Transcript Slide 1

Presentation to MaineDOT
August 8, 2005
Economic & Transport
Trends Affecting
Maine’s Future
Glen Weisbrod
Economic Development Research Group, Inc.
2 Oliver Street, Boston, MA 02109
www.edrgroup.com
Topics
Integrating Transportation with the Economy
1. Maine Economy
2. Dependence on Links
to Outside Areas
3. External Factors
Providing Opportunity
for Maine’s Future
Economic Growth
2
1. The Maine Economy
…A foundation of core export sectors…
3
Basic (Traded) Industries
Maine Industries with Above-Average
Concentration of Jobs (Inflow of $)
Fish
Food Products
Forestry & Logging
Paper Mfg
Wood Products
Textile Mills
Textile Products
Largest Maine Industries
Retail Trade
Health Care
Government
Construction
Leather Products
Transport Equip
Waste Mgmt
Recreation
Accommodations
Insurance
4
Maine Exports
What’s New
• Technology Products
• Air Cargo Growth
• Int. Trade Corridors
Maine Exports
(Highest Value, ’02)
Paper
Electronics
Lumber/Wood
Fish
Industrial Machinery
Recipients
(Highest Value, ’02)
Canada
Singapore & Malaysia
Japan & Korea
UK & Belgium
China & Hong Kong
5
Site of Export from NE US
by Port of Exit, $ Billions of Value, 2002
J.F.K. INTL AIRPORT, N.Y.
$ 32.6
BUFFALO-NIAGARA FALLS, N.Y (LAND) $ 10.9
NEW YORK, NY - PORT
$ 10.6
LOGAN INTL AIRPORT-BOSTON
$ 4.6
LAREDO, TEXAS
$ 3.4
CHAMPLAIN-ROUSES PT., NY (LAND)
$ 3.0
NEWARK, NJ - PORT
$ 2.7
NEWARK INTL AIRPORT
$ 1.9
NEW ORLEANS INTL AIRPORT
$ 1.8
DETROIT, MICHIGAN (LAND)
$ 2.1
ALEXANDRIA BAY, NY (LAND)
$ 2.1
BALTIMORE, MD - PORT
$ 2.1
PHILADELPHIA INTL AIRPORT
$ 1.9
HIGHGATE SPRINGS-ALBURG, VT (LAND) $ 1.6
ANCHORAGE INTL AIRPORT
$ 1.2
NORFOLK, VA - PORT
$ 1.2
LOS ANGELES/LONG BEACH - PORT
$ 1.2
6
Maine Product Exports
Maine Exports ($1.8b) via
1 Calais
2 JFK Airport
3 Jackman
4 Buffalo, NY
5 Derby, VT
6 Eastport
7 Logan Airport
7
Expanding Markets
25%
20%
Value of Mfg
Population
15%
10%
Mfg
Shipment
Value
Freight Ton-Miles
5%
Population
0%
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
8
Freight tonmiles
Maine – Modal Reliance
Value $ Billions -- Freight To, From, Within Maine
1998
2
46
4
1
4
2020
10
132
10
5
6
% Growth
400%
187%
150%
400%
50%
Domestic
International
42
15
118
46
181%
207%
State Total
57
164
188%
Air
Highway
Rail
Water
Other
9
2. Dependence on Links
to Outside Areas
…Current Reliance on N-S Corridor…
10
Truck Flows to/from Maine
Truck Access
to/from Maine’s
Businesses
depends
critically on the
I-95 Corridor
through NYC
11
Highway Congestion
But Maine’s Access Route via I-95
and NYC is moving towards Gridlock!
1998
2020
12
Cross-Border Truck Flows
Currently New
England products
have larger volumes
crossing in Vermont
and NY State.
This becomes harder
to sustain with
increasingly
congested Interstate
highway Routes.
13
3. External Factors Provide
New Opportunity for Growth
…Trade Corridors…
14
Why a Corner of the
Action?
15
Why Left Out of US Planning?
Federal High Priority Corridors
16
An Alternative View
Emerging Global Trade Network
Integrated, Intermodal Logistics
17
NE Can-Am Connection
• U.S. -- Maine to northern tier of New Hampshire,
Vermont, and New York
• Canada provinces: Quebec, New Brunswick, Nova
Scotia, Prince Edwards Island
18
Common Economic Distress
aging population
high unemployment
low population growth
declining industries (paper, agriculture)
19
Limited E-W Connections
• Six N-S Interstate Highways
(I-95, I-93, I-91, I-89, I-87, I-81)
• No E-W Interstate north of I-90
• E-W link in Canada has detour
around Maine
Poor Access to prod.
centers in N. Midwest
(Lake Huron to Maine Coast =
600 mi by air, 2000 mi by road)
20
Potential for Trade Route
Region is between 2
Powerful Economic
centers: Boston Washington corridor to
the South and
Chicago - Quebec
corridor to the West
Hwy and Rail Route: Potential to
intersect with six North-South
interstate corridors within 500 miles
21
• Two corridors
account for 40% of
GDP of US and CA
• Region needs access
to US Midwest &
Canada to grow
Increasingly Global Economy
• Old connections
degrading due to
congestion and
over-concentration
• New connections justified by changing trade
routes (e.g., NAFTA) and emerging global
economy (air and seaport connections)
22
…On the Web
Northeast CanAm Connections
www.canamconnections.com
Transportation& Economic Development Conference
www.ted2006-littlerock.org
March 28-30, 2006
23
Contact Info
Economic Development Research Group, Inc.
2 Oliver Street, 9th Floor
Boston, MA 02109 USA
617-338-6775
www.edrgroup.com
Bibliography of Links to Reports on
Transportation & Economic Development
www.edrgroup.com/edr1/library
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