Transcript 中国港口投资机遇与中远码头业发展战略研究

Geographical Patterns for the
China-EU Trade
COSCO
R&D
Wang Peng
March, 2010
E-mail: [email protected]
Introduction
International trade between China and EU
esp. Baltic sea region
Sea Way and Land bridge from China to
Europe
East terminals of the land bridge in China
West terminals of the land bridge in Europe
 Obstacles along the land bridge
Percentage GDP and international trade
China / World
China – share of the world trade value
25000
12
China
exports
0.7%
China
imports
0.7%
1980
0.9%
1.0%
Rank
26
1990
1.8%
1.5%
14
2000
3.9%
3.4%
10
2005
9.1
8.4
2006
7.5
%
8%
6.3
%
6.4
%
3
3
bln RMB
1970
10.1
10
20000
15000
20940.7
10.7
10.2
10
18232.1
15987.7
8.3
8
13582.3
12033.3
10965.5
9921.5
6
10000
4
5000
2
1854.8
451.8
0
0
1980
1990
2000
2001
2002
GDP value
2003
2004
2005
2006
GDP growth
1980
bn USD
Percent
of world
1991
bn USD
Percent
of world
2000
bn USD
Percent
of world
2005
bn USD
Percent
of world
China
2016
1.84
3766
1.69
10799
3.45
22257
5.0
USA
27190
24.76
57109
25.62
98828
31.54
124870
28.2
55145
24.34
59035
18.84
93976
23.1
Euro
Japan
10592
9.68
34022
15.26
46771
14.93
46723
10.5
India
1864
1.7
2515
1.13
4794
1.53
7492
1.69
5421
2.43
2511
0.8
6243
1.43
222884
100
313369
100
444330
100
Russia
World
109394
100
Major Chinese ports in 2008
(over 100ml tons)
100ml tons
Imbalance: Much larger cargo flow from
China to EU
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
-150
-200
import
export
imbalance
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Comparison of the International Trade
between China and some Baltic countries
Trade between China and some EU countries
export
import
Russia
Lithuania
Sweden
Russia
Lithuania
Sweden
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
Comparison of the International Trade
between China and some Baltic countries
—— the first half of 2009
11892
9590
10974
7410
1st half of 2008
1st half of 2009
import
Russia
20
11
Lithuania
Russia
Lithuania
export
Sweden
2620
2424
2315
1882425
296
Sweden
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
Unit: million US $
二、拓展亚欧大陆桥西段
Sea way from China to EU
Hamburg
Present Europe-Asia Continental
Land Bridge
Trans Siberian Railway
Moscow
Manzhouli
Dalian
Tianjin
Qingdao
Lianyungang
Vostochny
Pusan
Present Europe-Asia Continental
Land Bridge
 Trans Siberian railway:
- from Vostochny to the border of Finland,
11 days, high rate, busy infrastructure
 China to mid-Asia countries:
- from Qingdao, Lianyungang, Rizhao to
five mid-Asia countries (Kazakhstan,
uzbekistan, kyrgyzstan, tajikistan,
turkmenistan).
Present Europe-Asia Continental
Land Bridge
Some progress in China:
 9th, Oct. 2007, the first container train started from
Lianyungang, arrived at Moscow 15 days later.
 “Lianyungang——Moscow” international railway
container train, 8301 km, 16 days, from China,
through Kazakhstan, to Moscow (20 days less than
the sea way, 10 days less than Siberian way).
 Cost 500-800 USD less per container.
Present Europe-Asia Continental
Land Bridge
Some progress in China:
 25th, Apr. 2008, the first container train started from
Lianyungang, arrived at Hamburg in 18 days .
 “Lianyungang——Dostok(Kazakhstan)——
Moscow——Ventspils——Hamburg” international
railway container train.
 1870 tons tomato juice in 48 cars with 96
containers (20’’) .
Future Europe-Asia Continental
Land Bridge (Perspective)
BSR PortsMoscow
Manzhouli
Hamburg
Erlianhaote
Dalian
Tianjin
Qingdao
Lianyungang
Vostochny
Pusan
Western Terminals of the Continental
Land Bridge (perspective)
Ventspils
Riga
Klaipeda
Kaliningrad
Some obstacles for Europe-Asia Continental
Land Bridge
 high cost (2-3 times of the cost compared to sea
way)
 longer time due to customs procedures etc.
 imbalance of the cargo (cost of unnecessary
empty return containers)
 safety of the cargo
 short of cargo tracing information service
What do we need?
cooperation
Thank you !