations
we can look forward
to a new but smaller
agrarian economy,
green again,
enriched with
knowledge developed
in the fuel-rich
century of
complexity
Transition
Transition
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As we pass
through ‘transition’,
how do we…
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Sustain nations?
Sustain people?
Sustaining a Nation
Chapter 11
Sustaining a Nation during Transition
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To extend the
summit we need to
sustain inputs
(national emergy
budget) and waste it
less
We need incentives
to encourage
favorable balances
of international
exchange and
energy conservation
Sustaining a Nation during Transition
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Cooperation in climax
ecosystems
Ecosystem analogies
suggest good national
policy
Except in early stages
of colonization,
cooperation among
units maximizes
empower
Keeping the climate
stable helps sustain
the economy
Ecosystem Engineers
Sustaining a Nation during Transition
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Cooperation in climax
ecosystems
Making trading partners
prosperous assures
continued jobs at home
Sharing military
expenditures reduces
the costs of defense for
each nation
Mutualism
Sustaining a Nation during Transition
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National energy policy
Nations should maintain
access to those primary
fuel sources with the
highest emergy yield
ratios
Sustaining a Nation during Transition
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Trade policy
Nations should seek
to maintain a positive
emergy exchange
With a positive
emergy trade balance,
nations can maintain
what is essential in
their way of life for
some time
Sustaining a Nation during Transition
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Trade policy
For equitable trade
between any two
nations, all
exchanges should be
balanced (except
fuel imports) with
treaties for emergy
equity
Sustaining a Nation during Transition
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Trade policy
Only fuel exporters
should receive a
negative emergy
exchange, but due to
their fortune in fuels
they should easily
sustain a high
standard of living by
using a sufficient
portion of fuel for
their own domestic
development
Dubai
Sustaining a Nation during Transition
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Trade policy
All countries should
limit exports of raw
products, and use
them within their
country
Countries that sell raw
products almost always
receive less emergy in
international trade than
is embodied in the
product
Exports of real wealth
Sustaining a Nation during Transition
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Domestic resource use
Resource use at home
lowers prices of food,
housing, paper, and
fuel within a country
and raises the standard
of living
Less energy goes for
transportation
Sustaining a Nation during Transition
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Positive emergy
trade balance is
aided by:
Energy conservation,
especially by
eliminating wasted
emergy of cars and
fuel
Trade treaties that
moderate inequities
of free trade
Military costs that
are shared more
widely
Sustaining a Nation during Transition
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Fuel should be made
available globally in markets
Importing fuels is good for
any economy
Policy should not discourage
fuel imports
At current prices, an
economy receives more
economic stimulation from
fuels than it pays out
Taxes on productive use of
fuels dampen an economy
Using fuels for unproductive
activity is a waste
Sustaining a Nation during Transition
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New policies should
emphasize:
Information innovation
Efficiency rather than
speed
Cooperation rather
than competition
Diversity rather than
conformity
Good maintenance
rather than growth
Suppression of
borrowing
Sustaining a Nation during Transition
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Security for
nations and
individuals
can be
sustained by
replacing
luxury and
waste
Sustaining People
Chapter 12
Sustaining People during Transition
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To sustain people
during transition, we
will need:
New levels of efficiency
A ceiling on personal
income (maximum
wage)
Public works programs
at a living minimum
wage
Sustaining People during Transition
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We will need:
To ensure full
employment, increase
productivity, and
reduce costs of
welfare and crime
Part-time work for
elders, elimination of
early retirement, and
protection of the trust
funds of social
security
Sustaining People during Transition
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We will need:
A universal public
baseline health
care system
Expensive
medicines may
continue to be
available through
private insurance
Sustaining People during Transition
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A tradition of free consumption hurts the
economy by wasting emergy
Sustaining People during Transition
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Our collective love
of the automobile
limits other
things – jobs,
health, education
and environment
quality
We can sustain for
some time what is
most important in
mature nations
Descent
Descent
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As we move into ‘descent’, what
should we expect, and how do we
react?
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Starting Down
Reorganizing Cities
Restoring Waters
Refreshing the Landscape
Transmitting Knowledge
Starting Down
Chapter 13
Starting Down – Beginning Descent
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There should be task
forces throughout
society working on
descent
Within one generation
we could see a
reversal of attitude so
that descent is good
and 20th Century
growth is bad
(very likely, already
happening)
Starting Down – Beginning Descent
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We should change
attitudes now to
avoid the
inefficiency of trial
and error
The education
system should teach
the changes
necessary for a
prosperous way
down
Starting Down – Beginning Descent
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To maintain the
standard of living, the
population has to
decrease at the same
or greater rate as the
empower
With less wealth
(emergy) to process,
the money supply
needs to be decreased
to avoid inflation
Starting Down – Beginning Descent
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Policies should stop
commodity exports
except those
necessary to
generate the dollars
for imported fuels
and information
Starting Down – Beginning Descent
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During descent
banks may acquire
new roles such as
financing contraction
Especially in a time
of descent the real
wealth system can
hold its monetary
value better than
bank savings
Starting Down – Beginning Descent
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A mechanism is
needed to
program a
gradual,
noncatastrophic
deflation of the
excess money
held in stocks and
bonds
Starting Down – Beginning Descent
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Perhaps the most
important descent
policy is cutting
salaries uniformly
They propose an
international
minimum living
wage, agreed to by
treaty
Starting Down – Beginning Descent
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Information centers
may be expected to
develop more around
mountains where hydro
power is more
abundant
If descent is to be
prosperous, priority
has to go to sustain
global information
systems
Starting Down – Beginning Descent
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To be prosperous,
descent requires a
reduced population,
