Transcript 幻灯片 1 - Europa

A Trade SIA relating to the Negotiation of a
Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA)
between the EU and Canada
EU-Canada SIA: Civil Society Meeting
30 March 2011
Brussels
• Study team present:
– Dan Prud’homme – impact assessment team
– Adam Bleser – impact assessment team
– Selim Raihan – CGE and gravity equation modeller
Phases, timing and deliverables
3 phases, each culminating in deliverable/report
• Phase 1: Inception Report (end of July – beginning of
Sept.). flagging sustainability issues, data preparation,
includes consultations
• Phase 2: Interim Tech. Report (Sept. – Jan 2011)
quantitative and qualitative SIA including
workshop/consultations
• Phase 3: Final Report (Feb till April 2011) further
consultations, revised modelling and assessment,
recommendations
Presentation Outline
• Methodology
– Quantitative analysis: CGE model, E3MG model, gravity
models
– Qualitative analysis
• Key findings
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Macro-economic issues
Sectoral issues
Cross-cutting issues
Policy recommendations
• Discussion and future steps
Modelling: CGE Analysis
• What: CGE model measures potential CETA
– impacts on trade volumes and trade prices, by product
group
– macroeconomic impacts: welfare, real GDP, total exports
– labour market impacts: employment and wage rates
• How: fundamental assumptions; GTAP data,
per select countries; sectors, baseline,
scenarios
CGE liberalisation scenarios
Finally two scenarios have been run.
• Scenario A. 100% liberalisation of goods and less ambitious liberalisation
of services, using the services trade cost cuts employed in the 2008 Joint
Study multiplied by a factor of 0.6.
• Scenario B. 100% liberalisation of goods and ambitious liberalisation of
services, using the services trade cost cuts employed in the 2008 Joint
Study.
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The study also ran four liberalisation scenarios, which were run for the interim
report. These scenarios were finally simplified and amended based on the fact that
there was very limited variation specifically between differences in tariff
liberalisation in Scenarios A and C. The results are not included in this Final Report.
Due to perceived differences in rules of origin (RoO) preferred by Canada and the
EU, the model included two scenarios those attempted to account for the impact
from employing different sets of RoO in the CETA. Given problems with the
aggregation in GTAP sectors, this was abandoned in the final report.
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Modelling – E3MG model
• What: E3MG model
– Energy consumption, by user group and by fuel
– CO2/GHG emissions by sector, other atmospheric
emissions
– Macroeconomic and labour market impacts
• How: results for trade volumes and prices
from CGE model used; soft linkage
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Modelling FDI
• What:
– FDI flows in absence of barriers
• How:
– Augmented sectoral gravity models, OECD
Restrictiveness Index
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Qualitative research and analysis
• Desk research
– Case studies and other literature
– Stakeholder and expert opinion
SIA – CGE Macro-economic
assessment
• The CETA is expected to lead to overall gains in welfare, real
GDP, total exports, the balance of trade and wages in both
Canada and the EU over the long-term.
• These gains will be maximised under an agreement that offers
the highest degree of liberalisation.
• Specifically, the modelling estimates that the EU will
experience increases in its real GDP of 0.02% to 0.03% over
the long-term, while Canada is estimated to see increases
ranging from 0.29% to 0.36%.
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SIA – CGE Macro-economic assessment
(cont…)
• Increases in total exports are also expected over the longterm, ranging from a 0.07% increase in the EU to 1.56% in
Canada.
• These increases in exports are expected to improve the
balance of trade in both Canada and the EU, with Canada
likely to see the greatest improvements from the removal of
tariffs and the EU from the removal of barriers to trade in
services.
• In both Canada and the EU, the CETA is similarly expected to
lead to increased wages. Whereas increases in wages should
be fairly comparable between skilled and unskilled labour in
the EU, modelling results suggest wage rates for unskilled
labour in Canada will exceed increases for skilled labour.
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SIA – CGE Macro-economic assessment
(cont…)
• Third countries are estimated to experience minor degrees of
welfare loss as a result of the Agreement, though the overall
impact on these countries is insignificant, with GDP projected
to exhibit no noticeable change.
• Macro-economic results are estimated to differ significantly
from those generated by a similar modelling approach used in
the EU-Canada Joint Study (2008). Despite using the same
assumptions regarding cuts in tariffs and liberalisation of
services, this study estimates far less pronounced gains in real
GDP, welfare and exports over the long-term.
