Transcript THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF RICE PRODUCTION IN ZAMBIA

THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF
RICE PRODUCTION IN ZAMBIA
Scoping and Verification Study
[September 2014]
OUTLINE OF PRESENTATION
OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
METHODOLOGY AND APPROACH
MAJOR FINDINGS
CONCLUSIONS
RECOMMENDATIONS
OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
Explore the agricultural sector’s potential for
wealth creation and employment creation in
Zambia;
Investigate agriculture crops and sectors with the
most potential for employment and wealth
creation;
Review existing literature to confirm existing
production volumes and productivity;
Review current policy context; and
Engage key stakeholders with regard to input
supply, production, processing and trading in rice
METHODOLOGY AND APPROACH TO
THE STUDY
The Study used the Rice Value Chain approach
and, in particular, the role that chain governance
plays in the success or failure of the State
achieving its rice development objectives;
The Study also used the Political Economy lens to
identify and deal with key issues within the Rice
Value Chain;
Data Collection
Key informant interviews
Field Visits
MAJOR FINDINGS
 Overall, the study reveals that:
 Despite government’s commitment to and frequent
calls for diversification in the agriculture sector, the
reality on the ground and, in particular, in the rice
sub-sector, bears little resemblance to the actual
politics of what works in terms of implementing and
sustaining increased wealth creation and employment
generation in the rice sub-sector.
 Zambia’s rice farmers are growing a crop that no
longer pays its way or increases employment and
wealth creation opportunities.
MAJOR FINDINGS
The Political Context and Setting
 The rice studies reviewed show that very little
attention is being paid to the broader concerns
of how political processes, actors, institutions,
events and ideologies inform and affect moves
towards developing the rice sector.
 Lack of attention to these concerns could result
in a live but fragile process that could be
undermined by various actors in the rice value
chain.
OVERVIEW OF THE AGRICULTURAL
SECTOR’S GROWTH RATE
20.0
15.0
% Change in GDP
10.0
5.0
0.0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
(5.0)
(10.0)
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
Agriculture
Forestry
Fishing
2011
2012
ANALYSIS OF GROWTH RATE,
EMPLOYMENT AND WEALTH CREATION
 Between 2009 and 2012, growth in the Agriculture,
Forestry and Fisheries sector averaged 7 percent,
exceeding the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture
Development Programme (CAADP) target of 6 percent.
 Between 2009 and 2012, the Agriculture, Forestry and
Fisheries sector’s contribution to GDP was 18.5
percent.
 Despite these growth rates, the sectors contribution to
job creation and poverty reduction has not been
impressive. Sector’s contribution to formal sector
employment was 77,932 in 2011 and 79,490 in 2012.
CROP GROWING HOUSEHOLDS
Crop Growing Households by Type of Crop Grown as a Percentage of All Crop Growing Agricultural
Households in Zambia
Crop
Number of
Percent
Crop
Number of
Percent
Households
Households
Maize
1,340,038
87.8
Soyabeans
110,317
Groundnuts
984,567
64.5
Other Crops
101,310
Sweet Potatoes
827,603
54.2
Irish Potatoes
81,396
Cassava
707,556
46.3
Bambara Nuts
65,605
Vegetables
508,846
33.3
Orchards
40,218
Mixed Beans
464,832
30.4
Burley Tobacco
26,426
Millet
250,524
16,4
Velvet Beans
21,868
Sunflower
191,677
12.6
Cashew Nuts
18,112
Cotton
145,598
9.5
Paprika
13,256
Sorghum
140,639
9.2
Virginia Tobacco
12,240
Cowpeas
124,002
8.1
Pineapples
4,887
Sugar Cane
115,989
7.6
Wheat
4,420
Rice
114,448
7.5
Coffee
2,008
7.2
6.6
5.3
4.3
2.6
1.7
1.4
1.2
0.9
0.8
0.3
0.3
0.1
THE RICE SUB-SECTOR
 Published statistics at the MAL and CSO indicates that
the production of paddy rice has been increasing since
1987.
