Transcript Slide 1

How Many Bachelor’s Degrees Does
Florida Need by 2025?
Commission on Higher Education Access and Attainment
September 26, 2012
Tampa, Florida
Supporting Information
Presentation by Jan Ignash, Board of Governors
www.flbog.edu
Percentage of 2010 Population (25-34)
with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher
2
Florida is
ranked 37th
41%
28%
35%
37%
29%
31%
29%
28%
overall and
last among the
ten most
populous states
in the percent of
its 25-34 year old
population with a
Bachelor’s or
higher.
26%
25.6%
USA:
31%
BIG 10: 31%
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
Quartile
Quartile
Quartile
Quartile
Source: National Center for Higher Education Management
(NCHEMS) analysis of American Community Survey (ACS)
Educational Attainment by Degree-Level and Age-Group –
see link.
www.flbog.edu
Percentage of Florida’s 2010 Population
with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher
3
By Gender and Age Group
Relative to National Average
35%
3%
30%
2%
1%
25%
0%
20%
-1%
15%
-2%
-3%
10%
-4%
5%
-5%
0%
-6%
25-34
35-44
MEN
45-64
WOMEN
65 PLUS
TOTAL
TOTAL
25-34
35-44
MEN
45-64
WOMEN
65 PLUS
TOTAL
TOTAL
Florida needs to increase Adult Education Enrollment Efforts
• Florida’s younger men trail women of the same age and older men.
• Florida’s current 25-34 year old population, both men and women, trail the national
averages.
Source: Board staff analysis of American Community Survey
(ACS) Educational Attainment by Degree-Level and AgeGroup.
www.flbog.edu
4
Florida’s Production of Bachelor’s Degrees per 18-24yr Population
Is Below the National Average
63.5
54.9
69.4
53.4
55.4
43.0
47.6
Florida is
ranked 34th
in the ratio of
bachelor’s
degrees awarded
per 1,000
18-24 year olds.
41.3
40.5
48.2
USA:
52.7
BIG 10: 52.1
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
Quartile
Quartile
Quartile
Quartile
Source: National Science Foundation State Indicators (table
8-16) – see link. Note: The most recently available data is
for 2009.
www.flbog.edu
5
Florida’s per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
is among the lowest in the country
$51,880
$33,390
$38,930
$44,770
$35,920
$45,680
$39,660
Florida is
ranked 40th
in its per capita
GDP for 2010.
$37,120
$44,270
$34,980
USA:
$41,840
BIG 10: $40,660
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
Quartile
Quartile
Quartile
Quartile
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Per capita real GDP by
state in 2010 measured in chained (2005) dollars – see link.
www.flbog.edu
Florida’s per capita Net Earnings (by place of residence)
is among the lowest in the country
6
Florida is
ranked 45th
$42,100
$29,700
$34,600
$38,600
$31,900
$38,700
$30,500
$32,400
$38,200
$27,500
USA:
$35,600
BIG 10: $34,400
overall and
last among the
ten most populous
states in per capita
Net Earnings by
place of residence
in 2011.
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
Quartile
Quartile
Quartile
Quartile
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Net Earnings
by place of residence – State income and
employment summary (table SA04). US Census
Bureau (July 2011 population estimate for 18yr old
and older). Note: Net earnings is earnings by place of
work (the sum of wage and salary disbursements,
supplements to wages and salaries, and proprietors’
income) less contributions for government social
insurance, plus an adjustment to convert earnings by
place of work to a place-of-residence basis.
www.flbog.edu
7
Florida ranked 33rd in Knowledge Jobs
in 2010 New Economy Index
PERCENTILE RANK
75-100
50-75
25-50
0-25
Source: New Economy Index 2010 report ranked Florida as 21 st
in the Nation, but 33rd in Knowledge-based jobs - see link. Note:
“knowledge jobs” indicators in this section measure seven
aspects of knowledge-based employment – see p.14.
www.flbog.edu
The U.S. College Attainment Gap
8
Compared to the Most Educated OECD Countries
35 to 44
45 to 54
55 to 64
39%
42%
40%
40%
41%
34%
32%
22%
27%
28%
20%
17%
18%
11%
20%
29%
31%
27%
36%
41%
43%
36%
25%
24%
21%
34%
35%
44%
47%
40%
30%
41%
56%
51%
54%
56%
45%
41%
39%
40%
39%
50%
53%
60%
56%
25 to 34
10%
0%
Canada
Korea
Japan
New Zealand
Ireland
Norway
France
Belgium
Austrailia
United States
Source: Closing the College Attainment Gap between
the U.S. and Most Educated Countries, NCHEMS see link.