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Agriculture, Processed Agricultural
Products (PAPs) and fisheries
- Impact to be largely determined by level of liberalisation
- NTBs and Rules of Origin to heavily influence impact for
certain subsectors
Beef & Pork
- Liberalisation likely to lead to increased output, exports and
employment in Canada and decreases in exports and output
in the EU.
- Greater herd size in Canada could lead to greater release of
methane
- Rules of origin to influence outcome
Dairy
- Liberalisation could lead to increases in EU output, exports
and employment and decreases in Canadian output and
employment; benefits to Canadian consumers
- Supply management to influence outcome
- Improved minimum access and/or designation of
Geographical Indicators could still produce gains for EU
Other PAPs
- removal of tariffs could benefit output, employment and
exports in both Canada and the EU.
- Rules of origin for sugar to influence impact on Canada
- Gains also through greater harmonisation in labelling and
packaging requirements.
Alcoholic beverages
- End to discriminatory practices within Liquor Control Boards
(LCBs) could lead to greater EU exports and market share in
Canada.
- Social impact dependent on outcome of LCBs in Canada
Fisheries
- Removal of tariffs could lead to greater exports from Canada
(esp. frozen fish & seafood).
- Potential benefit to EU processors and consumers.
- EU could benefit from investment liberalisation in Canada
(e.g. lowering domestic ownership requirements for
commercial fishing licenses).
- Environmental risks: over-fishing in certain parts of the
Atlantic and increased reliance on aquaculture
- Could be mitigated through increased Canada-EU collaboration on
sustainable fisheries and enforcement of Total Allowable Catch.
Industrial products
- Generally low applied tariffs, particularly on mining, metal, oil,
coal and forest-based products
- Investment liberalisation likely to influence impact of CETA
(e.g. removal of net benefit tests through extension of
national treatment to EU investors)
Mining & Oil
- CETA could lead to increases in EU investment in Canada,
though impact likely limited
- Liberalisation of ownership restrictions in uranium could lead
to greater inward FDI in Canada; greater output.
- Overall, limited expected environmental impact
Transport equipment
- Removal of tariffs could lead to increased output and exports
in both EU and Canada.
- Rules of origin and differences in emission standards will play
an important role in determining impact
- EU producers of other transport equipment (e.g. aerospace)
projected to see limited declines in output and trade;
investment opportunities in Canada could be enhanced by
CETA
- Increased production could lead to greater GHG emissions
from auto industry; improvements in energy intensity could
help offset negative impact
Textiles
- Tariff liberalisation could have a positive impact on output,
exports of textiles and apparel for both EU and Canada
- EU could also experience gains in leather products
- Removal of NTBs could enhance gains for EU (e.g. free
circulation of goods between Provinces, improved
enforcement of IPR).
- Rules of origin will influence impact
- Increased demand for labour could have positive social impact
on low-skilled workers and in areas with lower industrial
diversification
Social impact
- Chapter on trade and labour could help improve quality and
decency of work and greater cooperation on implementation
of ILO’s Core Labour Standards and Decent Work Agenda
- Cooperation could help facilitate ratification within Canada of
all ILO Core Conventions.
Services
- Greatest scope for gains for both sides
- Largest impact to arise under CETA that provides greater
liberalisation within the services:
- e.g. liberalisation of investment, temporary movement of
professionals
Transport services
- Maritime transport services likely to be most greatly impacted
- Increased trade in merchandise likely to lead to increased
trade and output of maritime transport services in both EU
and Canada
- Liberalisation of feeder services and repositioning could
produce gains for both EU and Canada
- EU shipping companies could lower costs and increase efficiency
- Canada could see increased inward investment and greater
competitiveness
- Likely to lead to increase in associated GHG emissions.