 In 1987 production of paddy rice was 8,242 MT;
 Ten years later, production of paddy rice rose by 51.3
percent to reach a total of 12,473 MT;
 In 2007 production reached 18,314 MT;
 Between 2007 and 2014 paddy rice output rose by
171.0 percent to reach 49,640 MT;
 Increase is in response to demand from millers, traders
and rice brokers.
THE RICE SUB-SECTOR –TRENDS IN
PRODUCTION
Province
Central
Copperbelt
Eastern
Luapula
Lusaka
Muchinga
Northern
NorthWestern
Southern
Western
Totals
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Metric Tonnes
Metric Tonnes
Metric Tonnes
Metric Tonnes
Metric Tonnes
Metric Tonnes
259
57
610
15
2
18
34
37
43
71
30
4
5,120
5,779
4,418
2,361
2,424
900
3,311
1,885
2,653
3,490
3,537
2,254
156
115
204
45
23
37
-
-
-
8622
9267
6929
20,992
28,653
25,906
13,106
13,557
18,169
945
723
814
665
401
446
25
0
0
45
17
21
11,088
14407
14,762
16,901
15,490
20,862
41,930
51,656
49,410
45,321
44,748
49,640
THE RICE BALANCE SHEET
2008/09
Paddy
Rice
A.
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
A.
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
(i)
(ii)
A.
A.
A.
Availability
Opening Stocks
Total Production
Total availability
Requirements
Staple Food requirements
Food Reserve Stock
Industrial requirements
Stock Feed
Breweries
Seed
Losses
Cross border trade
Total Requirements
Surplus/Deficit
Potential
Commercial
import/export
Food
aid
import
requirements
2009/10
Paddy
Rice
2010/11
Paddy Rice
2011/12
Paddy Rice
2012/13
Paddy Rice
2013/14
Paddy Rice
2,799
24,023
26,822
178
41,929
42,107
na
na
na
4,641
49,410
54,051
7,058
45,321
52,378
2,737
44,747
47,484
36,048
0
52,011
0
na
na
64,164
0
58,473
0
55,769
0
0
0
0
1,201
0
0
0
2,096
na
na
na
na
0
0
0
2,471
0
0
4,223
2,266
0
0
4,478
2,237
37,249
-10,427
10,427
54,107
-12,000
12,000
na
na
66,634
-12,583
12,583
64,962
-12,548
12,583
62,484
-15,000
15,000
0
0
na
0
0
0
na
RICE PRODUCTION PROJECTIONS
Year
2013
2018
Rain-fed Upland
Area
Production
In
In
Ha
MT
Rice Projections 2013 to 2018
Rain-fed Lowland
Irrigated
Area
Production
Area
Production
In
In
In
In
Ha
MT
Ha
MT
Total
Area
In
Ha
25,200
21,000
7,200
10,500
36,000
42,000
50,400
63,000
14,400
31,500
3,600
10,500
7,200
31,500
Production
In
MT
72,000
126,000
MAJOR GAPS AND CHALLENGES IN
THE RICE SUB-SECTOR
The Study indicates that at the production
level there are four major gaps or challenges
to increased rice production. These are:
Low rice yields per hectare;
Inadequate research and variety
development
Erratic supply of inputs; and
High seasonality of labour
OTHER CHALLENGES IN THE RICE SUBSECTOR
Policy and legislative framework
There is no Cabinet approved policy to guide
the development of the rice sub-sector.
The absence of a comprehensive rice policy
has important funding implications for the rice
sub-sector.
OTHER CHALLENGES IN THE RICE SUBSECTOR
Chain governance
The term chain governance describes the extent
to which interactions between the chain
participants is organised. Generally speaking,
good chain governance occurs when some actors
in the chain work to parameters that are set by
others. There are three dimensions of
governance. These are:
Chain organization;
Institutions
Legislation and regulation
RECOMMENDATIONS
JCTR and its partners develop an advocacy
strategy that will support the Zambia Rice
Federation to develop the rice sector and enable
the sector achieve its full potential;
JCTR and its partners initiate an advocacy strategy
that promotes public-private dialogue;
JCTR and its partners develop an advocacy
strategy that ensures that MAL develops and
gets the rice policy approved within the next
twelve months.