less money, and
smaller salaries
Starting Down – Beginning Descent
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Governments and
banks will need to help
finance initiatives for
downsize and
redevelopment
The economy will issue
fewer stocks and
bonds, borrow less,
and develop lower
interest rates
Starting Down – Beginning Descent
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International treaties
can control global
capitalism with an
international minimum
wage
With less energy and a
shortened energy
hierarchy, some
achievements of the
climax civilization must
become dormant
Ancient
library of
Alexandria
Starting Down – Beginning Descent
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Landscapes can be
expected to organize
with fewer cars
Information and
medicine can be
given priority by
allocation of electric
power
Starting Down – Beginning Descent
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A deliberate plan for
change to avoid
apocalypse needs
global attention
People will need to
understand the
changes and share a
vision of a lessintensive but better
world
Maya
Starting Down – Beginning Descent
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Guidelines for Orderly
Descent
Make beneficial descent
the collective purpose
for this century
Dedicate TV drama,
literature, and art to
adventures about
descent
Accept small annual
declines in empower use
Teach descent
Starting Down – Beginning Descent
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Guidelines for Orderly
Descent
Maintain a stable emergy
use per person by
reducing populations in a
humanitarian way
Remove all incentives,
dogma, and approval for
excess reproduction
Reduce salaries and
wages as necessary to
maintain full employment
Reduce population,
maintain full
employment
Starting Down – Beginning Descent
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Guidelines for Orderly
Descent
Keep the emergymoney ratio stable by
adjusting the money
in circulation
Borrow less and
reduce expectations
of profit from stock
markets
Emergy/Money Ratio
Starting Down – Beginning Descent
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Guidelines for Orderly
Descent
Develop economic
incentives for
reducing consumption
Develop public opinion,
laws, and taxes to
discourage
unproductive resource
use
Starting Down – Beginning Descent
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Guidelines for Orderly
Descent
Sustain the
production of the
environment
Consolidate
knowledge for longterm preservation
Starting Down – Beginning Descent
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Guidelines for Orderly
Descent
Prioritize the
communication of
concepts of
international respect
and cooperation for
global sharing
Reorganizing Cities
Chapter 14
Reorganizing Cities during Descent
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Reintegrating cities with
their region of support
and influence may help
solve severe urban
problems while
preparing those cities for
the decentralization
expected in descent
While some cities are
still growing, the
reorganization to use
less fuels is underway in
many developed cities
Reorganizing Cities during Descent
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Decentralization is
aided if reduced
urban populations
can cluster around
smaller more
dispersed centers
Towns are already
developing at the
beltway-trunk line
junctions, starting
with the shopping
centers there
Reorganizing Cities during Descent
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In descent people
should move closer to
their jobs, use bikes
more, reduce car use,
parking space, and
fuel use
Bike Commuter
Reorganizing Cities during Descent
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A public works
program can help
make changes in city
structure while
keeping the poor and
unemployed in the
economy
Reorganizing Cities during Descent
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We can expect decentralized
cities to have:
Less-intense fuel
consumption
Less transportation
Less strip advertising
A smaller percent of regional
population
Better cycles of materials
between cities and
environment
Longer rotation of building
and renewal
More efficient spatial patterns
Reorganizing Cities during Descent
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Greens including
wetlands, ponds,
parks, retention
basins, and play
fields, can be added
to depopulated areas
City wetlands
Reorganizing Cities during Descent
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The inner city is
likely to retain
its roles as a
center of
information,
serving the
region through
communication
technology
Reorganizing Cities during Descent
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City and Regional
Reorganization
Adapt plans, zoning,
and incentives to
develop surrounding
towns (secondary
centers)
Provide frequent
public transport
connecting central
cities with the towns
Develop surrounding towns
Reorganizing Cities during Descent
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City and Regional
Reorganization
Include the
central city and its
suburban towns
within the same
regional
government and
taxing authority
Taxes from both the city and
region are combined used to
support both
Reorganizing Cities during Descent
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City and Regional
Reorganization
Plan now for times
when fuel costs
eliminate most
private cars
Limit strip
development and
unnecessary
advertising
Reorganizing Cities during Descent
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Central City
Keep the centers of
information in the
central city (libraries,
schools, finance,
universities,
government offices,
and computer centers)
Use communications to
connect the centers to
the people of the
region (television, the
Internet, phone
networks)
Keep information
centers in central
city
Reorganizing Cities during Descent
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Central City
Remodel and use the
buildings that
become vacant with
decentralization
Restrict cars from
centers of
information
Walking city centers
Reorganizing Cities during Descent
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Surrounding Towns
Restructure the
spatial distribution
of housing,
businesses, and
transportation so
that housing and
environmental
amenities can be
near the jobs
Reorganizing Cities during Descent
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Surrounding Towns
Encourage diversity of
business in smaller
centers to help the
one-stop shopping that
uses less
transportation
Transfer unemployed
and homeless people to
public works jobs in
redeveloping smaller
towns
Diverse small town shopping
Reorganizing Cities during Descent
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Environment
Encourage people
to reuse products,
to recycle materials
from consumers to
industry, and to
disperse only the
dilute, lowtransformity wastes
to the environment
Reorganizing Cities during Descent
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Environment
Use rural wetlands
for recycling city
storm waters and
wastewaters back
to nature
Rural Wetlands
Reorganizing Cities during Descent
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Environment
Perforate sidewalks
and parking lots to
increase percolation
of rain so that trees
can grow larger
The area of roots
receiving water and
nutrients needs to be
the same as the
crown of the mature
trees
Brick sidewalks let
trees grow larger
Reorganizing Cities during Descent
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Emergy Evaluations
Use emergy
evaluation to select
land uses with
maximum public
benefit (different from
maximum monetary
profit to individuals)
Use empower density
and transformity to
locate activities
Restoring Waters
Chapter 15
Restoring Waters during Descent

