Transcript Underlying Principle: Commitment to achieving the GPRS II

Underlying Principle:
Commitment to achieving the
GPRS II objectives and MDGs
Objectives of the GPRS II
• Goal – per capita income of $1000 by 2015
GDP per capita in USD
800
700
600
500
400
GDP per capita in USD
300
200
100
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
0
Objectives/Priorities of the GPRS II
– Continued macroeconomic stability
(overlap with another UP)
– Accelerated private sector-led growth
– Vigorous human resource development
(overlap with APR discussion)
– Good governance and civic responsibility
(overlap with another UP)
Continued macroeconomic stability
Overall Progress: Progressing
• Growth : 3.5% growth (4.7% in APR), below original target of 8% (revised to 5.9%)
• Inflation : Rose from 19.8% in January 2009 to a peak of 20.7% in July, falling to 15.9% in
December 2009, and to 13.2% in March 2010.
• Fiscal Deficit : Brought down from 14.5% of GDP in 2008 to 9.7% in 2009, just missing the
IMF-ECF target of 9.4%. Down from 20.1 to 11.0 % of GDP including arrears.
• Debt sustainability remains ‘moderate’ but risk of debt-distress is increasing; pressure on
debt is an inevitable consequence of high fiscal deficit
• External Sector : Foreign reserves around 3 months of import cover by December ($3.2bn),
just meeting the target
• Financial Sector : Stood up well in the face of global financial crisis. Non-performing loans
reached 16.2% of gross loans in December 2009, from 7.7% in December 2008
• Structural Measures : Some progress on establishing Ghana Revenue Authority but still a lot
to do with Business environment, Public wage bill, Oil and Gas, Energy subsidies, Statutory
earmarked funds.
Private Sector-Led Growth
• Overall progress: Slow
• Key indicators related to private sector competitiveness particularly
around interest rates, access to credit, cost of doing business
indicators, competitiveness of environment for doing business relative to
other countries and firm level competence have not been met.
• Private sector growth has not transformed the economy, as two
commodity exports (gold and cocoa) still drive growth. Non-traditional
exports have increased in the last 5 years, but stagnated in 2009.
• The rise in incomes can be partially correlated with private sector
investments (domestic and foreign) which contributed to growth.
However, significant geographical disparities remain in the distribution of
wealth and limited investments and private sector development can be
seen in poorer regions such as the three Northern Regions
Human Resource Development
Overall progress - progressing
MDG
APR Analysis
DP Observations
1.Extreme poverty and hunger
Halve the proportion of people below
the national poverty line by 2015
Achieved
Achieved, though wide disparities remain between
regions
Achieved, though wide disparities remain between
regions. Moreover, data are from GLSS 5
(2005/6), which was before the food price
increases. GLSS 6 will be an important source of
new data.
Potentially, though there are concerns about the
accuracy of 2009 EMIS data. There are major
differences between EMIS and DHS data.
Halve the proportion of people who
suffer from hunger
Achieved
2.Universal primary education
Achieve universal access to primary
education by 2015
Potentially
3.Gender equality
Eliminate gender disparity in primary
and junior secondary education by 2005
Achieve equal access for boys and
girls to senior secondary by 2005
4.Under-five mortality
Reduce under-five mortality by two-thirds
by 2015
5.Maternal mortality
Reduce maternal mortality ratio by threequarters by 2015
Probably
Not met. 2005 has already past and small levels of
gender disparity persist.
Potentially (the current trajectory places Ghana just
below meeting the target – but with extra effort, the
target could be achieved).
Potentially
Potentially, though dramatic efforts required
Probably
Unlikely. The baseline for MMR used by
Government is 740/100,000 live births. Results
from the Maternal Mortality Survey conducted in
2007 reveal that Ghana’s maternal mortality ratio
stands at 451 deaths for every 100,000 live births.
The high ratio is also confirmed by the high number
of maternal deaths reported by health institutions,
indicating that Ghana is off-track to meet MDG 5.
Potentially
Human Resource Development
Overall progress - progressing
MDG
APR Analysis
DP Observations
6.HIV/AIDS & Malaria
Halt and reverse the spread of
HIV/AIDS by 2015
Potentially
Halt and reverse the incidence of
malaria
7.Ensure environmental
sustainability
Integrate the principles of sustainable
development into the country policies
and programmes and reverse the loss
of environmental resources.
Half the proportion of people without
access to safe drinking water by 2015
Lack of data
Potentially. The prevalence rate in 2008
in roughly the same as that in 2000,
though reversal still needs to occur
(according to the HIV Sentinel Site
Surveillance Survey).
Lack of data
Lack of data
Lack of data is a constraint.
Probably
8.Global partnership for
development
Deal comprehensively with debt and
make debt sustainable in the long
term
Potentially
Achieved for water.
While Ghana has not reported to the UN
on the sanitation target, it is unlikely to be
met based on data from the 2008 DHS
and 2006 MICS. This takes into account
the new MDG indicator on unshared
sanitation facilities.
Potentially
Good Governance and
Civic Responsibility
Overall progress: Progressing
• Major civil society groups now included in dialogue
• National Governance Roundtable organized
• Gaps include:
– low overall investment in governance institutions which in turn compromises
respect for human rights and democratic principles;
– significant tolerance for corruption in society, the lack of ethics and integrity;
– lack of public confidence in governance institutions;
– lack of access to justice and public safety;
– challenges to managing accountability & transparency;
– plural system of governance;
– politicization and non-inclusive nature of decision-making processes;
– need for democratic and civic education; and
– support for the constitutional review process.
Looking Forward . . . .
• Urgent need for a new GPRS or MTDF
document
• Continued allocation and release of funds to
social services is required to reverse the
declines in recent years.