Transcript The Argentine Paradox

Argentina Vs. Chile:
Delegative or Constitutional
Democracy?
Maxwell A. Cameron
UBC
Poli 332
Argentina
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Pop 40 million
1/3rd size of US
0 migrants per 1000
97% white
97% literate
GNP $585 billion
Per capita $14,500
Gini index .49
Debt $135 billion
(51% GDP)
Chile
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Pop 16 million
Smaller than BC
4% Mapuche
96% literate
GNP $250 billion
Per capita
$15,400
• Gini index .55
• Debt $64 billion
Argentina has many
advantages
• Few mines, peasants (not an enclave or
plantation economy)
• Abundant land, “estancias” (ranches)
– Hence less need for labor repression
• Independence process less destructive than
elsewhere
• Not a major colonial center until after 1776 (when
it became a viceroyalty)
• Wealthy bourgeoisie (“Pampa bourgeoisie”) that
produced cereal, wool, beef
• Homogeneous population, large immigration
from Europe
Yet a troubled History
• Ruthless caudillos in the 19th century
• Collapse of oligarchic state and rise of Radicals
threatens elite interests
• Military response and rise of Peronism in 1940s
and 1950s
• Military coups in 1960s and 1970s: bureaucratic
authoritarianism
• Democratic transition followed by neoliberalism
delegative democracy under Menem
• Financial chaos in 2001, rise of Kirchners
Challenges Unfulfilled
• Transform pampa bourgeoisie into a
modern agro-exporting capitalist class
• Incorporate labor and solve the “social
question” on the basis of constitutional
representative democracy
• Elite consensus on democratic system
Argentine Peculiarities
• No peasantry - implications for class
alliances
• Early industrialization, extensive immigration
and labor militancy
• Volatile prices - implications for investment
In short: no stable basis of domination, shifting
alliances (populist alliance, reactionary
alliance)
Peronism and Its Legacies
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Fears of organized labor
Military coup of 1930 ousts Yrigoyen
Peron, secretary of labor, then elected
ISI strategy and labor incorporation
Ousted in 1955
Frondizi’s impossible game
BA coups in 1966, 1976
Dirty War and defeat in the
Falklands/Malvinas
Menem and the Reinvention
of Peronism
• After Alfonsin: trials, debt, and
hyperinflation
• Menem emerges in 1989 with neoliberal
strategy
• Growth, stability … then collapse in 2001
• Riots, piqueteros, “que se vayan todos”
• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rm97EeqKzsc
Emergence of Kirchners,
Nestor and Cristina
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Return to a heterodox strategy
Classic populist politics
Human rights trials
Problems with farmers
Is Chile a ‘Success’ Story?
• Distant realm of Spanish empire
• Relatively homogeneous population
• Brief period of anarchy after independence
• Strong democratic institutions
• Sustained economic growth
And yet: high inequality and incomplete democracy
(authoritarian enclaves)
Chile is a country that experienced a high level of
polarization in its politics
Polarization
• Mining economy - struggles over natural
resources
– Silver, copper, nitrates
• Tradition of labor militancy
– Especially around mining enclaves
• Workers native born
– Unlike in Argentina’s massive immigration
• Strong socialist tradition within a strong
democratic context
Chile’s History of Polarization
• Chile has a strong and long-standing
democratic tradition, but…
• Within context of orderly rule, a struggle
between president versus parliament in
19th century
• 20th Century social question: Fear among
oligarchs leads to pattern of reform and
reaction, but mostly within the constitutional
order
Challenges
• Competitive
elections (with 3
tendencies)
Overcoming
centrifugal
competition
• Parties forced into
coalitions
Building a durable
political centre
• Highly democratic
(presidential)
system
Radicalization of
democracy
Allende’s (1970-73) Significance
• Failure of reforms under Christian
Democrats
• Allende wins with 36 percent of vote
• The “democratic road” to socialism
• Populist economics
• Nationalization of copper and other foreign
firms
• US destabilization - role of Nixon/Kissenger
• Coup in 1973 - most violent in Latin America
Pinochet Regime (1973-1990)
• Highly repressive - response
to level of threat perception
• Forerunner of neoliberalism
(Chicago Boys)
• Not a BA regime, but not
personalist either
• Legal dilemmas: defender of
the constitution or violator?
• 1980 constitution
• 1989 plebiscite
Concertacion (1990-2010)
• Alliance of Christian
Democrats and Socialists
(exclusion of
Communists)
• Neoliberal economy
• Binomial electoral system
• Symptoms of malaise:
apathy, lack of partysociety linkages
• Does Chile need a
“constitutional moment”?
Aylwin 1990-94
Frei 1994-2000
Lagos 2000-06
Bachelet 2006-10
Piñera 2010-
Latin America’s Two Lefts
• Nestor & Cristina Kirchner vs. Michelle Bachelet
• Populism versus social democracy?
• Governments of the left reflect countries in
which they emerge
• Argentina: lack of stable domination by Pampa
bourgeoisie, weak state institutions, populism
and anti-populism
• Chile: high level of polarization, strong state
institutions, influence of radical but democratic
socialism, post-Pinochet depoliticization