Hydrological
cycle
For prosperous descent, the economy as it selfdesigns can achieve more by fitting into the
global hydrologic cycle
Restoring Waters during Descent
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More empower is
generated by
adapting society
to the multiple
values of rivers,
estuaries, and
beaches
Restoring Waters during Descent
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Human
settlements and
the ecosystems
around the rivers
can reorganize so
that the economy
better fits the
water system
Highly urbanized river and coastal
ecosystems
Restoring Waters during Descent
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Nature’s treatments, properly
used, work for the economy so
that tax-driven technologies
don’t have to fill the same
functions:
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Use floodplains to maintain
water quality
Restore estuarine circulation
Remove jetties
Stop pumping coastal
groundwaters
Operate lower-intensity
aquaculture ponds
Restore reefs
Set levees back from the shore
Restoring Waters during Descent
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Coastal fisheries can
recover when fishing
pressure decreases
and some of the
nutritive discharges
are restored
Restoring Waters during Descent
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The energies of
mountain waters will
still be needed to
produce
hydroelectric power
for society’s
information systems
Hualien Hydroelectric Power
Refreshing the
Landscape
Chapter 16
Refreshing the Landscape during
Descent


During descent,
assuming
population
decrease, society
can reorganize
rural landscapes
symbiotically with
decentralized cities
Natural capital can
be restored
Symbiotic reorganization of
cities with rural landscapes
Refreshing the Landscape during
Descent

Environmental
contributions based
on renewable
resources can be
increased by
rotating lands,
reclaiming and
reforesting bare
lands, and
sustaining complex
forests and
biodiversity
Complex
forest
Rotating and fallowing fields
Refreshing the Landscape during
Descent


Less-intensive
agriculture and
forestry will
require more
lands and more
labor
Recycling can
replace most
mining
Labor-intensive rural farming
Transmitting Knowledge
Chapter 17
Transmitting Knowledge through
Descent

Part of global
information is in
the intellectual
knowledge of
society, and part is
biotic information
in the genes of
humans and the
Earth’s life-support
biodiversity
Transmitting Knowledge through
Descent