www.flbog.edu
Education Pays:
Median Earnings and Tax Payments by Education
9
$120,000
After-Tax Earnings
Taxes Paid
$100,000
$100,000
$91,900
$25,600
$23,100
$80,000
$67,300
$55,700
$60,000
$39,700
$40,000
$33,800
$24,300
$20,000
$8,700
$42,000
$13,000
$9,300
$68,800
$7,100
$4,700
$19,600
$16,200
$42,700
$26,700
$31,000
$32,700
High School
Graduate
Some College,
No Degree
Associate
Degree
$74,400
$51,100
$Not a High
School
Graduate
Bachelor's
Degree
Master's
Degree
Doctoral
Degree
Professional
Degree
Source: College Board, Education Pays (2010)
Note: Based on 2008 data from full-time, year-round workers aged 25 and older. Taxes paid include
federal income, Social Security, Medicare, state and local income, sales and property taxes,
www.flbog.edu
10
Increased Educational Attainment
Reduces Need for Social Services
Poverty Rate (25yrs and older)
30%
25%
24%
25%
20%
15%
13%
12%
9%
10%
8%
5%
5%
4%
0%
Less than
HS graduate
Higgh School Some College or Bachelor's or
graduate
Associate's
higher
FLORIDA
USA
Sources: Unemployment data from U.S. Bureau of Labor
Statistics. Poverty data from US Census, 2006-10
American Community Survey (table S1501).
www.flbog.edu
Supply Methodology: Historical growth trends
11
2010 Graduate Degree Production
in Ten Biggest States
California
66,547
New York
67,910
Average Annual Growth in Graduate Degrees
(2003-2010)
83,026
North Carolina
82,102
Florida
Texas
40,127
49,448
Texas
Illinois
40,841
48,468
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
34,000
Florida
Ohio
22,487
Michigan
Georgia
16,304
38,521
28,352
21,176
5.1%
4.9%
4.8%
Georgia
43,135
29,386
5.7%
4.4%
New York
4.0%
California
4.0%
BIG 10
3.9%
Illinois
3.8%
26,765
20,262
Ohio
North Carolina
15,388
0
19,343
20,000
2.7%
Michigan -0.1%
40,000
Masters
60,000
80,000
100,000
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
Doctoral
Sources: U.S. Department of Education. National Center for Education Statistics (IPEDS) data.
www.flbog.edu
Actual and Projected Public High School Graduates
12
with Standard Diplomas in Florida
180000
160000
FLDOE projects
flat growth for
standard
diplomas*
through 2016.
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
Continue Education in FL
Standard Diplomas
2019-20
2018-19
2017-18
2016-17
2015-16
2014-15
2013-14
2012-13
2011-12
2010-11
2009-10
2008-09
2007-08
2006-07
2005-06
2004-05
2003-04
2002-03
2001-02
2000-01
0
Historically,
48% - 55%
of standard
diploma recipients
enroll in Higher Ed
in Florida.
Projected Standard Diplomas
Source: BOG staff analysis of FLDOE diploma projections to
2015-16 (as of Feb, 2012) and FETPIP Annual Outcomes
Reports. Note*: projections do not include Race to the Top
goals, or graduation rate increases.
www.flbog.edu
13
Percentage of Florida’s18-24 Year Olds Enrolled in College
Is Below the National Average
38%
39%
40%
35%
37%
41%
41%
33%
Florida is
ranked 31st
in the percent of its
18-24 year olds
who are enrolled in
Higher Education
31%
32%
34%
USA:
36%
BIG 10: 36%
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
Quartile
Quartile
Quartile
Quartile
Source: NCHEMS staff analysis of IPEDS Fall Enrollment
Survey and US Census Population estimates – see link.
Note: The most recently available data is for 2009.
www.flbog.edu
14
Florida’s Projected Undergraduate Enrollment in 2025
Additional Undergraduate Enrollment in Florida
200,000
Florida’s 18-24 year old
population is projected to
increase by 147,000
from 2010 to 2025.
152,200
150,000
If Florida enrolls 34% of the
18-24yr old population in 2025,
then Florida is projected to add
50,000 undergraduates.
120,500
100,000
107,200
93,900
86,200
57,200
45,100
50,000
50,300
33,100
22,900
If Florida enrolls 36% of the
18-24yr old population in 2025,
then Florida will add more than
85,000 undergraduates.
11,500
0
in 2010
Florida (34%)
in 2015
in 2020
National Average (36%)
in 2025
Top 20 (40%)
Source: EDR population estimates
(Nov. 2011) for 18-24 year old age
group (average between 2020 and
2030 projection) – see link. Note:
EDR projects the 20-24 age group will
grow faster than 18-19 age group.
www.flbog.edu
15
Domestic Migration Overview
• Typically, most of Florida’s population growth is from net migration.
• In 2030, net migration is forecast to represent 87 percent of Florida’s
population growth.
Source: EDR, May2012 – see link.
www.flbog.edu
16
Florida’s Future Population Growth is Slower & Older
Florida’s Projected Growth by Age
Historically, population growth
has been the Florida’s primary
engine of economic growth.
However, Florida’s overall
population growth is forecast
to remain relatively flat –
averaging between 0.8% and
1.1% between 2010 and 2030
(compared to the 3% annual
rate from 1970 to 1995).
EDR estimates that the
majority of Florida’s growth
over the next two decades will
be from people 60 years old
and over.
SOURCE: EDR, May 2012 – see link.
www.flbog.edu
17
Nonagricultural Employment by Industry
Florida, July 2012 (Seasonally Adjusted)
Education and Health
Services
15.4%
Professional and
Business Services
14.9%
Leisure and
Hospitality
13.2%
Other Services
4.1%
Financial Activities
6.6%
Total Government
14.8%
Information
1.8%
Trade, Transportation,
and Utilities
20.7%
Construction
4.2%
Manufacturing
4.3%
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics Program, released August 17, 2012.
Prepared by: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics Center.
17
www.flbog.edu