- Shift from land to maritime transport and development of short-sea
shipping in Canada could have positive environmental impact
Telecom services
- Investment liberalisation could lead to significant increase in
EU investment and greater market share in Canada
- Canada could experience gains through
- improved competitiveness and technological acquisition;
- ability to expand into foreign markets over long-term
- Lower prices, improved service and greater selection for consumers
- EU could also benefit from non-discriminatory access to
infrastructure and networks
- Social impact likely to be minimal with effective separation of
content from carriage
Business services
- Liberalisation likely to increase trade and output in EU and
Canada
- Facilitating the temporary movement of professionals likely to
increase trade and investment between EU and Canada
- Framework for fostering Mutual Recognition Agreements for
professionals could ease restrictions and facilitate trade
Cross cutting issues – Government
Procurement (GP) (economic)
• ↑ in welfare that may translate into lower cost
public goods and services
• EU companies see ↑ in market share; Canadian
companies see a comparatively smaller increase in
market share
• Some ↓in Canada’s flexibility in making policy, and,
to a lesser extent, the EU’s (but note thresholds)
• Prohibition of offsets in Canada’s schedule will likely
have some ↓ econ/social impacts in the short-term
at least
GP (social)
• ↓ in social policy space possible related to human
feeding programs, etc
• Prohibition of set-asides for Aboriginal (and minority)
business = some ↓effects on employment and culture
• No significant + or – impacts on quality of goods and
services, but some impacts (+ and –) possible
• Decency and quality of work: currently unclear how CETA
would influence current initiatives towards Social
Considerations in Public Procurement and “fair wages,”
although disallowing these initiatives =negative impacts
GP (environment)
• If it removes flexibility in green procurement =
negative impacts on the environment
• Could remove offsets, which under certain
circumstances could create some negative impacts
on the environment, although could be mitigated by
foreign clean tech.
IPR (economic, social)
• Potential positive impact on R&D spending in Canada
• Will likely significantly reduce counterfeiting and
piracy level in Canada
• Will likely have significant adverse impacts on
consumers of pharmaceutical products in Canada
• Positive impact on EU in terms of additional
revenues
Investment (economic)
• Removal barriers to investment, which could contribute to a
small increase in GDP growth in Canada and even smaller
growth in the EU.
• Investment Chapter in CETA could encourage economic
benefits including those for multinational companies,
including potentially increasing FDI flows and stimulating the
flows of capital and differentiated goods
• Investment Chapter may create some reductions in economic
policy space
• ‘third country incorporation’ provision could allow a wide
range of investors from third countries to sue the EU and
Canada
Investment (social)
• Positive social impacts from investment encouraged
under CETA as a whole (decency and quality of work,
innovation)
• Negative social impacts from investment encouraged
under CETA as a whole (e.g. inequality and worker
displacement)
• Questionable that including ISDS in CETA would
create a net/overall social sustainability benefit for
the EU and/or Canada
Investment (environment)
• Could encourage increased innovation in green
technology
• Potential reduction in environmental policy space
from ISDS, which could have a variety of negative
impacts on different environmental indicators.
Trade facilitation, labour mobility,
free circulation of goods
• Trade facilitation: limited impacts, but necessary to
offset increased trade costs from new ROO under
CETA
• Labour mobility: likely positive contribution to
production, output and exports in CAN and EU;
encourages tech. innovation which has potential
social and environ. benefits for CAN, EU, other
countries
• Free circulation of goods: Improvements in Canada’s
productivity, particularly focused within the
agriculture and agri-foods sector.
Competition policy (economic)
• Removal of discriminatory practices of the Canadian
liquor control boards could improve the transparency
of the Canadian regulatory regime and encourage
competition
• Removal of discriminatory practices of the Wheat
Board could create economic benefits to Canadian
farmers. The EU could also potentially increase
market share in the grains regulated by the Board.
• Removal of state aid policies could have a variety of
economic impacts.
Competition policy (social)
• Removal of discriminatory practices of liquor boards
will not necessarily undermine public health and
safety objectives as the Canadian government would
retain the most important policy tools for reducing
over-consumption of alcohol
• Removal of state policies could have a variety of
social impacts.
Consultation Process
– Conducted since August 2010:
• Direct contact of listed stakeholders (over 350
contacted)
– Website and publications/newsletter/discussion forum
– Telephone interviews
– Email correspondence
– Submission of position papers and other documents
– Workshop in Canada
– Meetings (civil society in Brussels, PSC, other mtgs)
• Considered in baseline and analyses of impact
assessments
Policy
Recommendations
Moving forward
• Integrate feedback from March 30th Steering
Committee meeting and civil society meeting
in Brussels
• Integrate feedback from other open
consultations (open till 11 April 2011)
• Provide revised version of report to EC by end
of April
Discussion