Sustaining the biotic
information
depends on
maintaining large
areas of diverse
ecosystems through
critical times of
transition when
human populations
exceed resources
Maintain vast areas of forest
Transmitting Knowledge through
Descent


There are resource
limits to the amount of
genetic and knowledge
information that can be
sustained
This is because of the
great wealth (in emergy)
used to develop and
maintain information
Information is a storage, and
(which means that its
like other storages requires
transformities are high)
energy to be maintained
Transmitting Knowledge through
Descent


Only part of our
information will be
used by our
civilization in
descent
For adaptability and
long range progress,
we also need to
preserve unused
knowledge
Ancient library of Alexandria in Egypt preserved
much unused knowledge from antiquity
Transmitting Knowledge through
Descent

To maintain
knowledge, the
institutions for
education,
communication,
and technology
will require large
amounts of
electrical power
Hydropower for electricity
Transmitting Knowledge through
Descent


Information processing
by television helps
develop a globally
shared culture and
peace ethic
But to be efficient,
society has to set
television priorities
among serious purpose,
advertisement, and
entertainment
Set TV Priorities
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
Serious purpose
..
..
..
..
..
..
Entertainment
Advertisement
Transmitting Knowledge through
Descent



Suggestions for
Educational
Efficiency
Reorganize
jurisdictions, laws,
taxes, and budgets
to give a stateapproved standard
education to all
children (Taiwan
has this)
Require this
standard for private
schools also
Transmitting Knowledge through
Descent



Suggestions for
Educational Efficiency
Provide daycare for
small children,
extending through
normal working hours
as an automatic part of
all schools
Provide preschool
orientation and help in
school to those of
different languages with
the goal that they can
be taught in the nations’
primary language
without handicap
School extending through
working hours of parents
Transmitting Knowledge through
Descent




Suggestions for
Educational Efficiency
Provide after-school
activities for all ages
Replace high-energy
interschool sports
teams – oriented
toward
championships and a
few stars – with
intraschool sports
that include all
students
Applies to US, not
Taiwan
Transmitting Knowledge through
Descent


Suggestions for
Educational Efficiency
Provide a unified
‘systems’ course in
energy, economics,
and environment
taught by teachers
trained to relate these
fields to global change
A ‘systems’ textbook
Transmitting Knowledge through
Descent



Suggestions for
Educational Efficiency
Let about half of what is
taught be according to
standards of federal,
state, and local
authorities, with the goal
of sharing common
knowledge and achieving
basic skills
Let the other half be left
for teachers to generate
innovations, creativity,
and progress
Creative learning activities
Transmitting Knowledge through
Descent


Suggestions for
Educational
Efficiency
Encourage the
use of new
technology like
computers and
the Internet,
experimenting
with various
new ways of
using these in
teaching
Transmitting Knowledge through
Descent



Suggestions for
Educational Efficiency
Organize school
schedules to occupy
students in learning
through the whole day
and year-round
Learning can include
after-class projects,
internships, and
vocational experiences
making use of
community help
Transmitting Knowledge through
Descent



Suggestions for
Educational Efficiency
Let schools
supplement medical
care, nutrition, and
job placement for
students who do not
get this at home
Use parent-teacher
activities to get more
community support
for all the children
Transmitting Knowledge through
Descent


Suggestions for
Educational
Efficiency
Organize districtwide programs for
racial and ethnic
variety in schools
Transmitting Knowledge through
Descent



Education is the
transmitter of knowledge
With the right kind of
downsizing, nonacademic
waste can be eliminated
and the university’s
intellectual functions
emphasized
The great university,
although smaller, may be
the best hope for leading
descent and preserving
knowledge from the Era
of Growth
The ‘great university’ is
small in size, but focused
solely on academic functions
Restoration
Stewardship for the Period of
Restoration

If the Earth is to
maximize its
performance
through the full
cycle of growth,
transition, descent,
and restoration, a
human culture will
be needed that
assists
environmental
restoration
Stewardship for the Period of
Restoration

We may expect ethics
to develop in which
people collectively aid
net production
processes that restore
the resource reserves,
the soils, the forests,
the peat deposits, and
the mineral deposits
moving slowly up from
the ground in the Earth
cycles
Stewardship for the Period of
Restoration

As sometimes attributed to past
cultures, people may find glory in
being an agent of the Earth
Stewardship for the Period of
Restoration

It remains to be
seen whether the
social mechanisms
will be conscious,
logical, emotional,
ritualistic,
regimented, or by
some means that
we can’t imagine
Stewardship for the Period of
Restoration

All members of
society must
preserve knowledge,
sustain progress,
and serve the Earth
in ways appropriate
to the stage of its
cycle